Barbarossa, Delay: Balkans or Rain

[benwi]

No : PzGr 2 was not stronger in September than in October .Besides, the role of PzGr 2 in Taifun was subordinated to the role of the ID , and, as usual, you are neglecting intentionally the role of the Red Army .
Due to logistic problems, Taifun in September was excluded : it would fail, totally .

You must be kidding.PzGr 2 would obviously be in a better state before an operation that costs losses and wear and tear than after.A PzGr is not subordinate to the infantry.It is the reverse.
It always makes me laugh that Taifun would work better for logistical reasons in a month where weather would create huge logistical problems.
The red army will not do better a month earlier.

[Art]

Out of general interest, that was the weather in September 1941 on the Smolensk-Moscow axis. Records from the situation reports of the Soviet 30 Army. It should be reminded that 30 A was on the schwerpunkt of AOK 9/PzGr 3 attack in Typhoon starting from 2 October:

17.00 1.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 2.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 2.9
Heavy rain in the army’s area, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 3.9
Cloudy, occasional rains, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 3.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 4.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 5.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 6.9
Cloudy, occasional rainfalls. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 6.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 7.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 7.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 8.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 8.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 9.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 10.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 10.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 11.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 11.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 12.9
Cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 12.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 13.9
Cloudy, raining. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 13.9
Partly cloudy, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 14.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 14.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 15.9
Cloudy, heavy rain in the army’s area, roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 15.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable after the rain.
5.00 16.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable after previous rains
17.00 16.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles have to stop en route due to poor roads.
5.00 17.9
Partly cloudy. Rains in the army’s area. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 17.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable after previous rains
5.00 18.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 18.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 19.9
Weather is rainy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles are delayed en route.
17.00 19.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport and require capital repair.
5.00 20.9
Weather is cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many automobiles are delayed en route.
17.00 20.9
Weather is cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 21.9
Weather is rainy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 21.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 22.9
Cloudy, occasional rains
17.00 22.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 23.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear. Roads are getting drier a little, but still ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 23.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles are delayed en route.
5.00 24.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 24.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 25.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport and require capital repair.
17.00 25.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 26.9
Alternating weather, rain at the evening. Roads are getting drier, but still ill-passable in some places
17.00 26.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 27.9
Good weather during the day.
17.00 27.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear, no rain. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
5.00 28.9
Weather has improved, no rain. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
17.00 28.9
Cloudy, no rain.
5.00 29.9
Low clouds. Roads are getting dry, but are ill-passable for motor transport in some places
17.00 29.9
Cloudy, no rain during the day. Roads are getting dry, but are still ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
5.00 30.9
Cloudy, no rain. Roads are dry.
17.00 30.9
Cloudy, no precipitation. Condition of roads is improving.
5.00 1.10
Cloudy, no precipitation. Roads are passable for all types of transport except separate sections.
17.00 1.10
Cloudy, roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places and require capital repair.
5.00 2.10
Cloudy, roads are ill passable in some places and require capital repair

The month as a whole was rainy with generally problematic situation on roads. It seems that operation Typhoon started in a favorable window of time when after a period of dry weather roads were in relatively good condition. For a weather and road conditions in October see the article by Radley and Sharp already discussed here. As authors argue in the northern part of the HG Mitte area these conditions were not as bad as commonly believed. So instead of "bottomless mud" in October after a dry September we have alternating periods of good and unfavorable weather.

[benwi]

Out of general interest, that was the weather in September 1941 on the Smolensk-Moscow axis. Records from the situation reports of the Soviet 30 Army. It should be reminded that 30 A was on the schwerpunkt of AOK 9/PzGr 3 attack in Typhoon starting from 2 October:

17.00 1.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 2.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 2.9
Heavy rain in the army’s area, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 3.9
Cloudy, occasional rains, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 3.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 4.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 5.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 6.9
Cloudy, occasional rainfalls. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 6.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 7.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 7.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 8.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 8.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 9.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 10.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 10.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 11.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
17.00 11.9
Clear. Roads are passable for motor transport.
5.00 12.9
Cloudy. Roads are passable for motor transport
17.00 12.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 13.9
Cloudy, raining. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 13.9
Partly cloudy, roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 14.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 14.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 15.9
Cloudy, heavy rain in the army’s area, roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 15.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable after the rain.
5.00 16.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable after previous rains
17.00 16.9
Partly cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles have to stop en route due to poor roads.
5.00 17.9
Partly cloudy. Rains in the army’s area. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 17.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable after previous rains
5.00 18.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 18.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 19.9
Weather is rainy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles are delayed en route.
17.00 19.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport and require capital repair.
5.00 20.9
Weather is cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many automobiles are delayed en route.
17.00 20.9
Weather is cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 21.9
Weather is rainy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 21.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 22.9
Cloudy, occasional rains
17.00 22.9
Cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 23.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear. Roads are getting drier a little, but still ill-passable for motor transport.
17.00 23.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport, many vehicles are delayed en route.
5.00 24.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
17.00 24.9
Clear. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport
5.00 25.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport and require capital repair.
17.00 25.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 26.9
Alternating weather, rain at the evening. Roads are getting drier, but still ill-passable in some places
17.00 26.9
Partly cloudy. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
5.00 27.9
Good weather during the day.
17.00 27.9
Cloudy, occasionally clear, no rain. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
5.00 28.9
Weather has improved, no rain. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
17.00 28.9
Cloudy, no rain.
5.00 29.9
Low clouds. Roads are getting dry, but are ill-passable for motor transport in some places
17.00 29.9
Cloudy, no rain during the day. Roads are getting dry, but are still ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
5.00 30.9
Cloudy, no rain. Roads are dry.
17.00 30.9
Cloudy, no precipitation. Condition of roads is improving.
5.00 1.10
Cloudy, no precipitation. Roads are passable for all types of transport except separate sections.
17.00 1.10
Cloudy, roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places and require capital repair.
5.00 2.10
Cloudy, roads are ill passable in some places and require capital repair

The month as a whole was rainy with generally problematic situation on roads. It seems that operation Typhoon started in a favorable window of time when after a period of dry weather roads were in relatively good condition. For a weather and road conditions in October see the article by Radley and Sharp already discussed here. As authors argue in the northern part of the HG Mitte area these conditions were not as bad as commonly believed. So instead of "bottomless mud" in October after a dry September we have alternating periods of good and unfavorable weather.

When you plan to start a month earlier you can always expect to have more periods of good weather than starting în october .

[Art]

As said above weather in September was not quite good. Fro comparison records of the artillery staff of the 29 Army - right (northern) neighbor of the 30 Army

15.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
16.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
17.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
18.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
19.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
20.09
Forest and field roads are ill-passable
21.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
22.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport. No road repair is undertaken
23.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
24.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
25.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
26.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
27.09
Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
28.09
Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
29.09
Roads are satisfactory passable
30.09
Forest and field roads are satisfactory passable for motor transport
1.10
Roads are satisfactory passable for all types of transport.
2.10
Roads are passable for all types of transport.

Records of the staff of West Front's artillery:

20.9
Alternating weather with occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
21.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for all types of transport.
22.9
Alternating weather with occasional short rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for all types of transport.
23.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
24.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
25.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
26.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
27.9
Alternating weather. Light snow in some places. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in places.
28.9
Cloudy, occasional short rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
29.9
Cloudy, occasional short rains in places. Field and forest roads are ill-passable in some places.
30.9
Cloudy, without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable in some places.
1.10
Alternating weather without precipitation. Roads are in satisfactory condition.

So, again, it seems that Typhoon started in perfect moment of dry weather. Not only local and unpaved roads became sufficiently dry after September rains, but the weather was also good enough to allow full-scale operations of air force. And, again, the period of wet and poor weather that came after that wasn't something completely exceptional and unseen before.

[benwi]

As said above weather in September was not quite good. Fro comparison records of the artillery staff of the 29 Army - right (northern) neighbor of the 30 Army

15.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
16.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
17.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
18.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
19.09
Roads are in unsatisfactory condition
20.09
Forest and field roads are ill-passable
21.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
22.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport. No road repair is undertaken
23.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
24.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
25.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
26.09
Roads are unsatisfactory passable for all kinds of transport
27.09
Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
28.09
Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
29.09
Roads are satisfactory passable
30.09
Forest and field roads are satisfactory passable for motor transport
1.10
Roads are satisfactory passable for all types of transport.
2.10
Roads are passable for all types of transport.

Records of the staff of West Front's artillery:

20.9
Alternating weather with occasional rains. Roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
21.9
Cloudy, occasional rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for all types of transport.
22.9
Alternating weather with occasional short rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for all types of transport.
23.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
24.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport.
25.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
26.9
Alternating weather without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
27.9
Alternating weather. Light snow in some places. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in places.
28.9
Cloudy, occasional short rains. Field and forest roads are ill-passable for motor transport in some places.
29.9
Cloudy, occasional short rains in places. Field and forest roads are ill-passable in some places.
30.9
Cloudy, without precipitation. Field and forest roads are ill-passable in some places.
1.10
Alternating weather without precipitation. Roads are in satisfactory condition.

So, again, it seems that Typhoon started in perfect moment of dry weather. Not only local and unpaved roads became sufficiently dry after September rains, but the weather was also good enough to allow full-scale operations of air force. And, again, the period of wet and poor weather that came after that wasn't something completely exceptional and unseen before.

If you you start end august you can expect more periods of benign weather than when you start later.

[Yuri]

If you you start end august you can expect more periods of benign weather than when you start later.

Or fewer periods of benign weather.
Such as weather on 29-30 August 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... q1N3ssZ-Us

By the way minus 58 to Farrenheit is still warm, that's when a minus 85, it's a little cold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KInXvWoq9U

[Art]

If you you start end august you can expect more periods of benign weather than when you start later.

I don't think that starting earlier than the last days of August was possible. Most probably not even earlier than early September. WFSt OKW in their appraisal of situation from 10 August suggested that a large offesnive toward Moscow could be started in late August. Warlimont on 18.8 proposed early September, on the same day OKH (Halder) in seconded that. Operations in September would face the problems of rains and soaked roads Guderian described in his memoirs.

[benwi]

If you you start end august you can expect more periods of benign weather than when you start later.

I don't think that starting earlier than the last days of August was possible. Most probably not even earlier than early September. WFSt OKW in their appraisal of situation from 10 August suggested that a large offesnive toward Moscow could be started in late August. Warlimont on 18.8 proposed early September, on the same day OKH (Halder) in seconded that. Operations in September would face the problems of rains and soaked roads Guderian described in his memoirs.

Over two months you will have more good weather.Anyway, the decision was made in august and you can expect to be better off when starting early.Weather was the reason why the OKH wanted to start end august.

[benwi]

If you you start end august you can expect more periods of benign weather than when you start later.

Or fewer periods of benign weather.
Such as weather on 29-30 August 2017.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... q1N3ssZ-Us

By the way minus 58 to Farrenheit is still warm, that's when a minus 85, it's a little cold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KInXvWoq9U

You can expect more good weather over two months.And you base your decision on average weather.

[Yuri]

1. If you wish to have weather as your ally, you must make an agreement with the Lord God.
2. If the knowledge about the German Wehrmacht = 1, but the knowledge about the Red Army = 0, That means the following:
The knowledge about the Great Patriotic war, which the Soviet people led in 1941-19545, equal to zero,
because according to the rules of logic 1 x 0 = 0.

[Kelvin]

I really don't understand if Balkan delay and Rain affect the outcome of Soviet-German war , or at least a draw at the end of 1941. One more month only probably enabled German to destroyed two or three more Russian Armies ? German army were exhausted without getting a large quantity of supplies or manpower. Soviet still can frantically raise another ten Armies in Nov 1941. If German cleared up the remant of Western, Briansk and Reserve Fronts in Oct, she still needed to face ten fresh Armies from the East. The result is the same.

In Poland, German had an edge in manpower and military hardware. German had 1,513,000 men committed in invasion of Poland plus 50,000 Slovakian troop. Polish Army had 1 million men. in Every battle, German can depoly two or three time of force in annhilating Polish troop. In Radom, 8 German divisions against 3 Polish division, in Andrzejewo, 4 German against 1 Polish divisoin, in Kutno, 18 German divisions against 8 Polish divisions plus 3 Brigades. And German had air superiority , much larger tank force and stronger motorized troop.

In France, German superiority was not so obvious, German even had less manpower in front. But French had almost mobilize all troops and its industrial area and capital is closed to border which enabled German to win the war in initial period of war.

In Russia, they just wanted to repeat battle of France, so one blow will led to collapse of Russia. Given the size of USSR, manpower, resources, and above all, political stability. German leadership all assumption are based upon history record : 1917 Revolution brought the collapse of Russia after one by one military disaster. In house discontent also led to revolution. Finnish war of 1939-40 confirmed the weakness of Russian military after purge. But they igoned the same time Soviet victories in Nomonhan in Aug 1939. Guderian figure on large Soviet tank fleet, was ignored too. German only committed 3,050,000 men for war in Russia plus 550.000 allied troop for such huge territories. For France and Lower Countries, German had 2,760,000 men.
Complacency led to all these mistake.

They must know the vast territories of Russia, ableit the sharp increase of motorized troop in comparsion with 1940 campaign, it was not enough for that job. If not revolution happened in Russia, they will go on the war forever. the power of Luftwaffe was less in Russia than in France in 1940. Even German friendly policy toward Soviet minoities, I suspect if it work for collapse of Russia. Many authors always focused on this point is main factor for defeat of Russia.

[Art]

Well, Halder's line of reasoning was approximately as follows
1. Campaign must focus not on territorial gains but on defeat of the main Ref Army's forces
2. Since these main forces were concentrated in the central sector on the way to Moscow, the German offesnive there must be the top priority
3. Once these main forces are defeated, the Soviet Army won't be able to reconstruct a coherent front and a further conquest of territory won't be much a problem.
4. The loss of Moscow as an economical and political center would be a huge blow to the SU, also the loss of the transport center would cut the soviet territory in two separate connected parts with little communication between them.

It's argued that a delay in the offensive in the central sector ruined this plan. In a retrospective view Halder was wrong in his basic premises. Namely: Soviet forces in Ukraine were approximately as strong as those in front of Moscow, albeit less concentrated. After defeat at Vyazma-Bryansk the SU was able to mobilize new forces and achieve a stalemate. Also note a certain contradiction between 1) and 4).
In general, I believe, Halder was too much a hostage of traditional tenets of Napoleonic-style "decisive battle". On the Eastern Front of 1941 such a decisive battle was hardly possible.

[Art]

What information I could gather about weather and road conditions in October 1941 is in good qualitative accord with Radey and Sharp. Namely it supports their thesis about large regional variations. In the south in the black-soil region around Bryansk, Orel and Tula the mud period came earlier, lasted longer and was the most atrocious. In its height roads were described as almost unusable even for animal transport. In the north - area around Kalinin - roads were good until about 20 October. After that rains and melting snow made certain problems, but not nearly as dramatic as in the south and not much different from earlier rainy periods. Worth to remind that the German command used this window of opportunity for an advance to Kalinin and than from Kalinin to Torzhok that is in a direction completely opposite from Moscow. Nobody was responsible for this mistake but them.

[Max Payload]

Well, Halder's line of reasoning was approximately as follows
1. Campaign must focus not on territorial gains but on defeat of the main Ref Army's forces
2. Since these main forces were concentrated in the central sector on the way to Moscow, the German offesnive there must be the top priority
...
4. The loss of Moscow as an economical and political center would be a huge blow to the SU, also the loss of the transport center would cut the soviet territory in two ill-connected parts ...
... note a certain contradiction between 1) and 4).

Not really. If anything, they were complementary because after the failure of the frontier battles to achieve the collapse of the RA/SU, Halder grew amenable to the view that going after key economic targets might prove worthwhile. Since areas such as the Donbas and the Moscow conurbation were likely to be heavily defended, they would present an opportunity to simultaneously inflict still more damage on the RA and further reduce the SU’s economic ability to sustain its war effort. Targeting Moscow would not be going after territory for the sake of acreage, it would be, as you identified, a major economic and political target, a transport hub the loss of which would cut Soviet territory in the region into two disparate parts, and a locality where the RA would inevitably be concentrated, potentially ripe for a further drubbing.

[Kelvin]

Well, Halder's line of reasoning was approximately as follows
1. Campaign must focus not on territorial gains but on defeat of the main Ref Army's forces
2. Since these main forces were concentrated in the central sector on the way to Moscow, the German offesnive there must be the top priority
...
4. The loss of Moscow as an economical and political center would be a huge blow to the SU, also the loss of the transport center would cut the soviet territory in two ill-connected parts ...
... note a certain contradiction between 1) and 4).

Not really. If anything, they were complementary because after the failure of the frontier battles to achieve the collapse of the RA/SU, Halder grew amenable to the view that going after key economic targets might prove worthwhile. Since areas such as the Donbas and the Moscow conurbation were likely to be heavily defended, they would present an opportunity to simultaneously inflict still more damage on the RA and further reduce the SU’s economic ability to sustain its war effort. Targeting Moscow would not be going after territory for the sake of acreage, it would be, as you identified, a major economic and political target, a transport hub the loss of which would cut Soviet territory in the region into two disparate parts, and a locality where the RA would inevitably be concentrated, potentially ripe for a further drubbing.

Halder 's stragetic view is limited. He always argured that if Hitler listened to him, the outcome of war would be better. Back to 1940 France, Halder dismissed Manstein 's concept of Ardennes breakthrough and still stick to old Schlieffen Plan.If Hitler listened to him in 1940, the war in the West would be a draw or stalemate.

He also admitted in 1941 he underestimated Soviet military manpower potential, from 200 divisions to 360 divisions. As Art mentioned, decisive battle hardly possbile in 1941. Hinderland of Poland and France were too small which made them incapable of mobilitzing a new army in rear. Once 39 Polish divisions and 94 French divisions, there were no more reserves for war against German, ableit French still had a dozed Colonial divisions overseas. All German leaderships deliberately overlooked or even igonred Soviet potential.I have mentioned Japanese military intelligence had predicted German cannot win the war in 1941, albeit they would win the whole war after all, but how many year who know ?