At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
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checkov
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1141

Post by checkov » 05 Sep 2019, 03:39

I'm not sure what PH means,

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1142

Post by ljadw » 05 Sep 2019, 07:45

checkov wrote:
05 Sep 2019, 03:39
I'm not sure what PH means,
Pearl Harbour


checkov
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1143

Post by checkov » 06 Sep 2019, 04:29

Oh, of course Pearl Harbor air attack by the Japanese.

IMO they had nothing significant to gain from a DOW on the USA. They could have spoken diplomatically about trying to keep the war "limited", that they wanted peace with the USA. Perhaps simultaneously condemned the USA for antagonizing Japan butprivately explained to all of the axis partners that they had little to gain from a DOW and that they would support Japan clandestinely. Japan was just too far away to offer tangible cooperation.

I understand Hitler was originally against the idea of the DOW but was (for once) swayed by arguments by the Kreigsmarine high command that U Boat arms would force the USA to its knees. In truth they did have "good hunting" and a second "happy time" but the effects were transitory and within I think 6 months or so the USA had organized its convoy system and started ramping up ship production.

After that the USA became the production powerhouse and arsenal of the allied forces, as well as providing considerable combat forces (especially in the air, Ive read the Luftwaffe was destroyed as an effective fighting force by the combined effect of British and American air power in 43).

I think Roosevelt was intent on war with Germany and it would have came. The question is how much longer, how much of a break would Germany have had. IMO it's likely the cry for revenge would have been so strong the USA would have concentrated its forces on Japan first. This might have given Europe 6 months, a year..two years? Who knows. Just imagine what one full year would have given Germany. Supplies to the USSR less, I've read they started to have an effect by Stalingrad. Indeed I've even heard Stalin considered a negotiated peace with Germany in 43, perhaps without being backed up by the might of the most powerful economy on the p,anet he might have offered better terms and Hitler might have accepted. No invasion of North Africa in 42, perhaps allowing the axis to win there or at least keeping Italy in the war longer. Enough time for the Luftwaffe to remain effective and perhaps bring in Jet technology. Less effective or at least delayed bombing campaigns against Germany allowing more production.

Instead a German DOW allowed them to face a deluge of supplies and equipment as well as new combat forces to contend with, and that in an amazingly short amount of time.

Hitler, as usual, proved he was incapable of sound strategic decisions. So I will stick by my earlier assertion, it was stupid.

Regards.

Paul Lakowski
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1144

Post by Paul Lakowski » 06 Sep 2019, 06:13

or he was always high...his behaviour makes more sense that way.

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1145

Post by ljadw » 06 Sep 2019, 06:48

No : PH would inevitably result in war between US and Germany,besides,this was already de facto going on before PH.In October the Reuben James ( 100 casualties ) and the Kearney were lost .
If Germany did not declare war on the US,the US would declare war on Germany : for the Wasps,Germany was the principal enemy, not Japan .

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1146

Post by ljadw » 06 Sep 2019, 06:57

checkov wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 04:29
Oh, of course Pearl Harbor air attack by the Japanese.

IMO they had nothing significant to gain from a DOW on the USA. They could have spoken diplomatically about trying to keep the war "limited", that they wanted peace with the USA. Perhaps simultaneously condemned the USA for antagonizing Japan butprivately explained to all of the axis partners that they had little to gain from a DOW and that they would support Japan clandestinely. Japan was just too far away to offer tangible cooperation.

I understand Hitler was originally against the idea of the DOW but was (for once) swayed by arguments by the Kreigsmarine high command that U Boat arms would force the USA to its knees. In truth they did have "good hunting" and a second "happy time" but the effects were transitory and within I think 6 months or so the USA had organized its convoy system and started ramping up ship production.

After that the USA became the production powerhouse and arsenal of the allied forces, as well as providing considerable combat forces (especially in the air, Ive read the Luftwaffe was destroyed as an effective fighting force by the combined effect of British and American air power in 43).

I think Roosevelt was intent on war with Germany and it would have came. The question is how much longer, how much of a break would Germany have had. IMO it's likely the cry for revenge would have been so strong the USA would have concentrated its forces on Japan first. This might have given Europe 6 months, a year..two years? Who knows. Just imagine what one full year would have given Germany. Supplies to the USSR less, I've read they started to have an effect by Stalingrad. Indeed I've even heard Stalin considered a negotiated peace with Germany in 43, perhaps without being backed up by the might of the most powerful economy on the p,anet he might have offered better terms and Hitler might have accepted. No invasion of North Africa in 42, perhaps allowing the axis to win there or at least keeping Italy in the war longer. Enough time for the Luftwaffe to remain effective and perhaps bring in Jet technology. Less effective or at least delayed bombing campaigns against Germany allowing more production.

Instead a German DOW allowed them to face a deluge of supplies and equipment as well as new combat forces to contend with, and that in an amazingly short amount of time.

Hitler, as usual, proved he was incapable of sound strategic decisions. So I will stick by my earlier assertion, it was stupid.

Regards.
1 LL to the SU would continue even without war with Germany
2 Negotiated peace between the USSR and Germany in 1943 is an invention .
3 Torch did not decide the war in NA, but Alamein
4 Even in 1943 the strategic bombing on Germany was executed principally by the RAF, not by the USAAF.Bomber sorties in 1943 by BC 47471, by 8th AF 10981 ( the Fall of the LW P 251 )
5 It took til February 1943 before the first US ground forces were fighting against Axis ground forces .

checkov
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1147

Post by checkov » 06 Sep 2019, 22:07

On number one are you actually saying the amount of LL sent from the USA to USSR was the same or more than after a German DOW made the USA and USSR active allies? Really? German DOW on the USA caused it to basically double in the first year and turn into a flood by 44.

Year Amount Lend Lease to the USSR from Allies
(tons) %
1941 360,778 2.1
1942 2,453,097 14
1943 4,794,545 27.4
1944 6,217,622 35.5
1945 3,673,819 21
Total 17,499,861

On number two: Its just what I've read. You seem very certain. Perhaps you are right on this one? I haven't had time to look into it.

Number three: When did I say the Torch landing was the deciding factor? It made the axis position in NA just much more untenable.

Number four: The added weight of US air might made the difference in 43. It wasn't just a numbers game anyway. The USA concentrated on precision day bombing, and the British at night. This "round the clock bombing" put a much greater strain on the Germans than just the Brits at night. Furthermore excellent long range fighters like the Mustang created unfavorable attrition. I will admit I was a little off in my time reference, 44 saw the actual destruction of the Luftwaffe. I am not admitting I was wrong though, just look up a graph showing losses of German aircraft and they suddenly spike in 43 and by the end are comparable to much of 44. That effect is the US air actions.

Number five: You are mistaken friend. "Germans attacked US positions at El Guessa in Tunisia" on Dec 6, 1942. Source, Gorlaski.
I don't feel like researching it now but I'm fairly sure there was an even earlier bizarre contact where US Stuart tanks broke into a German airbase and destroyed several fighter planes. Furthermore you would admit actual conflict is not needed to divert German Ground Forces? Germany started reinforcing Tunisia a month earlier due to Torch. Troops that could all have been sent to the British side of NA.

checkov
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1148

Post by checkov » 06 Sep 2019, 23:38

Oh yes. I got so busy with the details that I forgot one of my main comments.

A certain Commonwealth author and historian, a Mr Roberts, gave a speech at the US Army war college which was youtubed. It was about the strategic mistakes Germany (i.e. Hitler) made that lost them the war.

In it he said one of the biggest mistakes , "classic and colossal" in nature, Hitler made was the DOW on the USA. He said it was stupid for one reason because the USA would be impossible to be invaded. Then he went on about the same things I mentioned, huge production capability of US economy. He went on that in general the German High command was very ignorant of the nature of the USA. Only one person, Ribbentrop, had any experience. That was he had a failed champaign export business in NYC for a while. Hitler was so magnificently stupid and ignorant that in a dinner at Berchtesgaden with an officer (name I forget) Hitler said the USA would swing their entire might aginst Japan and IT WOULD BE UNTIL AT LEAST 1970 THAT THE USA COULD LAND COMBAT TROOPS IN EUROPE" :lol: :lol: :lol:

On the other hand many in the armament and production industry knew very well what capability the USA had. On hearing the news of Hitler's stupid, stupid decision of a DOW on the USA one of Speers staff promptly went home and shot himself.

john2
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1149

Post by john2 » 07 Sep 2019, 05:57

It was certainly a blunder but at the same time the US had already taken a lot of active measures against Germany. The US and Germany were definitely drifting towards war. What Hitler's dow did was speed up the process while handing Roosevelt a valuable propaganda gift. One question that hasn't been brought up is how Hitler not declaring war would affect Japan. Wouldn't the Japanese feel betrayed? I read before one of the reasons Hitler declared war was to encourage Japan to stay in the fight fearing they might change their minds and make peace if Germany didn't help them.

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1150

Post by ljadw » 07 Sep 2019, 08:19

checkov wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 22:07
On number one are you actually saying the amount of LL sent from the USA to USSR was the same or more than after a German DOW made the USA and USSR active allies? Really? German DOW on the USA caused it to basically double in the first year and turn into a flood by 44.

Year Amount Lend Lease to the USSR from Allies
(tons) %
1941 360,778 2.1
1942 2,453,097 14
1943 4,794,545 27.4
1944 6,217,622 35.5
1945 3,673,819 21
Total 17,499,861

On number two: Its just what I've read. You seem very certain. Perhaps you are right on this one? I haven't had time to look into it.

Number three: When did I say the Torch landing was the deciding factor? It made the axis position in NA just much more untenable.

Number four: The added weight of US air might made the difference in 43. It wasn't just a numbers game anyway. The USA concentrated on precision day bombing, and the British at night. This "round the clock bombing" put a much greater strain on the Germans than just the Brits at night. Furthermore excellent long range fighters like the Mustang created unfavorable attrition. I will admit I was a little off in my time reference, 44 saw the actual destruction of the Luftwaffe. I am not admitting I was wrong though, just look up a graph showing losses of German aircraft and they suddenly spike in 43 and by the end are comparable to much of 44. That effect is the US air actions.

Number five: You are mistaken friend. "Germans attacked US positions at El Guessa in Tunisia" on Dec 6, 1942. Source, Gorlaski.
I don't feel like researching it now but I'm fairly sure there was an even earlier bizarre contact where US Stuart tanks broke into a German airbase and destroyed several fighter planes. Furthermore you would admit actual conflict is not needed to divert German Ground Forces? Germany started reinforcing Tunisia a month earlier due to Torch. Troops that could all have been sent to the British side of NA.
On point 1 : I did not say this : I said that even without war between Germany and USA, US would still send LL supplies to the USSR. In fact, these supplies started before December 11 1941 . That more supplies were sent to the USSR after the DOW on December 11,was not caused by this DOW,but because before December 11`not more supplies were available : LL to Britain had priority .
On point 5 : there is no proof that the forces sent to Tunesia after Torch,could be sent to the British side of NA .Because of logistical difficulties .
And these forces would not make the difference if Rommel could have them .

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1151

Post by ljadw » 07 Sep 2019, 08:33

It has been said in post 147 that the US did precision day bombings and that Britain attacked at night . This is very questionable .
From ''Eagle in Flames " P 278 Table 80 :
Allied Day Operations against Western Europe January 1943- May 1944.
For 1943
Day Sorties by Bomber Command : some 10000
Day sorties by USAAF Bombers : some 14700
Day Sorties by Fighter Command : 80,384
Day Sorties by USAAF Fighters : 12749
While it is correct that USAAF did day attacks, it is not correct to say that the RAF did only night attacks .

Boby
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1152

Post by Boby » 07 Sep 2019, 10:25

checkov wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 23:38
Hitler said the USA would swing their entire might aginst Japan and IT WOULD BE UNTIL AT LEAST 1970 THAT THE USA COULD LAND COMBAT TROOPS IN EUROPE" :lol: :lol: :lol:

On the other hand many in the armament and production industry knew very well what capability the USA had. On hearing the news of Hitler's stupid, stupid decision of a DOW on the USA one of Speers staff promptly went home and shot himself.
1970? Why not 2019?

Borbet? was not in Speer Staff, because Speer was not Reichsminister at the time.

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Terry Duncan
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1153

Post by Terry Duncan » 07 Sep 2019, 11:45

A post from Peter89 was removed as it drifted into commentary that could be conceived as dealing with the contemporary period, so was removed to prevent any other posts following in that line. Please try to stick to the topic at hand and not wander onto others outside the scope of the thread.

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1154

Post by ljadw » 07 Sep 2019, 14:35

it is very questionable to equalize day bombings with precision bombings, implying that night bombingd were not precise :
Operation Chastize (Dambusters ) was a success and happened at night .
Operation Gomorrah resulted in the destruction of a big part of Hamburg and was a combination of 4 nightly RAF and 2 daily USAAF attacks. There is no proof that the 2 American attacks were more precise than the 4 RAF attacks .
On April 5 1943, the USAAF attacked by day factories in the center of Mortsel (suburb of Antwerp) ;the factories were only slightly damaged ,but 936 civilians died, of whom 200 + children .
Reality is that 75 years ago ,the means ( navigational and others ) that were available,were that primitive,that precision bombings happened only exceptionally,and that a lot of night attacks with good weather were more successful than day attacks by bad weather . The only way to destroy something was to drop a lot of boms on the target . I am also not convinced that today the situation is totally different .
Everyone knew that air attacks ( by day/night ) would result in civilian casualties ( collateral damage ) and no one cared about,as the mission had priority .

HistoryGeek2019
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#1155

Post by HistoryGeek2019 » 09 Sep 2019, 00:52

Hitler had always planned for war against the United States. He viewed the USA as a threat that Germany could deal with rather than a giant that would crush him. He severely overestimated the time it would take the USA to pose an existential threat to Germany and thought he could secure West Africa and the Eastern Atlantic Islands against the USA. Norman Goda details this in Tomorrow the World.

Likewise, Hitler and the High Command were jubilant when news of Pearl Harbor reached them. They had long believed that US entry into the war was inevitable, but now they had the Japanese navy as an ally. They believed that Germany's Uboats and the Japanese navy could hold off there USA long enough for Germany to secure its hold on Europe. The reasoning behind the declaration of war was to stretch the US Navy with a two front war.

Ultimately, it didn't matter. FDR wanted war with Germany and was going to get it. The US military would have mobilized just as fast as in the OTL if Germany hadn't declared war. The only difference it might have made is maybe Operation Torch gets pushed back a few months. But D-Day still happens on June 6, 1944, and Germany still surrenders in May 1945.

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