German estimates of soviet losses ?

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ljadw
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by ljadw » 08 Jul 2017 14:27

For Soviet tanks in 1941, the Germans reported a "Beute "(booty ) of 13405 .Unclear is if Beute includes also destroyed tanks .

For POW in 1941, 3906765, corrected :wink: to 3367206.

German estimation of Soviet dead and wounded are unreliable guesses, as only the Sovjets could know the number of dead and wounded .

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Stiltzkin » 08 Jul 2017 21:35

For Soviet tanks in 1941, the Germans reported a "Beute "(booty ) of 13405 .Unclear is if Beute includes also destroyed tanks .
Well, they lost 20,500 tanks in 1941 to the enemy, many of them overrun, scuttled, abandoned , out of fuel and just knocked out and unable to be recovered so that number can reflect losses.
For POW in 1941, 3906765, corrected :wink: to 3367206.
The official number of PoWs for all pincers during 1941 is 2,256,000 (and 9,336 "beute" tanks), what else is included in the 3 million is unclear and how large the actual margin of error is.
German estimation of Soviet dead and wounded are unreliable guesses, as only the Sovjets could know the number of dead and wounded .
One should never rely on the opponents side on casualty figures but do know that Soviet estimates for 1941 are very imprecise (this is also what Krivosheev pointed out), in fact they are as accurate as German casualty reports past 1944, due to the situation they found themselves in.

However, after studying many casualty reports and intelligence estimates I have come to the conclusion that there are certain interpretations which fit some of the figures. I stopped to be so dismissive towards enemy reports, it certainly gives us insight into their thinking pattern and projection. Human error is usually the main problem, but most people simply do the mistake of not understanding the term casualties (and the term's ambiguities).
Historians and even military personnel are equally guilty of making mistakes.
One example are the summer offensives of 1944, the Soviets estimated German casualties at about 300-400,000 (for the entire front during that period) which is fairly accurate, yet Soviet literature later wrote "380,000 dead", which is simply wrong as casualties are not just dead (not even KIA are classified as just "dead", dead can be fatalities and war dead etc., killed in action are the guys who die on the fronts before evacuation).
Kursk defensive phase estimate was set at 70,000 not that far off from 56,000, but that was in 1943 a much better period for bureaucracy.

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Urmel
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Urmel » 09 Jul 2017 01:33

ljadw wrote:For Soviet tanks in 1941, the Germans reported a "Beute "(booty ) of 13405 .Unclear is if Beute includes also destroyed tanks.
No it doesn't based on what I have seen in North Africa documents, but whether they were really Beute, or misreported, depends on the level of reporting authority.
The enemy had superiority in numbers, his tanks were more heavily armoured, they had larger calibre guns with nearly twice the effective range of ours, and their telescopes were superior. 5 RTR 19/11/41

The CRUSADER Project - The Winter Battle 1941/42

Art
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 09 Jul 2017 10:53

Stiltzkin wrote: The official number of PoWs for all pincers during 1941 is 2,256,000
What is the official number from exactly?

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Stiltzkin » 09 Jul 2017 12:10

What is the official number from exactly?
The figure was from my memory, patched together from Kriegsgefangenenberichte Ic, Gefangene und Beute and OKW Tagebuch I believe. They are of course inaccurate, depends what you include or not. In this case it would be Bialystock + Minsk + Smolensk + Uman + Gomel + Kiev (those were relatively accurate and only marginally off if you exclude the units which managed to flee) + Azov + Vyazma, this is with Nachmeldungen but without corrections I believe. I think what many do is they throw Gomel and Kiev together by counting twice, I have seen this a lot.

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by ljadw » 09 Jul 2017 14:03

The POW figures I have given have as source BA-MA, III W 805/5-7 and are mentioned by Schustereit in Vabanque P 73

The number of captured tanks has the same BA-MA source and is mentioned by Schustereit on P 103 of Vabanque .

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 09 Jul 2017 15:31

I believe the sum by several large pockets is not complete by definition. Many prisoners were captured in other operations that are not listed above. There was apparently a million-scale addition to the large pockets sum, but I'm not ready to discuss its origin. I don't remember seeing any complete breakdown of 3.8-3.9 million figure: where they were captured, when and by whom.

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by ljadw » 09 Jul 2017 18:03

When is mentioned by Schustereit , as the BA-MA figures were chrnologically divided in 10 day periods.
Example : between 22 and 30 june (included ) 112784 POW were declared,for 1 to 10 july :253588.

Discharged, deceased and escaped POWs are included .

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by ljadw » 09 Jul 2017 18:10

More information WAS available on WWII Stats Com,but this site has alas disappeared .

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Michate » 12 Jul 2017 07:39

The archived WW2 stats website is available here: https://web.archive.org/web/20160608141 ... index.html

ljadw
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by ljadw » 12 Jul 2017 10:12

Thank you .

Kelvin
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Kelvin » 27 Aug 2020 14:22

Michate wrote:
12 Jul 2017 07:39
The archived WW2 stats website is available here: https://web.archive.org/web/20160608141 ... index.html
Hi, Michate, that link says 1941 Soviet POW will be reduced 500,000 men because of error reporting, that mean only 2,860,000 Soviet POW captured in 1941 ? Thank

And I doubt that they captured 290,000 Soviet POW in Nov 1941 ? I think that period war is in stalemale.

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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by Art » 27 Aug 2020 20:09

Kelvin wrote:
27 Aug 2020 14:22
Hi, Michate, that link says 1941 Soviet POW will be reduced 500,000 men because of error reporting, that mean only 2,860,000 Soviet POW captured in 1941 ? Thank
The tally for 1941 was reduced from approx. 3,907,000 to 3,367,000.
And I doubt that they captured 290,000 Soviet POW in Nov 1941 ? I think that period war is in stalemale.
Probably reporting lagged behind actual events somewhat. Also Tikhvin, Crimea, Rostov, the final offensive on Moscow. I've already given a link to a POW count of the Army Group Center in another topic:
https://wwii.germandocsinrussia.org/ru/ ... ect/zoom/6
Numbers for the entire Eastern Front in November 1941 were:
1-10.11.41 - 152,295
11-20.11.41 - 85,768
21-30.11.41 - 53,852
which supports a theory about reporting lag.

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 28 Aug 2020 00:53

Michate wrote:
12 Jul 2017 07:39
The archived WW2 stats website is available here: https://web.archive.org/web/20160608141 ... index.html
Thanks. For 1941 the site has only quarterly stats at Ostheer level. Is there anywhere else online (preferably) or in a book that gives the 10-day and AOK/Heeresgruppe stats? Or is the only option a flight to BAMA?
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: German estimates of soviet losses ?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 28 Aug 2020 01:20

Kelvin wrote:
27 Aug 2020 14:22

And I doubt that they captured 290,000 Soviet POW in Nov 1941 ? I think that period war is in stalemale.
We're discussing this topic in another thread. viewtopic.php?f=55&t=249359

Post #68 of that thread cites OKH data for 219k PoW in June/July for AG's N&S, despite the absence of big encirclements on their fronts in those months.

As Art says upthread, ~1mil PoW were taken outside of the big encirclements; over the 5 months of German advance that's ~6.5k "tactical" PoW per day.

November is above that trend at ~9.7k per day, nearly all of which were "tactical" as there weren't any large envelopments in November (the Germans were advancing but slowly - not a stalemate except for AGS but definitely slower going than before).

There are at least two possible explanations for the November uptick in tactical PoW's:

1. As Art says, there may have been a reporting delay of weeks or months. Were that true, however, I'd expect higher numbers for December and January than we see. Likewise it would mean that the high "tactical" PoW numbers seen in June/July outside AGC were actually underestimates. (unless the reporting delay was limited to November '41, which seems unlikely. If such a delay existed it would have been more systemic and wouldn't have appeared only once). Further, it seems that OKH corrected past reporting mistakes (e.g. the 500k subtraction from '41's total). Had it been true that 200k men were taken a month earlier than initially reported, it seems likely the OKH would have noticed the error and corrected the reports. I could see a consistent lag between the actual white flag and the stats - measured in days. But a consistent lag measured in weeks/months seems incongruous with what was happening at the front and the PoW trend peaks roughly in synchrony with the big known PoW-producing battles.

2. Morale was lower in the Red Army in November than during preceding or following periods. The defeat at Viazma caused panic in Moscow; it seems likely that the soldiers were effected as well.
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

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