Russian Military losses

[thorwald77]

The war in the East was more than a list of battles and operations

I agree, but "ehi, dove è resto" Where's the rest?

[Art]

I put Krivosheev's data on an Excel spreadsheet, the Armies and Fleets add down to 10,171,358 irrecoverable losses. He has a list of 94 battles that add down to 7,822,439. There is a difference of 2,348,919, Where's the rest?

Losses in actions that were not counted as major operations by K.

We know Operation Mars is missing from the list.

You have an old edition apparently. From 2001 and on there is "Rzhev-Sychevka offensive operation" in the list:
http://rus-sky.com/history/library/w/w0 ... c536603408

[Art]

losses by the non operational forces in the interior.

Not counted by K. at all. It's pretty obvious when you compare K. totals with sums by fronts and independent armies. They are practically the same.

[thorwald77]

You have an old edition apparently. From 2001 and on there is "Rzhev-Sychevka offensive operation" in the list:

Thanks Art, I was working with the 1997 English translation, I need to update the list of battles and operations using the 2001 Russian ed.


However, the list of fronts and fleets shows 10.171 million irrecoverable losses, losses of the interior forces are not covered. My question still is, " Where is the rest"?

[Art]

Dead of wounds are not counted. Or, saying more accurately, included in the number of wounded.

[thorwald77]

Art you see now that the details of the battles/fronts does not agree with the figure of 8.668 million.

Soviet Losses in Millions
Irr Losses per details 10.171
Returned SU (1.836)
Died Wounds 1.103
Reservists .500
Net losses 9.938

[thorwald77]

The reason for our difference may be Krivosheev's adjustments for undercount of POWs

Irrecoverable losses
Balance per 51 individual battles 6,282,251
Balance per 73 separate OPs 2,124,453
Total 8,406,704

Balance per Fronts Fleets 10,171,358

Difference 1,764,654

From Krivosheev's main reconciliation
MIA Balance per original reports 3,305,600
MIA Balance adjusted (5,059,000)
Difference 1,754,000

Krivosheev says there is a bump up of 1.163 million for POWs and 500,000 reservists plus adjs. for border troops

I would not bet the farm on those stats for the 51 individual battles and 73 separate OPs.

[Art]

Art you see now that the details of the battles/fronts does not agree with the figure of 8.668 million.

Soviet Losses in Millions
Irr Losses per details 10.171
Returned SU (1.836)
Died Wounds 1.103

Minus 0.9 mln recovered missing.

Reservists .500

Nor counted in 8.6 mln demographic losses.

[thorwald77]

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss. He presented the detailed losses on schedules for the fronts and fleets


Details per Krivosheev details of Fronts/Fleets

• KIA 5,187,200
  MIA/POWs 4,455,600
  Non Combat deaths 541,900
  Subtotal ennemerated losses 10,184,700
  Released POWS (2,016,300)
  Reservists 500,000
  Balance Per Krivosheev 8,668,400
  
  Additions
  Died of Wounds 1,100,300
  Border troops 159,100
  Corrected Balance 9,927,800

Not included with the losses of the Fronts/Fleets are 1,000,000 reservists liable for service but probably died as POWs or deserted, 267,400 personnel who died of sickness in hospital and 994,300 convicts.

The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men. Krivosheev's 8.668 million was not a demographic loss. The military demographic loss was in fact 13-14 million.

[thorwald77]

Krivosheev tells us a story that there were 939,700 MIA's that were cut off and later recovered and then he deducted 500,000 reservists, 1,439,700 in total. I always check a story that is told by a Soviet official.

• Losses of forces in Krivosheev's details
  KIA 5,187,200
  Non Combat deaths 541,900
  DOW 1,100,300
  Border troops 159,100
  POWS/MIA 4,455,600
  Reservists 500,000
  Returned to the USSR (1,836,000)
  Irrecoverable Losses 10,108,100
  
  Krivosheev's deductions
  DOW (1,100,300)
  Border troops (159,100)
  Pows in western countries (180,300)
  Deductions (1,439,700)
  
  Krivosheev's Balance 8,668,400

• KIA 5,187,200
  Non Combat deaths 541,900
  POWs/MIA 4,955,600
  Recovered POWS (2,016,300)
  Irrecoverable losses 8,668,400

IMO Krivosheev's story about the 939,700 MIA's that were cut off and later recovered is дезинформация/disinformation meant to confuse the reader.

[ljadw]

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss. He presented the detailed losses on schedules for the fronts and fleets


Details per Krivosheev details of Fronts/Fleets

• KIA 5,187,200
  MIA/POWs 4,455,600
  Non Combat deaths 541,900
  Subtotal ennemerated losses 10,184,700
  Released POWS (2,016,300)
  Reservists 500,000
  Balance Per Krivosheev 8,668,400
  
  Additions
  Died of Wounds 1,100,300
  Border troops 159,100
  Corrected Balance 9,927,800

Not included with the losses of the Fronts/Fleets are 1,000,000 reservists liable for service but probably died as POWs or deserted, 267,400 personnel who died of sickness in hospital and 994,300 convicts.

The ADK study documented a demographic loss of 26.613 million. 20.051 million men and 6.562 million women. The gap between men and women in the total population increased by 13.5 million men. Krivosheev's 8.668 million was not a demographic loss. The military demographic loss was in fact 13-14 million.

That the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million does not mean that the military demographic loss was13,5 million ;besides there is no such thing as a military demographic loss:there are military losses and demographic losses and they are counted differently.
And, people who PROBABLY died as POWs are not military losses ,only people of whom it is proven that they died as POWs are military losses .Deserters can be considered as military losses, but as it is almost impossible to prove that a MIA/POW was a deserter,......

[Art]

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.

Well, that's the term used in the book - 8.7 mln demographic losses of the Soviet armed forces.

[thorwald77]

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.

A demographic loss means that if 9.9 million were killed or missing and 1.2 million would hypothetically die of natural causes in peacetime, the demographic loss would be 8.7 million. Maksudov and Ellman explained this concept in their article on Soviet war losses.

Krivosheev listed actual number of dead in missing in his study for each Front and Fleet and the number of returned POWs.

Krivosheev's casualties are an actual enumeration not a demographic estimate

[thorwald77]

That the gap between men and women increased by 13.5 million does not mean that the military demographic loss was 13,5 million

Krivosheev wants us to believe that the military dead and missing were 8.7 million and the civilian toll 18 million. A ratio of 2 civilian war dead to 1 military. This is absurd, but you can believe it if you so choose.

[Art]

Art Krivosheev never claimed the Soviet figures were a demographic loss.

Again, "demographic losses" is simply a quotation from the text. According to the classical definition by Urlanis "From a demographic point of view losses of military must include all cases of death regardless of their causes (wounds, sickness etc)":
https://scepsis.net/library/id_2000.html
Krivosheev simply follows this definition. Definitely there is a difference between losses defined this way and hyper-mortality calculated by ADK. In four years at normal peace-time level of mortality of 10-12 million men in the armed forces several hundred thousand would die. The difference is not that large though.