What if Hitler dies in 1918?

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praetorianavis
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What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 21 Aug 2018 20:07

A somewhat scarier scenario than that described under the thread "What if Hitler dies in 1938?":

On October 14, 1918 the corporal Adolf Hitler is killed by a British gas shell in the Ypres salient in Belgium.

During the 1930s the Weimar Republic muddles through until civil war breaks out in 1934 between right-wing groups and the Communists. With help from Soviet Russia, by 1936 the well-organized German Communist Party emerges victorious and establishes a dictatorship under the leadership of Ernst Thälmann. He is seconded by Soviet advisors. In Spain, the insurgency of Francisco Franco is successfully repressed by the Republican government aided by international brigades from the leftist corners of Europe, mainly from Germany, France and the Soviet Union. By 1937 the Spanish Communists gain the upper hand in the government and declare a dictatorship.

The victory of the Left in France’s neighbors is applauded by the French Popular Front government and by a large part of the world’s progressive intelligentsia.

England tries to stem the tide by a rapprochement with Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the the right-wing governments of Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Italy. In Washington, Roosevelt tries to change the isolationist mood of the USA by encouraging the press to report about the atrocities committed by the Reds and by warning the people about the Communist menace at fireside chats.

Stalin decides that the historic moment has arrived for the victorious march of Communism in Europe. The opportunity is so monumental, that he suppresses his paranoia and entrusts the leadership of the Red Army to the brilliant strategist and military leader Mikhail Tukhachevsky, with the assignment to liberate the rest of Europe from the capitalist yoke. Aided by talented commanders, in 1938 Tukhachevsky leads a bold campaign against Poland, employing his strategy of deep operations with combined formations of mechanized infantry, tanks, airplanes and parachutists. The victorious Soviet forces are greeted by friendly German Red Army troops at the borders of Germany and Poland.

In Paris, a Communist insurgency topples the Popular Front government. A brief, sporadic civil war ends with the victory of the Communists, supported by international brigades from Spain, Germany and the Soviet Union.

In 1939 a second Soviet campaign is led through Romania to occupy the Balkan countries and it quickly reaches the Mediterranean with the help of Yugoslav and Greek Communist insurgents. A British expeditionary force sent to the Balkans under the leadership of Lord Gort hastily leaves, leaving behind a large amount of military equipment. Coordinated and assisted by Moscow, the German Red Army overruns Austria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary, and, together with French Red Army elements, sweeps the Fascist Italian army. The Italian Communists establish a government in Rome.

Attacked from the Spanish mainland, the heroic defenders of Gibraltar are quickly subdued, and the entry to the Mediterranean is more or less bottled up. The Soviets can thrust through Northern Iran into Iraq, Syria and Egypt. Stalin does not mind some losses by occupying Malta and Crete by airborne troops, of which he has plenty.

By the time the USA launches a large armament program, and gets ready to come to the aid of England, the Union of Soviet Republics of Europe and Asia is formed under close control of Moscow. A huge fleet and air force building program is set in motion to prepare a landing in England.

The successful landing operation takes place in 1942, with the participation of thousands of aircraft, a dozen of parachutist divisions, and a huge fleet of high-speed E-boats and self-propelled landing crafts transporting invasion armies and equipment. The Channel waters are forbidden to the British Navy by enormous mine fields, real and decoy.

Meanwhile, the Reds infest the waters of the Atlantic with submarines. In the Channel there is no need to have total air superiority, just throw in enough planes to force enemy aircraft to fight for their lives instead of hunting down thousands of relatively small high-speed vessels crossing the Channel. The same goes for the Allied navy: they cannot really efficiently chase speedboats if they have to cross mine fields and constantly maneuver to avoid dive bombers and submarines.

It would be a tremendously costly operation - but Stalin was not the kind of fellow who shied away from sustaining great losses of manpower and equipment to attain a strategic goal.

The British fleet, supported by US vessels, after the loss of some large battleships, was soon forced to abandon operations in the narrow Channel waters. The huge Red Army invasion force sweeps aside all resistance. The UK falls within 4 weeks and the British Royals and government escape to Canada. The NKVD sets up its headquarters in the Tower of London. A long pacification effort takes place, with hundreds of thousands disappearing in torture chambers, prisons and the labor camps of Scotland and Siberia. Ireland is made a Soviet ally by returning Northern Ireland to the Irish Republic.

Encouraged by the defeat of the British-American fleet in the Battle of Britain, Imperial Japan attacks British and American possessions in the Pacific and in South-East Asia.

At the height of his conquests, Stalin gets rid of Tukhachevsky, accusing him of a „bonapartist conspiracy“ against the dictatorship of the proletariat.
Worried that the USA would build an atomic bomb before Europe, in 1939 a left-leaning physicist, Leo Szilard, convinces Einstein (both live and work in Germany) to write a letter to Stalin, explaining the possibility and the urgency of such a program. Hundreds of German physicists are immediately dispatched to a secret base to join a team of international and Soviet physicists, such as Igor Kurchatov and Andrei Sakharov, to develop a nuclear device. As a result of an immense effort directed by NKVD-boss Lavrenty Beria, in 1944 the Soviet Union detonates its first nuclear bomb in the Siberian Semipalatinsk. By the same time, German rocket scientists develop a first intercontinental missile capable of reaching the USA. The USA is way behind in nuclear research, because most German scientists remained in Europe.

In 1945 Stalin sends a couple of nukes, by missile or submarines, and lets them detonate in the ocean in front of NY and Boston to impress Washington - talk about making waves - and to force a deal to gain concessions in the Caribic (Cuba), South America (Chile and Argentina come to mind), and perhaps Canada (Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Quebec). He might ban the bulk of the allied Navy from the Atlantic, or even "purchase" a portion of it at conditions that the US cannot refuse. In the Pacific, he might try to renegotiate the reacquisition of Alaska at a bargain.

Its anyone's guess, how this would work out, but in any case, the US would probably feverishly prepare for a Soviet invasion, and make a huge effort to develop the Bomb, before the Reds build up a huge bridgehead in the Eastern provinces of Canada. The Man in the High Castle scenario comes to mind, with no happy ending for the USA.

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 21 Aug 2018 23:26

" The Man in the High Castle scenario comes to mind": In an even darker scenario the public opinion in the US turns bigotry antisemitic, accusing Jewish Soviet officials, Red Army commissars and NKVD high officers of leading the brutal sovietization of Europe and of the world, with millions in Gulags all over Europe.

By today's standards, America (like most of Europe) in the first half of the 20th century was a rather racist nation, with Jews - let alone other minorities - severely restricted to attend WASP Ivy Leage universities. In preparation of the Nuremberg Laws, Nazi German legal officials closely studied American laws discriminating blacks in many US states. An interesting read: James Q Whitman: Hitler's American Model: The United States and the Making of Nazi Race Law, 2017. It is essentially a description of how American race law provided a blueprint for Nazi Germany. Stalin and the Soviet Union considered antisemitism a mortal sin, at least until the end of WW2. Threatened by a Soviet invasion and nuclear bombs exploding in front of New York and Boston, a right-wing, anticommunist, antisemitic white supremacist president could have been elected as president of the USA, compared to whom Charles Lindbergh was a pro-multiculturalist kumbaya liberal.

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by South » 22 Aug 2018 08:35

Good morning Praetorianavis,

Some head notes:

- Presumptions must be realistic.
- Is it the personalities or the underlying forces like nationalism, imperialism governing the events ?
- An undefined term: "the world's progressive intelligentsia".

A sidebar for both here and other related thread:

Dozens of scientists and engineers were studying atomic ordnance development. Less than a third of a dozen nation-states could accumulate the funds to finance the venture.

It is not realistic to say FDR would try to change the US isolationist mood in the 1930s. The US was still in Depression. In December 1937 the Japanese bombed and strafed the USS Panay in Chinese waters. FDR suppressed the event (with WIA) because the US was not ready for a warfare economy.

How does brilliant strategist Tukhachevsky and his talented commanders run the logistics program - involves procurement - for the trucks, airp lanes, tanks ? Lenin repudiated Soviet-inherited debt and the international response continued to be predictable. Only FDR's programs like Lend-Lease gave the ailing Soviet Union some revived vital signs.

True, the UK could have lost it's Med Lines of Communication. This was "serious" - but not fatal. Simontown and Durban would be reactivated for the long-haul route India to Bank of England.

The USSR - OF - "Europe and Asia" ?! Wouldn't Japan already possess Vladivostok, Magadan and westward to/toward Irkutsk ? There goes Mongolia !
Return to realism.

What are the financial arrangements for "A huge fleet and air force building program" ?

The referenced "tremendously costly operation" involved costs. Where did the money come from ?

How does Japan attack British and American possessions in the Pacific and SEA based on above scenario ? IF Europe is lost, US resources are free to help out in the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies.

Only German scientists knew how to develop intercontinental missiles and atomic ordnance ? Joan Baez's dad was a scientist-inventer and he was ethnic Mexican !

The term "racist nation" is a vague as they come.

In the first half of the 20th century, those not allowed to enroll in the WASP Ivy League universities had other options. CCNY ("The poor man's Harvard") was an example. Senior/Tavarish Trotsky spent 3 months there. MIT in Massachusetts was also a substitute.

Race laws of the US states for the Nazi model ?! ROFL !!! The Germans studied the Armenian genocide by the Ottomans, looked at the European response to Luther, to Napoleon,.......and the other local stuff.

Soviet General Rodenko can elaborate on this. (UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim, during WWII, was either at the law library as a student or next to the dynamo at the Yugo interrogation center. He physically could be at both places at the same time.) Disregard the US states' race laws.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: What if Hitelr dies in 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 22 Aug 2018 10:26

Thank you for having read my lengthy post and for your detailed reply, South.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

- Presumptions must be realistic.
I think my presumptions are reasonably realistic. You may of course disagree. This is the purpose of such debates.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

- Is it the personalities or the underlying forces like nationalism, imperialism governing the events ?
In some cases single personalities can make a helluva lot of difference.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

- An undefined term: "the world's progressive intelligentsia".
It is a commonly used term, or more exactly self definition, meaning something like leftist-liberal elite.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

Less than a third of a dozen nation-states could accumulate the funds to finance the venture.
The Soviet Union was one of them.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

The US was still in Depression... was not ready for a warfare economy.
I thought in RL it was the large-scale armament program that ended the depression.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35


Only FDR's programs like Lend-Lease gave the ailing Soviet Union some revived vital signs.

I agree that Lend-Lease possibly saved Stalin's regime at the most crucial time, but the Soviet Union was in the middle of a huge armament effort since the 1930s. The reason that it took the Lend Lease to save him was that he lost a ridiculously gigantesque amount of equipment in the first few weeks-months of the German invasion.


South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
True, the UK could have lost it's Med Lines of Communication. This was "serious" - but not fatal. Simontown and Durban would be reactivated for the long-haul route India to Bank of England.
The loss of the Med meant: no way to attack Europe's soft underbelly from there.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
The USSR - OF - "Europe and Asia" ?! Wouldn't Japan already possess Vladivostok, Magadan and westward to/toward Irkutsk ? There goes Mongolia !
Return to realism.
I am solidly on realist ground. Think about Khalkhin Gol in RL.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35

What are the financial arrangements for "A huge fleet and air force building program" ?
The same as in RL, withe the difference that the resources of Germany and of Russia would be combined.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
The referenced "tremendously costly operation" involved costs. Where did the money come from ?

Same as above. Plus costs in lives. Stalin was not particularly impressed with it.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
How does Japan attack British and American possessions in the Pacific and SEA based on above scenario ? IF Europe is lost, US resources are free to help out in the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies.
Well, these resources are not exactly free. The US has all its hands full trying to prepare for a Soviet invasion. They could focus less on an entanglement in a murderous war with Japan in the backyard jungles of SEA, while Uncle Joe is getting ready to knock knock on the front door.

They would busily digging antitank trenches and building an Atlantic and Pacific wall on the beaches, that sort of stuff.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
Only German scientists knew how to develop intercontinental missiles and atomic ordnance ? Joan Baez's dad was a scientist-inventer and he was ethnic Mexican !
Without Szilard and his fellows, and von Braun and his team the US would have real big problems with responding to the threat.

South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
The term "racist nation" is a vague as they come.


Vague as it is, still most people have an idea of what that means. Like strong segregation and exclusion from a lot of things.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
In the first half of the 20th century, those not allowed to enroll in the WASP Ivy League universities had other options. CCNY ("The poor man's Harvard") was an example. Senior/Tavarish Trotsky spent 3 months there. MIT in Massachusetts was also a substitute.


I just wanted to indicate the general mood towards Jews in the WASP elites. That could have radically worsened under the scenario described in the OP.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
Race laws of the US states for the Nazi model ?! ROFL !!! The Germans studied the Armenian genocide by the Ottomans, looked at the European response to Luther, to Napoleon,.......and the other local stuff.


Please read the book I have mentioned in the OP. By the way, Hitler was very fond of the way American Indians were handled.
South wrote:
22 Aug 2018 08:35
Soviet General Rodenko can elaborate on this. (UN Secretary General Kurt Waldheim, during WWII, was either at the law library as a student or next to the dynamo at the Yugo interrogation center. He physically could be at both places at the same time.) Disregard the US states' race laws.


Rodenko indeed disregarded US state laws. Similarly, when in connection with Article 6a of the Nuremberg Charters the defense of General Jodl mentioned the tremendous offensive deployment of the Red Army on the German-Soviet border in 1940-41, the court's response was: "The purpose of this Court is not to judge the acts of the Allied Powers, but those of Germany."

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA
[/quote]

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by South » 22 Aug 2018 19:19

Good afternoon Praetorianavis,

Appreciate counter responses.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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RE: What If Hitler Dies In 1918?

Post by Robert Rojas » 22 Aug 2018 22:39

Greetings to both citizen Praetorianavis and the community as a whole. Howdy Praetorianavis (or the bodyguard of advice, opinion and deliberations if you so prefer)! Well sir, in respect to your introductory posting of Tuesday - August 21, 2018 - 11:07am, old yours truly was wondering if this epic treatise of yours was a clear repudiation of Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili's stated policy of SOCIALISM IN ONE COUNTRY and a clear vindication of Lev Davidovich Bronstein's theory of PERMANENT REVOLUTION? However, after all is said and done, I rather imagine that even a fanciful Marxist-Leninist global workers paradise will disintegrate into NATIONALISTIC FACTIONALISM. Historically, we only need to look at the YUGOSLAV-SOVIET rift, the SINO-SOVIET rift, the SINO-VIETNAMESE rift, the VIETNAMESE-CAMBODIAN rift and, of course, the grand daddy of them all, the implosion of the Warsaw Pact military alliance and the subsequent dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Incidentally, you might want to carefully reconsider the fanciful notion of an overt invasion of the continental United States of America by the minions of the Third International. Not even taking into consideration the armed forces of this nation, the common citizenry of this Republic are both numerous and HEAVILY ARMED. The Scarlet Legions of Bolshevism and their Quisling collaborationists would face a nightmarish guerilla war without end! This would be especially true in the southern tier of the United States of America and I'm not just whistling Dixie! It's just some sobering food for thought. Hush puppies and grits anyone? Well, that's my initial two Yankee cents worth on this de facto rehash of the celluloid epic from year 1984 known as RED DAWN - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day not matter where you might find yourself on the Seven Seas.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob :idea: :roll: :|
"It is well that war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it" - Robert E. Lee

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Re: RE: What If Hitler Dies In 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 23 Aug 2018 03:49

Thanks Uncle Bob for your interesting considerations.
Robert Rojas wrote:
22 Aug 2018 22:39

old yours truly was wondering if this epic treatise of yours was a clear repudiation of Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili's stated policy of SOCIALISM IN ONE COUNTRY and a clear vindication of Lev Davidovich Bronstein's theory of PERMANENT REVOLUTION?
As a well read person in the history of Marxism-Leninism-Stalinism, you know that the concept of socialism in one country was born out of dire necessity: when Stalin had to bitterly acknowledge that the expectations that the German working class will take the leadership of world revolution failed to materialize. With the Soviet working class finally uniting with their older brothers, the German workers, the main obstacles are cleared for them to unite with the proletarians of all countries of the world.

Even in RL, on May 5, 1941 Stalin made a speech before military officers announcing that it was time to think in terms of an offensive war.
Robert Rojas wrote:
22 Aug 2018 22:39
However, after all is said and done, I rather imagine that even a fanciful Marxist-Leninist global workers paradise will disintegrate into NATIONALISTIC FACTIONALISM.
It sure will, but not during a victorious march. Some time (10-20 years) later.
Robert Rojas wrote:
22 Aug 2018 22:39
Incidentally, you might want to carefully reconsider the fanciful notion of an overt invasion of the continental United States of America by the minions of the Third International. Not even taking into consideration the armed forces of this nation, the common citizenry of this Republic are both numerous and HEAVILY ARMED.
The Soviets were ruthless in crushing guerilla movements. In case they decided to invade, they would probably use salami tactics: in a first phase occupy the Yankee states of the East Coast to the Appalachian mountains, joining them to their possessions in New Brunswick. I admit it would be a long and ugly process. Regular armed forces would be kept at bay by the threat of nuclear strikes. The lumpenploretariat of the big cities would be encouraged to join their liberators and serve in auxiliary police and antiterrorist squads. Resistants would be smoked out and shot and suspicious elements sent to asbestos and iron ore mines in the Gulag camps established in Quebec and Labrador.

Robert Rojas wrote:
22 Aug 2018 22:39
The Scarlet Legions of Bolshevism and their Quisling collaborationists would face a nightmarish guerilla war without end! This would be especially true in the southern tier of the United States of America
In RL Comrades Beria, Abakumov and Serov were accomplished experts in anti guerilla tactics and in empowering local minorities with a grievance to run the political police (under the careful supervision of Soviet advisors). They sure would use their remarkable talents in pacifying the East Coast of the USA under this scenario, too.

An offer to secede under very lucrative conditions and to maintain independence would be made to the Dixie states.

An alliance with Mexico would be concluded with a promise to regain the lost territories of Nueva México and Alta California.

Wishing you an excellent evening,

Salud! and cheers with

Best regards

Pretorianavis

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by South » 23 Aug 2018 04:51

Good morning Pretorianavis,

The Dixie states are now more Lincolnesque than the Frankfurt School states north of Washington, D.C.

The bench mark for this is the Taft-Hartley amendments and the military / civil service / excepted service presence. Add the introduction of air conditioning and the place is nicer than Mott Street, Manhattan, New York City (less the real restaurant trade).

Mexico is already a defacto US territory. See the 5 Mexican accounts at Federal Reserve Bank, New York required for Mexico to pay its debts to US for bond bailouts.

Tavarish Beria does not know guerrilla warfare when discussing the contemporary versions now available here. A conference on this will be held at Mandalay Bay Hotel. The lunch picnic is at West Garfield Park.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 23 Aug 2018 14:37

South wrote:
23 Aug 2018 04:51
Good morning Pretorianavis,

The Dixie states are now more Lincolnesque than the Frankfurt School states north of Washington, D.C.

The bench mark for this is the Taft-Hartley amendments and the military / civil service / excepted service presence. Add the introduction of air conditioning and the place is nicer than Mott Street, Manhattan, New York City (less the real restaurant trade).

Mexico is already a defacto US territory. See the 5 Mexican accounts at Federal Reserve Bank, New York required for Mexico to pay its debts to US for bond bailouts.

Tavarish Beria does not know guerrilla warfare when discussing the contemporary versions now available here. A conference on this will be held at Mandalay Bay Hotel. The lunch picnic is at West Garfield Park.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA
Thank you Bob for your interesting assessment of the situation.

When is the conference and what is its title? Any info about it on the net?

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by South » 23 Aug 2018 18:51

Good afternoon Praetorianavis,

Had never been sure if you're transmitting from Mar Nostrum or Lake Tahoe.

Was just joking about the conference.

REAL conferences (not fund-raisers / publicity stunts / related / ) are by invitation only and not posted on the web less aspects for fund-raising / publicity / related.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by Plain Old Dave » 15 Oct 2018 22:28

Random thought. The US B-36 Peacemaker heavy bomber was initially contracted to provide strike capability to Europe from bases in the New World. The first Soviet heavy bomber was reverse engineered from the B-29. Submarine, same difficulty. Germany in chaos, where would an agrarian society like the USSR get intensive tech like submarines? Even in the 70s, Western analysts were stunned at how primitive the uber-tech MiG 25 Foxbat turned out to be.

Even with nukes as a Macguffin, the Bolsheviks have no delivery system.

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by James A Pratt III » 17 Nov 2018 05:34

I would say if Hitler had been KIA in WW I some other right winger would have become dictator of Germany. I don't think the Communists have much of a chance of coming to power

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by maltesefalcon » 17 Nov 2018 15:56

Getting into this one late in the game but here is my two cents worth.

The German Communist Party and its adherants were far less popular than would be required to effect a coup on their own for power. The Spartacists were crushed in the 1920s as was the Hamburg revolts some years later. In the final election before the Nazis took over they only got about 10% of the vote, so they would not be able to win by democratic means either.

The armed forces were deeply conservative and would not support a communist regime. In fact even Hitler had to neuter the SA to get support for his own party.

Aid from Soviet Russia would be minimal at best. The two countries had no common border at the time so direct military support could only come from an amphibious invasion. No way the Russians were set up for that in 1934. Monetary aid would also be minimal as USSR struggled to rebuild after its own civil war.

Not only that Stalin now considered the USSR's brief collaboration with Germany to jointly develop weapons, a hotbed of anti-Soviet thought. Anyone of influence exposed to this program was eventually purged, as a potential enemy of the state. (Along with much of the army heirarchy and anyone in the Communist party who could be a potential rival for power.)

Add to that Germany's military weakness in 1934. The rebuilding of the Wehrmacht was possible for two reasons. First the repudiation of the Versailles Treaty. Granted any strong willed leader may have pulled off that one. But repudiation of war debt and cash influx from (capitalist) foreign investors would dry up under Communist tutilege.

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Re: What if Hitler dies in 1918?

Post by praetorianavis » 15 Dec 2018 08:31

James A Pratt III wrote:
17 Nov 2018 05:34
I would say if Hitler had been KIA in WW I some other right winger would have become dictator of Germany. I don't think the Communists have much of a chance of coming to power
Hitler was not your average right winger: he made the difference. No other leaders were as charismatic - not even Roehm - and politically talented.

Without Hitler, it is a reasonable guess that the German Communists would have had a fair chance to come to power.

Nobody thought the Communists would prevail, in Russia either. With hindsight, it seems preordained, but it was anything but. War helped, but the economic crisis of 1929 would have helped the German Communists as well. They were a small, tightly organised, strictly disciplined party with a charismatic leader, Lenin. That made the difference.

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