Russian Military losses

[thorwald77]

Art, here his my reconciliation of what actually happened. It may help explain why your estimate of officer casualties does not tie out.

Soviet losses- My estimate

• KIA 5,187,100
  WIA 1,100,300
  Non Combat 541,900
  Border/Security 159,100
  POWs - MIA 4,455,600
  Returned after 10/1944 (2,016,000)
  Returned before 10/1944 (313,500)
  In German Service (939,700)
  Died sickness 267,400
  Abroad 2/1/1946 226,000
  Official statistic 8,668,200
  
  Adjustments:
  In German Service 939,700
  MIA 500,000
  Convicts 557,700
  Adj. for surrounded personnel 313,500
  Never inducted 1,000,000
  Returned during 2/1946 (35,000)
  Bal per schedule of conscripts 11,944,100

• POWs per German records 5,269
  Returned per Krivosheev (2,329)
  Border/Security-MIA 103
  Returned after 10/1944 2,016
  Balance MIA/POW per Kirvosheev 5,059

In German Service 939,000 Krivosheev tells this on p.463 of the 2001 ed.(600K+339K)
Never inducted 1,000,000 Krivosheev tells this on p.339 of the 1993 ed.

[thorwald77]

Статистикой чаще всего пользуются так же, как пьяный фонарным столбом — больше для поддержки, чем для освещения.

[mars]

Статистикой чаще всего пользуются так же, как пьяный фонарным столбом — больше для поддержки, чем для освещения.

Bravo, well said

[thorwald77]

This is a summary of Soviet losses using data from the Glasnost period.

Irrecoverable losses of Soviet forces conscripted 1941-1945
Corrected version

• Killed in action 5,185,000 A.
  Non combat deaths 534,000 A.
  Died of wounds 1,100,000 B.
  Reported missing 4,452,000 A.
  Missing recovered (2,329,000) C.
  Not returned Feb.1946 226,000 D.
  Irrecoverable losses per Krivoshev 9,168,000
  
  Balance of those conscripted
  Died of Sicknes 267,000 B.
  Convicts executed 135,000 E.
  Convicts sent penal units 422,000 E.
  "Forced labor in Germany" 2,164,000 D.
  Less:Deserters (212,000) E.
  Balance losses of those conscripted 11,944,000

Notes:
A. Total losses of the individual fronts and fleets in Krivosheev report.
B. Listed in the schedule of sick and wounded in Krivosheev report.
C.Krivosheev report 2001ed. P.463. includes those free before 10/1944
D. А. ШЕВЯКОВ-«ТАЙНЫ» ПОСЛЕВОЕННОЙ РЕПАТРИАЦИИ
2016K POW less 1790K returned by 2/1946
E. From Krivosheev schedule of those conscripted.
F. Total losses of the fronts and fleets in Krivosheev report
does not include Border and Security forces.

[Art]

As I explained, I'm a little skeptical regarding your exercise with numbers. Yet I want to comments on some peripheral questions:

Non combat deaths 534,000

As I said about 10 or 20 times "non-combat losses" were actually not non-combat deaths, whatever Krivosheev's team said. Moreover, the number is given as a sum of losses reported by operational fronts/armies/fleets etc. Military districts/non-operational forces are ignored. Yes, it's quite probably that Soviet non-battle deaths were close to this number, but only as a pure coincidence.

Convicts executed 135,000

Not executed but sentenced to execution by military tribunals. Of those sentences a pretty large number were either made in absentia or rescinded by higher authorities.

Convicts sent penal units 422,000

Sentenced to jail terms with application of the Article 28 of the RSFSR Criminal Code
viewtopic.php?p=2152006#p2152006
Simply explained: not necessarily to penal units. Again, it's not clear if this is a raw number of initial sentences or revisions made by higher level courts are included.

Deserters

The numbers of desertions, executions and jail sentences in the operational army are actually included in 534,000 non-combat losses.

[thorwald77]

Art, I cannot second guess or correct Krivosheev, nor am I am not saying that his figures represent what actually happened during the war. However, I believe that there is very high probability that the combination of figures I present below represents the General Staff estimate of the actual losses. The figures in the Krivosheev schedules for the Army groups and Fleets add down to 9.168 million, this cannot be disputed. There is a total demographic loss of 11.944 million that has never been adequately explained. The huge discrepancy may represent reservists never inducted, convicts and those who died of natural causes. We do not see the original documents that Krivosheev was working with, only his summary schedule with a plug of 939,700 that forced the total of 9,168 million on the page. At this point the Krivosheev figures are endorsed by the General Staff, this cannot represent the total demographic loss. It lacks credibility. I believe that the figures from Soviet sources that add down to 11.944 million are our best guide to understanding the 1946 General Staff estimate of actual losses.

• KIA 5,184,749
  Non combat 534,273
  DOW 1,102,800
  Died Hosp 267,394
  Border Sec 159,100
  POWs 3,912,283
  Abroad 2/46 225,836
  Convicts 557,700
  Total 11,944,135

[thorwald77]

I believe that the article in Ludskie Poteri by Sherviakov pp. 178-81 is important to understanding how the Soviets viewed the issue of POWs/MIA. They computed the total losses at 4.263 million, the military portion in the Krivosheev was 3.043 million, 212,400 were deserters and 1 million were reservists who were sent to German POW camps, 939,700 were plugged away by Krivosheev who arrived at a total of 2.103 million , M.V. Philimoshin solved the problem of the difference by detailing the 2.164 million Soviet civilians who died as forced workers in Germany. Thank you comrade Philimoshin.

• Total captured 10,181.0
  Freeded (5,917.0)
  Sum POW MIA 4.263
  Less
  Deserters (212.0)
  Reservists (1,009.0)
  Bal Military Losses 3,043.0
  Krivosheev Plug (939.7)
  Krivosheev balance 2,103.3
  
  Krivosheev study POW 5,059.0
  Released (2,016.0)
  Actual losses 3,043.0
  
  Total captured 10,181.0
  Freeded (5,917.0)
  Krivosheev balance (2,100.0)
  Philomoshin balance 2,164.0

[thorwald77]

I believe that the Krivosheev schedules of the 54 Army groups are incomplete because they lack a beginning and ending balance. Commanders in the field would more than likely be required to submit strength reports detailing their losses. On page 245 of the 2009 edition we see the average strength of the field forces. That means that there had to be strength reports showing a running balance that would detail the beginning balance, casualties and replacements sent in during the quarter in question and the ending quarter balance. “Irrecoverable losses” may include MIA,POWs, deserters and convicts sent to NKVD penal units. If this is the case the category of deserters and convicts would be a duplication if they are listed as separate categories. We need to see the strength reports detailing how the General Staff kept track of the losses and replacements. Have they been published?

• A Possibility
  Deserters 212.4
  Border Sec 159.1
  Convicts 557.7
  Misc 10.2
  Total Duplication's 939.7

[Art]

There were detailed balance reports for divisions (at least I've seen many from 1944). An example of how it looked:

124 Rifle Division as of 1.7.44 - 642 officers, 1442 NCOs, 2957 privates on strength, total 5041
Arrivals in July
91 officers from the 43 Rifle Corps
replacements - 106 NCOs+295 privates
from hospitals - 2 NCOs, 10 privates
NCOs demoted to privates - 20
privates promoted to NCOs - 9

Departures:
Losses according to the casualty report - 89+273+526 = 888
privates promoted to NCOs - 9
to courses of junior lieutenants - 36 NCOs, 5 privates
to an academy - 1 officer
former pilots transferred - 3 NCOs
to party leaders courses - 6 NCOs
pregnant women demobilized - 1 NCO+2 privates
NCOs demoted to privates - 20
to the staff of the 59 Army - 1 officer
deserters - 1 private
Total departures - 91 officers, 339 NCOs, 543 privates = 973 men

On strength as of 1.08.1944 - 642 officers, 1220 NCOs, 2739 privates, total 4601 men.
(TsAMO f. 1337, op.1. d.73, l.167)

On division/brigade levels reports on strength and losses were submitted every 5 days. On army/front - every 10 days. I doubt that there were such detailed balance checks on the front level, there were too many sub-units involved. In any case in addition to personnel strength arrivals/departures of units and replacements had to be reported every 10 days.

If we address the most problematic period - the year 1941 (and 1942 to some extent) both the personnel situation and reporting were very haphazard. For example, there were huge numbers of stragglers collected and assimilated into alien units. That made precise accounting very difficult.

convicts sent to NKVD penal units

[thorwald77]

That made precise accounting very difficult.

Not really, its very easy. Every unit in the field telegraphs a periodic strength report to the communications department of the General Staff in Moscow. The clerk in the communications department organizes the telegraphs by Army Groups and units He then walks the envelopes up to the accounting department. The accounting department consists of 100 Russian women using the Абак. The 100 Russian women each issue a separate summary report that is double checked for accuracy by the lead accountant. The lead accountant has a strict deadline to finish her main summary report. She signs her main summary report report and walks it up to Shemenko's office. Shemenko reviews the report and has it delivered to Comrade Stalin in the Kremlin.

[thorwald77]

We know for sure that the 557,700 convicts are included in the 11,944,100 total losses conscripted because Mihalev points out the the difference between the Red Star article of May 1993 and Krivosheev's report.

KIA 5,187.2
Non Combat 541.9
DOW 1,100.3
Sickness 267.3
MIA/POW 3,305.6
Returned POWs (2,016.5)
Convicts 557.7
Abroad Feb 1946 225.0
Per Krivosheev 9,168.5

Border 159.1
MIA/POW 1,650.0
Never Conscripted 1,000.0
Abroad returned (35.0)
DOW adj 1.4
Per Conscripted Report 11,944.0

[Art]

Not really, its very easy. Every unit in the field telegraphs a periodic strength report

I guess, that is where "very easy" part ends in realities of 1941.
In any case, nothing is known about regular balance checks made by the Soviet General Staff, although they had certain doubts regarding accuracy of reported casualties numbers:
http://www.solonin.org/en/doc_spravka-o ... ti-krasnoy
Some sort of estimates to clarify the issue of casualties were made in 1942. In September 1942 general Schadenko reported to Stalin about 4.9 million killed, missing and prisoners as of 1.09.1942. It is not completely clear how and with what method he arrived to this number.

[thorwald77]

The balance of 11.944 million is a reconciliation of those conscripted. In the 1946 balance there are 3.912 million POWS according to Pavel Polian, in addition there were 212,000 deserters dead or missing in German service. 3912POW+212.deserters+103border guard=4.227 million MIA/POW

Mihalev shows us a general staff report from July 1945 with 3.344 MIA/POW and 2.015 million released yielding a net loss of 1.329 million. The unexplained difference is 2.898 million.

Krivosheev was the best and the brightest on the General Staff in 1993, he issued a report that claimed 2.103 million MIA/POW. His buddy, comrade Philimoshen issued a separate report claiming 2.164 million civilians died as forced laborers in Germany. 2.103+2.164=4.267 million MIA/POW

The Krivosheev report details 5.059 MIA/POW and 2.015 million released yielding a net loss of 3.043 million. This balance may be the result of a 1966 General Staff study. Krivosheev deducts 939.7 million to arrive at his balance of a 2.103 million MIA/POW.

I have read Mark Solonin, I suspect that he failed Accounting in college and decided instead to work as an aircraft mechanic.

1993

• KIA 5,187.2
  DOW 1,100.3
  Non Combat 541.9
  Border 159.1
  MIA 4,955.6
  Released (2,016.0)
  "duplications" (939.7)
  Abroad 180.0
  Krivosheev 9,168.4
  
  Sickness 267.0
  convicts 557.0
  Forced labor 2,164.0
  Less deserters (212.4)
  Total conscripted 11,944.0

1946

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non Combat 534.3
  DOW 1,102.8
  Sickness 267.4
  Border 159.1
  POWs 3,912.2
  convicts 557.7
  Abroad Feb 1946 225.9
  Total conscripted 11,944.1

[thorwald77]

What we need to see

On page 217 of the 2010 edition of Krivosheev we need to see the data for each category broken out by month, June 1941 to Sept 1945. The grand total would equal the figures on page 217. Also we need a reconciliation to the ADK total of 26.613 million total losses. A professional report would also have copies of the original source documents that support the data. At this point the entire Krivosheev report is as soft as shit.

[thorwald77]

I have tweeked the numbers and arrived at what is the final version. I finally unscrambled Krivosheev's numbers.

• KIA 5,226.8
  DOW 1,102.8
  Non combat 555.5
  Sickness 267.3
  "Missing" 5,059.0
  Released (2,016.5)
  Abroad 180.0
  Deserters (212.4)
  Convicts (994.3)
  Bal. Krivosveev 9,168.2
  
  Forced Labor 2,164.3
  Deserters 994.3
  Convicts 212.4
  Total Losses 12,539.2

He excluded the convicts and deserters