stg44 wrote: Without Wallied help the Soviets probably would have gassed out in manpower in 1943
Do you have a summary of Soviet recruits from liberated territory? IIRC the re-enlistees alone were 900k per the NKVD (i.e. men who either walked home from the battle or joined the partisans).
OTOH the Soviet 18yo classes were ~2mil.
I don't see the Soviets running out of military-age manpower via casualties. Rather, they'd have started to lose territory again absent W.Allied help, which would cost them population, which means fewer workers, which means fewer weapons, which means you can't have as many in the field.
...which means further territorial losses, which means...
The post-Kursk '43 battles were the real climax of the Eastern Front and were fairly close-run despite the enormous Soviet manpower/equipment edge. If you throw the forces lost at Tunisgrad, the Italian Front forces, and OB West into Ukraine in '43, plus millions of shells fired OTL at W.Allied bombers and thousands of LW planes from the West, it's very easy to see a stalemate east of the Dniepr.
Then by '44 the Germans have converted from air/sea production to land production, actually outnumber the RKKA in tanks and mechanized forces, and start rolling east again.