Again, this misses the point Hunger and War makes. Lend Lease fed the RKKA, removing that burden from the Soviet state and thus allowing them to focus domestic food production on the civilian populace. Removing Lend Lease would, in our hypothetical, restore that burden to the Soviet state at a time it was completely incapable of meeting both requirements:Hanny wrote: ↑18 Feb 2019, 11:40Appreciate the offer, of the pdf but i prefer to read it all. But a couple of observations untill i do.
It wont matter if the LL ( because its dry and canned goods are usfull for sending to the front) goes only to the military, SU population is the whole national, population, they all have to be fed, wherever they are,so LL contribution is compared to total food consumption, it matters not if it all went to the military. Agricultural output, was lowest in 42/3 rising dramticly thereafter in any event allowing SU to maintain 5.3 million Red army force levels in 42, rising to 6.4 in 43 rising again to 6.5 in 44.
Army rations in calories were 2,854 calories combat rations - 3.450 in 42, before rising to 3350 to 3750 calories in 44, by 45, 450,000 civialns were in reciept of military rations. Hunger and War does not use the actual calorofic content by year of SU Military rations as set down in the manuals used at the time, it prefers 4000. Humans in a military context have always required 3/4000 calories.
page 334 discusses methodology,table 5.3 List all LL sent to SU in calories.
22,874,650,250,000 caleries of LL sent over time, which supplies the Red Army for 509 days, Red Army dasilly requirement was 44,940,000,000 Red Army was at war for 1428 days, LL was in operation for 1339 days. Note it excludes feeding any animals used by the military, whose grain requirementy which is 1750 calories a day for a million horses, 1750000000 a day.
Calories required per day for 130,000,0000 at 2200 per civilian is 286,000,000,000
44,940,000,000 Military per day
286,000,000,000 Civilian per day
1750000000 horse per day
Total 332,690,000,000 per day
LL delivered per day (22,874,650,250,000/1339) 17083383308
LL calories as a % of daily requiremnt over the period of LL, 5%.
So instead of 509 for the Red Army, its 19 days for the SU.
The Bread of Affliction: The Food Supply in the USSR during World War II, by William Moskoff -
"The central fact behind the increased importance of the collective farm market was the drastic drop in food production, especially in 1942 and 1943, and the diminished proportion that went to the civilians. In 1943 overall agricultural production was only 38 percent of the 1940 level. In 1943, however, the Red Army began to recapture agricultural areas of the Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Caucasus and by the next year, 1944, agricultural output had risen to 54 percent of the 1940 level. Not surprisingly, the collapse of the food economy led to astonishing increases in prices. The most rapid rate [Emphasis by author] of increase in prices took place in 1942 and began to taper off in mid-1943."
The Soviet Economy and the Red Army, 1930-1945, by Walter Scott Dunn -
"By November of 1941, 47% of Soviet cropland was in German hands. The Germans had 38% of the grain farmland, 84% of the sugar land, 38% of the area devoted to beef and dairy cattle, and 60% of the land used to produce hogs. The Russians turned to the east and brought more land into cultivation. In the fall of 1941, the autumn and winter crops increased sharply in the eastern area. But despite all efforts, farm yields dropped from 95.5 million tons of grain in 1940 to 29.7 million tons in 1942. Production of cattle and horses dropped to less than half of prewar levels and hogs to one fifth. By 1942, meat and dairy production shrank to half the 1940 total and sugar to only 5%. Farm production in 1942 and 1943 dropped to 38% and 37% of 1940 totals."