Das Attentat

[Gorque]

So I watched the film Das Attentat (eng. "Sarajevo") and came away with the impression, from the film, that certain nationalist elements within the Austrian government had the Crown Prince assassinated in order to promote, not only their expansionist desires,, but also to thwart the Crown Prince's desire to seek a peaceful accomodation with the Serbian elements within the Austro-Hungarian Realm. Is there any truth to this conjecture? Does it, can it hold water ?

[Terry Duncan]

The idea is slightly flawed in that Princip and Co had no contact with the Austrian government and seemed to have had no contact with any Austrian officials, but plenty with anarchist and nationalist movements. However, although I cannot remember which book, it was either The Sleepwalkers or The War That Ended Peace but as I read both at the same time my memory fails me as to which contained the following, though probably the former; the visit was initially scheduled to be undertaken by Franz-Joseph but Franz-Ferdinand was persuaded to go due to the recent illness of the former when he had been thought so likely to die the latter had kept a train with steam up waiting to ferry him to the capital as soon as he was notified of the death. Franz-Ferdinand had been against going quite strongly and only relented as it would be a chance to be seen somewhere in public with his wife being treated as an equal. Given the provocative date of the visit it was always possible there would be some form of protest at least, Franz-Joseph only escaping from being assassinated in 1910 in Sarajevo when the assassin decided not to act despite every opportunity to do so, it is quite possible though unlikely that someone at court persuaded Franz-Ferdinand to go knowing it would not be sure to be a pleasant visit to undertake, which would not be improved by announcing the visit a long time in advance which would allow anyone interested to make plans to demonstrate or worse should they wish to do so.

There is a similar option for it having been engineered by the Hungarians, as Franz-Ferdinand had apparently openly considered marching the army into Hungary to effectively conquer the state in order to enforce his idea for Trialism as he knew they would try to leave the union rather than accept it and was prepared to enforce his solution. This is one of the ideas that were behind Tisza being considered a suspect at the time. Both ideas are possible and have some basis in reality although such extreme long-shots that they can effectively be dismissed as nothing has ever surfaced to offer real support to the ideas despite being looked for.

[The Ibis]

The most recent materials I've seen show that, to the extent Franz Ferdinand had serious thoughts about trialism early on, he gave them up by 1905-06. By 1909, he was saying that trialism would be a tragedy for the empire. The idea was kept alive for political purposes, but those (especially Croats) who directly addressed the subject with Franz Ferdinand and his people came away convinced he didn't support it.

[Terry Duncan]

The most recent materials I've seen show that, to the extent Franz Ferdinand had serious thoughts about trialism early on, he gave them up by 1905-06. By 1909, he was saying that trialism would be a tragedy for the empire. The idea was kept alive for political purposes, but those (especially Croats) who directly addressed the subject with Franz Ferdinand and his people came away convinced he didn't support it.

From what I read Conrad was also in favour of using the army to suppress Hungarian opposition, though of course it always seems possible to blame Conrad for wanting a militant solution to every problem. I certainly do not see Trialism as a practical solution short of a civil war type scenario, as the Hungarians were never going to give up the position they held, and many were already thinking of a separatist future by not renewing the Dual Monarchy agreement.

[Gorque]

Thanks for the replies. WWI is not my forté

[The Ibis]

The most recent materials I've seen show that, to the extent Franz Ferdinand had serious thoughts about trialism early on, he gave them up by 1905-06. By 1909, he was saying that trialism would be a tragedy for the empire. The idea was kept alive for political purposes, but those (especially Croats) who directly addressed the subject with Franz Ferdinand and his people came away convinced he didn't support it.

From what I read Conrad was also in favour of using the army to suppress Hungarian opposition, though of course it always seems possible to blame Conrad for wanting a militant solution to every problem. I certainly do not see Trialism as a practical solution short of a civil war type scenario, as the Hungarians were never going to give up the position they held, and many were already thinking of a separatist future by not renewing the Dual Monarchy agreement.

I wonder if there was a country Conrad didn't favour attacking at one time or another!