Again I'm not sure what your point is re the ATL. A central aspect of my thesis - that more mobile divisions would mean more encirclements - is asserted in DRZW Volume 6 regarding Operation Blau: that its "fundamental weakness" was an "inadequate number of mobile formations."CultIcon wrote:Case Blue was a strategic failure that cost von Bock his career- at the same time it was the last time a competitively declining German army achieved a string of minor encirclement victories and projected that level of offensive power.
Just as in Barbarossa, Germany could encircle large RKKA formations only with sufficient mobile divisions with (1) the strength to operate behind Red fronts without being overwhelmed and (2) sufficient infantry to mostly seal the pockets. In Blau, Germany deployed only 14 mobile divisions in total, on a front stretching ~1,000km. By contrast, AGC had 17 mobile divisions during its June-July encirclements on a front less than half that breadth. Taifun had even more mobile divisions on a front about as wide as the Smolensk battles.
As the DRZW scholars rightly note, all the controversy over Bock's - or any other general's - operational choices are secondary. The fact is that Germany could not have achieved all of Blau goals - especially encirclement of SU's southern forces - without additional mobile forces. Those forces were not present for several reasons, including (1) German losses during Barbarossa and (2) Germany's ridiculous decision to decrease army production during 1941 at the height of Barbarossa.
Give the Germans forces in Blau and they succeed in that campaign, give them forces in Barbarossa and they win the war.