Different German Oil Strategy

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 15 Jan 2019 15:53

Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .

Peter89
Member
Posts: 2369
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Europe

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Peter89 » 15 Jan 2019 16:35

ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:14
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cacke is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
I did not say that Western sources were arrogant and biased, but that winners were and are arrogant and biased : Galbraith came to Europe with the conviction that the American economic system was more efficient than the German one .
The arrival of the USSBS in a destroyed Europe was as the Ugly American 13 years later .
The ignorance of the USSBS about Germany was striking, it was also striking about Britain, France, etc , but its ignorance about Japan was much bigger: how many members of the USSBS had visited Germany and Japan, how many spoke/understood German/Japanese ?
And, about the Japanese oil stocks : the Japanese used tons, not barrels, the USSBS converted the tons in barrels ( always something hazardous ) and now we are discussing if the convert of barrels to tons again is correct, instead of searching if the USSBS used the correct Japanese ton figures, or if the Japanese figures were correct .During the period between the capitulation and the arrival of the Americans, the Japanese did not remain idle : they destroyed as many of the remaining documents ( a lot were already destroyed by US air attacks ),the result was that the USSBS was forced to use what the Japanese and the AAF had not destroyed . As we don't know what was lost, we can't be certain that what was remaining,was reliable .
USSBS was conducted to measure the effectiveness of the industrial bombing (a new type of warfare), not to map the German / Japanese economy in depth.

This distinction is important because you claim that they analyzed the German/Japanese economy wrongly, and every paperwork was in bad shape back then. Sure man, they finished writing the report in September 1945, how the paperwork supposed to look like? They mostly identified the key economic elements that led to the collapse. Eg. when the Allied military intelligence tried to estimate the Panther production, the empirical analysis was amazingly accurate. I recommend you this doc, it covers tire production, etc.
https://tinyurl.com/yam3aptu

It proves that they knew their job pretty well, so claiming that they were biased and arrogant requires more argument than "they were the victors".

If you are familiar with the circumstances of the team they assembled, then you know that they were not military personnel; they might have been the confidence of a victor, but not the complete ignorance. So to say, they began to assemble the team well before the end of the war. Ofc they knew they will win, but they also knew how to measure the utility of means.

Regarding the number of visitors during / after the war: oh god, by late 1944 the Allied knew perfectly what is going on in Germany, including economic chockepoints, forced labor and Holocaust alike. That's how they identified the targets of industrial bombardments to begin with!

http://www.461st.org/Missions/July1944.htm

If you scroll through the Hungarian targets, let me tell you this: they knew exactly where to hit even in Hungary! The distribution of the secondary targets and the precise mapping of primary targets allow me to think that the Allied air raid on Axis POL industry was immensely well-aimed; without ever setting foot on this soil. I am very well familiar with this raids as my grandparents' houses were demolished and a few members of my family were maimed or killed.

Whatever, I also recommend you this: http://uni-nke.hu/feltoltes/uni-nke.hu/ ... in_ten.pdf
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

Peter89
Member
Posts: 2369
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Europe

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Peter89 » 15 Jan 2019 16:47

ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
It's hard to say, I think the Germans started to build up their war economy step by step from 1935. This procedure got more speedy with Speer between 1943-1945.

Again, USSBS is pointing out that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943. The Allied found it amazing that the Germans produced more in 1943-1944 than in 1941-1942 despite the heavy industrial bombing in the former period. This statement reflects on that.
Last edited by Peter89 on 15 Jan 2019 21:22, edited 1 time in total.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

Hanny
Banned
Posts: 855
Joined: 26 Oct 2008 20:40

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Hanny » 15 Jan 2019 16:56

ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:14
how many members of the USSBS had visited Germany and Japan, how many spoke/understood German
The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ZgF ... es&f=false

Germany guns butter and economic miracles W Abelshauser
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Hanny
Banned
Posts: 855
Joined: 26 Oct 2008 20:40

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Hanny » 15 Jan 2019 16:58

ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53

It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
If were going to quote, can we at least get the quote right. :P You do know thats how its taught in Germany right?.
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Paul Lakowski
Member
Posts: 1441
Joined: 30 Apr 2003 05:16
Location: Canada

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Paul Lakowski » 16 Jan 2019 02:49

Hanny wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:34
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cacke is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
True, which tends to show this is no place for a gentleman. :D

What's worse is that he is still "THE MAN WITH ONE WATCH" . HE fails to see that the opinion that USSBS is biased to point of failure, is itself an opinion and therefore cannot be 'taken at face value'.

Paul Lakowski
Member
Posts: 1441
Joined: 30 Apr 2003 05:16
Location: Canada

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Paul Lakowski » 16 Jan 2019 02:54

Hanny wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:56
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:14
how many members of the USSBS had visited Germany and Japan, how many spoke/understood German
The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ZgF ... es&f=false

Germany guns butter and economic miracles W Abelshauser
That is a GREAT survey of the comparable war economies of the participants.... although HARRISON'S hypothesis that RED WAR ECONOMY was near to collapse in MAY of 1942 and only saved by the "value added" component of LL.....is universally rejected in most history forums.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 08:28

Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:47
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
It's hard to say, I think the Germans started to build up their war economy step by step from 1935. This procedure got more speedy with Speer between 1943-1945.

Again, USSBS is pointing out that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943. The Allied found it amazing that the Germans produced more in 1943-1944 than in 1941-1942 despite the heavy industrial bombing in the former period. This statement reflects on that.
With Speer, but not because of Speer . The production would have increased also without Speer .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 08:31

Hanny wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:58
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53

It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
If were going to quote, can we at least get the quote right. :P You do know thats how its taught in Germany right?.
This quote comes fromn
''The Rathenau and Speer system of War Production '' (thesis for the Army and General Staff College at Fort Leavensworth )1975, on P 133,note 202 referring to USSBS ,23 .

Hanny
Banned
Posts: 855
Joined: 26 Oct 2008 20:40

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Hanny » 17 Jan 2019 08:47

ljadw wrote:
17 Jan 2019 08:31
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .


This quote comes fromn
''The Rathenau and Speer system of War Production '' (thesis for the Army and General Staff College at Fort Leavensworth )1975, on P 133,note 202 referring to USSBS ,23 .
[/quote]

Yes i know where it comes from, which is why i asked, "If were going to quote, can we at least get the quote right".

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/b006747.pdf
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 09:05

Paul Lakowski wrote:
16 Jan 2019 02:49
Hanny wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:34
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cacke is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
True, which tends to show this is no place for a gentleman. :D

What's worse is that he is still "THE MAN WITH ONE WATCH" . HE fails to see that the opinion that USSBS is biased to point of failure, is itself an opinion and therefore cannot be 'taken at face value'.
How do you explain the willingness and eagerness of the USSBS to accept the wrong and false figures from Wagenführ and the wrong and false claims from Speer ,which resulted in the wrong and false conclusions from the USSBS ?
It was a mixture of bias, ignorance and arrogance .Galbraith arrived in Europe with the conviction that the outcome of the war proved the superiority of the US economic/political system= liberal capitalism .
What the USSBS knew about Germany could be written on one page, for what it ignored about Germany, several tomes would be needed .
And, as the average American knowledge about Europe was much bigger than the knowledge about Japan, there are sufficient reasons to be sceptical about the USSBS conclusions about Japan .
And, there is the fact,that most historians know,that most what was published about WWII immediately after WWII,is for under the bus .
We know much more than the USSBS,because more information is available and because the present generation is more objective than those who have experienced the war .
The Wages of Destruction would not have been possible in 1945 . And, you will note that Tooze is not an American .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 09:10

Paul Lakowski wrote:
16 Jan 2019 02:54
Hanny wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:56
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:14
how many members of the USSBS had visited Germany and Japan, how many spoke/understood German
The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ZgF ... es&f=false

Germany guns butter and economic miracles W Abelshauser
That is a GREAT survey of the comparable war economies of the participants.... although HARRISON'S hypothesis that RED WAR ECONOMY was near to collapse in MAY of 1942 and only saved by the "value added" component of LL.....is universally rejected in most history forums.
I know of Abelshauser and I am sceptical about Harrison .
But, is there anyone who has read "Geschichte der deutschen Kriegswirtschaft '' ( by Eichholtz ) ? Notwithstanding the usual,expected and obligatory comments about fascists and capitalists, it is considered as a must, on the same level as The Wages of Destruction .

Peter89
Member
Posts: 2369
Joined: 28 Aug 2018 05:52
Location: Europe

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by Peter89 » 17 Jan 2019 09:13

ljadw wrote:
17 Jan 2019 08:28
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:47
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
It's hard to say, I think the Germans started to build up their war economy step by step from 1935. This procedure got more speedy with Speer between 1943-1945.

Again, USSBS is pointing out that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943. The Allied found it amazing that the Germans produced more in 1943-1944 than in 1941-1942 despite the heavy industrial bombing in the former period. This statement reflects on that.
With Speer, but not because of Speer . The production would have increased also without Speer .
Of course.

Speer wasn't a magician, but he enjoyed unparalelled support from Hitler, which was essential in the increase of the military production.
Also, the political leaders of the Reich realized by early 1943 that this war is a win or die situation for them.

Before 1943 the German public opinion did matter for their leadership. Please note that the public opinion cancelled the T4 program in 1941.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 09:25

Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:47
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
It's hard to say, I think the Germans started to build up their war economy step by step from 1935. This procedure got more speedy with Speer between 1943-1945.

Again, USSBS is pointing out that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943. The Allied found it amazing that the Germans produced more in 1943-1944 than in 1941-1942 despite the heavy industrial bombing in the former period. This statement reflects on that.
The claim of the USSBS that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943 ,is wrong . This claim is caused by a wrong understanding/lack of knowledge of the German economy and of the political and military situation in that period .
Before 1943, Germany was preparing for 2 wars : a long war against Britain /US and a short war against the USSR .
That Germany produced more after 1942 during the air attacks than before 1943 without big air attacks, does not mean that Germany could have produced the same amount of war material before 1943 as after 1942 .Air attacks do not explain everything and do not determine everything . One of the things you need to produce are plants : it took at least one year , or more, to build a new plant and to make it operational .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15478
Joined: 13 Jul 2009 17:50

Re: Different German Oil Strategy

Post by ljadw » 17 Jan 2019 09:28

Peter89 wrote:
17 Jan 2019 09:13
ljadw wrote:
17 Jan 2019 08:28
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 16:47
ljadw wrote:
15 Jan 2019 15:53
Peter89 wrote:
15 Jan 2019 14:06
It's so funny when Christianmunich argues that Soviet and Western sources are biased and stupid, and when ljdaw dismiss the Western sources as biased and arrogant, but the cherry on the cake is when jesk quotes German diaries as source of alternate history.
Jesk would be a good member of the USSBS .
It was the USSBS who claimed the following :
''The German economy during the first three years of the war was a ''butter and bullets '',one operating in a leisurely,semi-peacetime fashion .''
After this absurdity, it is very mysterious that there are still people believing inconditionally or not,the claims of the USSBS .
It's hard to say, I think the Germans started to build up their war economy step by step from 1935. This procedure got more speedy with Speer between 1943-1945.

Again, USSBS is pointing out that Germany could have produced more military equipment before 1943. The Allied found it amazing that the Germans produced more in 1943-1944 than in 1941-1942 despite the heavy industrial bombing in the former period. This statement reflects on that.
With Speer, but not because of Speer . The production would have increased also without Speer .
Of course.

Speer wasn't a magician, but he enjoyed unparalelled support from Hitler, which was essential in the increase of the military production.
Also, the political leaders of the Reich realized by early 1943 that this war is a win or die situation for them.

Before 1943 the German public opinion did matter for their leadership. Please note that the public opinion cancelled the T4 program in 1941.
The increase of the military production was caused essentially by the preparatory work from Todt: Todt laid the foundations and Speer claimed the successes .

Return to “German Strategy & General German Military Discussion”