I did not confuse tons with barrels : the source I consulted (Japan's need for oil and the embargo ) mentions very clearly that Japan demanded in September 1940 an increase of its oil imports from the DEI from 570000 tons to 3,75 million tons .Takao wrote: ↑29 Feb 2020 13:38You have confused tons with barrels...ljadw wrote: ↑29 Feb 2020 08:37About the DEI : on September 12 1940 ( long before the US oil embargo ) a Japanese delegation went to Batavia and asked an increase of its oil imports from 570000 tons to 3,750,000 tons , which was refused by the Dutch . And ...Japan accepted this refusal .
Five questions :
1 Why did Japan ask in September 1940 for an increase of its oil imports of 3,180,000 tons ? The decision to attack PH was taken only 14 months later .
2 Why did Japan ask this to the Dutch ? And why not to Mexico ,Venezuela,...
3 Why accepted Japan the Dutch refusal ?
4 Did Japan have the means to pay for this oil ?
5 What was the result of the Dutch refusal ? The Japanese economy did not collaps ,afaics .
The refusal was accepted, because Japan was using diplomacy first...If diplomacy failed, the military option would be exercised.
1. Japan was preparing to go to war, and was building up her strategic oil reserve. Estimates of oil consumption during her prospective war had shown that a greater reserve was needed.
2. Japan would be using her own tankers, and shorter trips allowed for a faster build up of the reserve. Also, these tankers would not be in possible "hostile" waters/ports if and when a recall order went out.
3. The refusal was "accepted", because, diplomatically, all avenues had been exhausted. Now, a military solution would be found, and it was.
4. To the best of my knowledge they did. However, Japan was going broke paying for her war in China, building up I the Army, and building up the Navy. In all likelyhood, Japan would have been insolvent by the end of 1942.
5. The economy wasn't expected to collapse because of the Dutch refusal...But, it was collapsing. Japan was putting 25% or more into her military matters, which for Japan was unsustainable.
The reason is obvious : it was not to be able to attack the DEI in December 1941,but to replace the 28 million barrels ( =3.5 million ton ) they imported from the US , an import they feared to lose .In September 1940 Japan could very easily have started the war with bigger chances for winning in the first year,but it did not .That it did not start the war in 1940,proves that it did not need the oil of the DEI,otherwise it would have invaded the DEI .The first priority of Japan in 1940 was to finish the war in China .If this war was over successfully, Japan's economic problems would be over .But an invasion of the DEI would not finish the war in China ,neither would this invasion solve Japan's economic problems .