At what point did Germany lose WW2?

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glenn239
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by glenn239 » 28 Jul 2020 17:53

ljadw wrote:
27 Jul 2020 18:33
2) There is no proof that Stalin would have done if there was no Barbarossa what you claim he could/would have done .
WHY would he invade Iran ?
I told you why he'd be interested in the Persian Gulf. Dominating the oil and expanding communism into the Empires, which were decrepit and ripe to fall.
After the choice of Willkie as GOP candidate, war with the US was inevitable : peace draft, 2 ocean navy, LL,...
War between the US and Germany was likely by June 1940. But not inevitable. The most important factor to keeping the US neutral were French independence and Germany being on good terms with the USSR. Both of these things were within Germany's control.
General time was running against Germany, that's why at the end of June Hitler was thinking of Barbarossa in 1940 .
The issue in 1940 was the weakness of the British Empire, not its strength. If Hitler let Stalin alone, then Stalin - by his own letter to Hitler in 1940 - was going to resolve Finland, clarify matters with Japan, and expand southwards into Bulgaria, Turkey and the Persian Gulf. Time was not 'running against' Germany. Either the US came in (in which case time did not matter), or it did not, (in which case time did not matter).
If Germany withdrew from France, a new BEF would land in Normandy and everything would restart : what Germany conquered by force, it had to conserve it by force
Highly amusing. If Germany made peace with France, Germany would retain the Maginot Line and the important fortresses in Belgium. If the British actually did what you suggest - land in Normandy with a BEF - then the German army would erupt from behind the Maginot Line, obliterate the BEF in a swift campaign, then withdraw back to the Maginot Line, all as part of the peace treaty with France.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 29 Jul 2020 10:25

Invading Iran would give the USSR not a domination of oil,as the ME oil production from 1940 was only 4 % of the world oil production .

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 29 Jul 2020 11:18

There was nothing in Iran/Turkey,.. that Stalin needed,but,only millions of hostile Muslims,whom a wise communist dictator should avoid .
Besides :
HOW would the Red Army invade Iran ? A country without roads and railways but with a lot of deserts.
HOW would the Red Army invade Turkey ? Through the Caucasus was impossible, using the Black Sea implies a navy which Stalin did not have ,via the Balkans was excluded .
In 1948, Tito rebelled and Stalin did not invade Yugoslavia but was limited to purge the communist leaders in the other countries .
And, WHERE would Stalin get the millions of soldiers need to occupied Turkey, Iran, ...?
He did not invade Afghanistan,why would he invade Turkey,Iran,...?

mezsat2
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by mezsat2 » 29 Jul 2020 11:53

Globalization41 wrote:
27 Jul 2020 00:47
Hitler could have avoided losing the war after June 22, 1941, by not declaring war on America. The Eastern Front would have most likely ended in a stalemate. … … Stalin wanted a Finnish puppet state. Before the Soviet 1944 summer offensive in eastern Europe, he was looking for any concessions that would get him closer to that. The Soviets made a lot of noise in the direction of Finland before going all out against Hitler with possibly the most massive offensive of all time. Fortress Europe was under siege. It was only a matter of time for Finland. But there was still a chance of avoiding Siberia. The Finns could hide out infinitely in a vast countryside of lakes and forests. Stalin would have been stuck in a political and military quagmire. Finland would have been high maintenance. … I'm not sure if post-WWII Finland was subject to Soviet extradition.

Globalization41.
This is possible, but unlikely. Germany had already gone full bore against US merchant (and military) vessels by that time. The US was therefore leaning towards intervention regardless. My point was in the event that Germany did nothing whatsoever to Britain after the fall of France. No bombings, no U-Boat attacks, etc. A bit of research into the American political system and the sentiment of the populace would reveal no intention whatsoever of intervening in a German-Russo war. On paper, Britain eventually just takes care of Italy in the Mediterranean and defends her far east holdings from Japan. The US obviously goes in against Japan as well after Pearl Harbor. The anti-communist sentiment, however, in both countries, makes it unlikely they'll intervene on behalf of Stalin.

Hitler may have just said "OK, we're done in the west" and launched Barbarossa the following year. What actions this may have precipitated from Stalin is hard to say, although it's likely he'd recognize immediately Hitler's intention of turning on him. It's all very much guesswork.

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 29 Jul 2020 13:16

mezsat2 wrote:
29 Jul 2020 11:53



A bit of research into the American political system and the sentiment of the populace would reveal no intention whatsoever of intervening in a German-Russo war.
This is not correct : USA were helping the USSR already before December 11 1941.

Paul Lakowski
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Paul Lakowski » 29 Jul 2020 16:09

ljadw wrote:
29 Jul 2020 13:16
mezsat2 wrote:
29 Jul 2020 11:53



A bit of research into the American political system and the sentiment of the populace would reveal no intention whatsoever of intervening in a German-Russo war.
This is not correct : USA were helping the USSR already before December 11 1941.
GALLUP POLLs
It appears that the only thing that swung the POLLs in favor of American involvement in war was Pearl Harbour . Hitler's war decleration demanded American involvement Europe.

No demand no war.....at least from that POV.

BTW many believe America would gladly have sat on the sidelines and let each side batter each other to death. Post war Britain ECHOED with sentiment's like...... WILL THE YANKS BACK US!

I remember hearing those words, as a school kid back in Edinburgh in the 1960s ...didn't understand it then. Being NATO born it was always assumed "ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALL."

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 29 Jul 2020 18:29

Gallup polls are not very serious : they predicted GOP victories in 1936 and 1948 and a Democratic victory in 2016 .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 29 Jul 2020 18:37

Averell Harriman went to Moscow in September 1941 and LL to the USSR started in October 1941, two months before USA and Germany were at war .

Paul Lakowski
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Paul Lakowski » 30 Jul 2020 03:29

ljadw wrote:
29 Jul 2020 18:29
Gallup polls are not very serious : they predicted GOP victories in 1936 and 1948 and a Democratic victory in 2016 .

Too Roosevelt GALLUP POLLs allowed him to steer a course through politics and he never went any were with out them. They repeatly told him to avoid war , especially in Europe.

It was critical to America's entry into the war.

Churchill ALMOST had to cave in to the war-cabinet during DUNKIRK and enter peace negotiations through Mussolini in mid 1940. When he turned to Roosevelt for help , he hid behind the legalities of Congressional politics and had to refuse any help to Churchill.

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hambubger
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by hambubger » 30 Jul 2020 04:05

It was the mud that first did the Reich in. When Stalingrad was lost, to put it most succinctly. However, other drivers include:

-Hitler becoming a meth-head
-The US entering the war
-Natural resource needs exceeding their supply, 42-43, and the food shortage was also driven by poor weather at the time

Post winter of '43, there wasn't really anything much else the Wehrmacht could do, given the limitations and circumstances at that time. Even if Kursk and Battle of the Bulge were reversed in the Reich's favor, it would have just only prolonged the war, and mildly, at that.
"Look, if I had a ticket to Paradise and you didn't have one... I'd tear mine up and I'd go to Hell with you." -Jack Wagner, "Premonition" (1984)

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 30 Jul 2020 13:48

Paul Lakowski wrote:
30 Jul 2020 03:29
ljadw wrote:
29 Jul 2020 18:29
Gallup polls are not very serious : they predicted GOP victories in 1936 and 1948 and a Democratic victory in 2016 .

Too Roosevelt GALLUP POLLs allowed him to steer a course through politics and he never went any were with out them. They repeatly told him to avoid war , especially in Europe.

It was critical to America's entry into the war.

Churchill ALMOST had to cave in to the war-cabinet during DUNKIRK and enter peace negotiations through Mussolini in mid 1940. When he turned to Roosevelt for help , he hid behind the legalities of Congressional politics and had to refuse any help to Churchill.
To refuse any help to Churchill? And the Destroyer Deal ?
And The British Purchasing Commission in the USA? There was no German Purchasing Commission .
And Cash and Carry ? Adopted by Congress in November..1939 .
Cash and Carry was restricted to Britain and France .
If you sell war materials to one party and refuse to sell them to the other party,it is obvious that you make a choice .

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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 31 Jul 2020 07:56

hambubger wrote:
30 Jul 2020 04:05
It was the mud that first did the Reich in. When Stalingrad was lost, to put it most succinctly. However, other drivers include:

-Hitler becoming a meth-head
-The US entering the war
-Natural resource needs exceeding their supply, 42-43, and the food shortage was also driven by poor weather at the time

Post winter of '43, there wasn't really anything much else the Wehrmacht could do, given the limitations and circumstances at that time. Even if Kursk and Battle of the Bulge were reversed in the Reich's favor, it would have just only prolonged the war, and mildly, at that.
Proof that Hitler was a meth-head ?
What food shortage ?
The mud is a postwar excuse : the aim of Barbarossa was to defeat the USSR in the Summer .

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hambubger
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by hambubger » 31 Jul 2020 22:07

ljadw wrote:
31 Jul 2020 07:56
hambubger wrote:
30 Jul 2020 04:05
It was the mud that first did the Reich in. When Stalingrad was lost, to put it most succinctly. However, other drivers include:

-Hitler becoming a meth-head
-The US entering the war
-Natural resource needs exceeding their supply, 42-43, and the food shortage was also driven by poor weather at the time

Post winter of '43, there wasn't really anything much else the Wehrmacht could do, given the limitations and circumstances at that time. Even if Kursk and Battle of the Bulge were reversed in the Reich's favor, it would have just only prolonged the war, and mildly, at that.
Proof that Hitler was a meth-head ?
What food shortage ?
The mud is a postwar excuse : the aim of Barbarossa was to defeat the USSR in the Summer .
Proof that Hitler was a meth-head ? http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/jou ... l_care.pdf
What food shortage ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geyvR1mCoOc (Richard Walther Darre got canned for mismanagement). A lot of the farming animals used for labor were eaten post-harvest, so the next harvest wouldn't have the level of labor output to generate proper levels of food.
The mud is a postwar excuse : the aim of Barbarossa was to defeat the USSR in the Summer . Correct. Hence, by not doing so, the mud and following frost put the German military in a position in which they were unable to win.
Last edited by hambubger on 31 Jul 2020 23:57, edited 2 times in total.
"Look, if I had a ticket to Paradise and you didn't have one... I'd tear mine up and I'd go to Hell with you." -Jack Wagner, "Premonition" (1984)

Paul Lakowski
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by Paul Lakowski » 31 Jul 2020 23:19

ljadw wrote:
30 Jul 2020 13:48
Paul Lakowski wrote:
30 Jul 2020 03:29
ljadw wrote:
29 Jul 2020 18:29
Gallup polls are not very serious : they predicted GOP victories in 1936 and 1948 and a Democratic victory in 2016 .

Too Roosevelt GALLUP POLLs allowed him to steer a course through politics and he never went any were with out them. They repeatly told him to avoid war , especially in Europe.

It was critical to America's entry into the war.

Churchill ALMOST had to cave in to the war-cabinet during DUNKIRK and enter peace negotiations through Mussolini in mid 1940. When he turned to Roosevelt for help , he hid behind the legalities of Congressional politics and had to refuse any help to Churchill.
To refuse any help to Churchill? And the Destroyer Deal ?
And The British Purchasing Commission in the USA? There was no German Purchasing Commission .
And Cash and Carry ? Adopted by Congress in November..1939 .
Cash and Carry was restricted to Britain and France .
If you sell war materials to one party and refuse to sell them to the other party,it is obvious that you make a choice .
AT THAT CRITICAL JUNCTURE IN TIME he bowed to congressional rules and refused Churchill , thus painting him into the corner as the WAR Cabinet forced him into peace talks with Herr Hitler.

ljadw
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Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Post by ljadw » 01 Aug 2020 05:37

hambubger wrote:
31 Jul 2020 22:07
ljadw wrote:
31 Jul 2020 07:56
hambubger wrote:
30 Jul 2020 04:05
It was the mud that first did the Reich in. When Stalingrad was lost, to put it most succinctly. However, other drivers include:

-Hitler becoming a meth-head
-The US entering the war
-Natural resource needs exceeding their supply, 42-43, and the food shortage was also driven by poor weather at the time

Post winter of '43, there wasn't really anything much else the Wehrmacht could do, given the limitations and circumstances at that time. Even if Kursk and Battle of the Bulge were reversed in the Reich's favor, it would have just only prolonged the war, and mildly, at that.
Proof that Hitler was a meth-head ?
What food shortage ?
The mud is a postwar excuse : the aim of Barbarossa was to defeat the USSR in the Summer .
Proof that Hitler was a meth-head ? http://www.rcpe.ac.uk/journal/issue/jou ... l_care.pdf
What food shortage ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geyvR1mCoOc (Richard Walther Darre got canned for mismanagement). A lot of the farming animals used for labor were eaten post-harvest, so the next harvest wouldn't have the level of labor output to generate proper levels of food.
The mud is a postwar excuse : the aim of Barbarossa was to defeat the USSR in the Summer . Correct. Hence, by not doing so, the mud and following frost put the German military in a position in which they were unable to win.
1 There was no food shortage in Germany til the end of the war (The Wages of Destruction :P 672 )
2 About Hitler's medical care :
there is NO proof that the medication of Morel affected Hitler's ability to conduct the war .I still have to see the proofs for bad decisions from Hitler which were caused by Morel .
your source is not very serious : the author thinks that Guderian was a prominent nazi and that Speer was the number two of the regime . There was no number two in nazi Germany .Heydrich was not chief of the SS and the chief of the Gestapo was not Himmler, but Müller.
3 The autumn mud ( there was also a spring mud ) and the winter of 1941-1942 did not prevent Germany from defeating the USSR.

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