The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 03:59

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Dec 2020 03:45
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 03:23
yoozername wrote:It lacks a specific date in 1940 on the memo, but I suspect it is the second half of the year.
The date is on the original memo that I posted upthread: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=109591&start=300#p2307440

May 22, 1940.
You may be getting confused. That question was asked by me, not Yoozername. The date of the memo you link to is 28 February 1941, not 22 May 1940, and it is a different memo.

So assuming it is 22 May 1940, then it took six months to get to the end state desired, by adding and training workers at Krupp-Gruson and its sub-component chain, getting raw materials required to them, and increasing energy allocations, not two months posited to train-up skilled workers.
Ach ja. I scrolled back to the last microfilm image I posted, forgetting that I'd posted another. Here's the original doc with the May date: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=109591&start=285#p2306584

Re the six months listed, a couple issues:
  • That assumes the AHA was able immediately to (1) approve WaA's recommendation, (2) locate the required workers, (3) send them to the plants. Most likely mere approval of the recommendation took a while, given that it took WaA a month to respond to AHA's inquiry with its recommendation. The speed of bureaucracy...
  • Production began to tick upwards in June (23 from 20) and reached 30 in August. It declined to 17 in September but was back 30 in October.
    [/quote]

    That's a very quick ramp even without any bureaucratic delay.

    Further, the issue is when and whether more panzers would flow after a decision to produce more. The issue isn't when/whether the full production plan would be met.

    As with all things German production in this period, they likely would not meet planned production. Nonetheless, X% of a higher target yields more tanks than X% of a lower target.
    yoozername wrote:You didn't debate anything. You misunderstand the report, I posted a translation of it, I explained what is actually being discussed; and now you want to ignore the point. OK.
    OK you missed my critique of your simplistic invocation of efficiency as giving a hard limit on panzer production. Good for you. I'm concerned we have a language barrier issue anyway.

    For the gallery, please understand the speciousness of any argument that equates inefficiency of "problems" with an absolute production limit. Even assuming constant (in)efficiency for a given industry, more production will flow from more resources at constant (in)efficiency. And in fact assuming constant (in)efficiency is nearly always wrong when baseline production is low-rate (as for OTL German panzer production) because low-rate production benefits especially from economies of scale.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Yoozername » 12 Dec 2020 04:18

An interesting view of panzer III production. Note the column 'planned'. Note that they actually stopped 'planned' for 37mm in October 40, but accepted 5? Then there are Nov/Dec where they have none planned or accepted? They needed 2 months to switch over to the 50mmL42? Note they are behind the curve most of the way? They catch up at the end of the run in July 40, but they then finish out under? This may be a canceled contract. I am trying to apply what happens in the real world. Not some assumed thoughts about how people think things work.

Now contracts for manufacture can be written in many ways. One can sign a contract for 1000 items, with a clause of monthly ordering. Say 100-200 each month ordered 30 days in advance. This way the vendor can source/out-source materials, schedule work, etc. A customer can have the option to take or leave any over-run.

Once the Panzer III with the 50mmL42 kicks in, the customer should be happy. They are meeting the mark++, The customer is accepting all they make. They actually are handling 50mmL42 and 50mmL60 models at the same time. Also, dropping L42 in May 42, and then doing L60 and 75mmL24 in July 42. There is a stumble towards the very end but I suppose Germany needed every swinging panzer in 43 for Kursk.

Edit; https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/Stat ... onthly.htm
p3pro.jpg
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Yoozername » 12 Dec 2020 04:24

OK you missed my critique of your simplistic invocation of efficiency as giving a hard limit on panzer production. Good for you. I'm concerned we have a language barrier issue anyway.
I think we have a disparity in our experiences. I am an engineer, have worked in design, in military R&D, manufacturing, and writing contracts.

Oh, you are a lawyer. Oh well.

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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 04:31

Yoozername wrote:
12 Dec 2020 04:24
OK you missed my critique of your simplistic invocation of efficiency as giving a hard limit on panzer production. Good for you. I'm concerned we have a language barrier issue anyway.
I think we have a disparity in our experiences. I am an engineer, have worked in design, in military R&D, manufacturing, and writing contracts.

Oh, you are a lawyer. Oh well.
Good for you.

That and ideas that actually make sense will get you somewhere analyzing history.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Yoozername » 12 Dec 2020 04:34

You sound like a 'What-If' veteran. Oh yeah, I am a veteran of the United States Army Engineers.
For the gallery, please understand the speciousness of any argument that equates inefficiency of "problems" with an absolute production limit. Even assuming constant (in)efficiency for a given industry, more production will flow from more resources at constant (in)efficiency. And in fact assuming constant (in)efficiency is nearly always wrong when baseline production is low-rate (as for OTL German panzer production) because low-rate production benefits especially from economies of scale.
More Panzer IVs flowed from more plants. You sound like you are pleading an argument there counselor. Or, actually trying to put words/ideas into other people's arguments?

I am a veteran of the US Army Engineers also. Couple years in the service would do many people some good. Especially the sensitive types.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 04:36

Yoozername wrote:
12 Dec 2020 04:34
Oh yeah, I am a veteran of the United States Army Engineers.
Good for you. That plus ideas that actually make sense will get you somewhere.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 05:19

Yoozername wrote:
12 Dec 2020 04:18
An interesting view of panzer III production. Note the column 'planned'. Note that they actually stopped 'planned' for 37mm in October 40, but accepted 5? Then there are Nov/Dec where they have none planned or accepted? They needed 2 months to switch over to the 50mmL42? Note they are behind the curve most of the way? They catch up at the end of the run in July 40, but they then finish out under? This may be a canceled contract. I am trying to apply what happens in the real world. Not some assumed thoughts about how people think things work.

Now contracts for manufacture can be written in many ways. One can sign a contract for 1000 items, with a clause of monthly ordering. Say 100-200 each month ordered 30 days in advance. This way the vendor can source/out-source materials, schedule work, etc. A customer can have the option to take or leave any over-run.

Once the Panzer III with the 50mmL42 kicks in, the customer should be happy. They are meeting the mark++, The customer is accepting all they make. They actually are handling 50mmL42 and 50mmL60 models at the same time. Also, dropping L42 in May 42, and then doing L60 and 75mmL24 in July 42. There is a stumble towards the very end but I suppose Germany needed every swinging panzer in 43 for Kursk.

Edit; https://www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/Stat ... onthly.htm

p3pro.jpg
A first hint that the chart might have some problems is the implicit notion there was a single "plan" for panzer production. Planned output shifted throughout the war. Planning figures from February 1941, for example, differ materially from those in the quoted chart:

Image

Image
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Richard Anderson » 12 Dec 2020 05:21

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 03:59
Ach ja. I scrolled back to the last microfilm image I posted, forgetting that I'd posted another. Here's the original doc with the May date: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=109591&start=285#p2306584
Okay, thanks.
Re the six months listed, a couple issues:
  • That assumes the AHA was able immediately to (1) approve WaA's recommendation, (2) locate the required workers, (3) send them to the plants. Most likely mere approval of the recommendation took a while, given that it took WaA a month to respond to AHA's inquiry with its recommendation. The speed of bureaucracy...
  • Production began to tick upwards in June (23 from 20) and reached 30 in August. It declined to 17 in September but was back 30 in October.
That hanging [/quote] tag confuses me as to who said that, so I am replying to the wrong person, sorry in advance.

It is interesting to note what those recommendations were:

The reassignment back to industry of the personnel drafted in the previous order of 4 April, which was to fill out A.K.P. 531. That is Armee-Kraftfahr-Park 531., which was an army-level vehicle repair and maintenance organization. In other words, they were drafting skilled works from the production line so they could put them into the army to maintain the vehicles they were no longer on the production line building.

It's back to the problems I mentioned before, over-mobilization of manpower and uneven granting of exemptions for UK-Gestellte, which was the next recommendation...clear up the UK problem. Good trick, since they struggled with the problem throughout the war.

So, they were drafting skilled personnel willy-nilly, then releasing them back to industry, and then sending them back to the troops again. Rinse and repeat. It isn't hard to imagine the effect that had on production line efficiency.

BTW, production began to tick upwards in June, partly because it had ticked down from January, which was a tick up from the previous down-tick. Sort of a see-saw. Look at the six-month rolling averages.
That's a very quick ramp even without any bureaucratic delay.
Yep, ramping up and down without delay.
Further, the issue is when and whether more panzers would flow after a decision to produce more. The issue isn't when/whether the full production plan would be met.
That my be your issue, but my issue is that they hadn't achieved their initial contractual goals yet, let alone contracted for more. This document is addressing why the tanks already ordered weren't be delivered and how the various problems could be solved to get them delivered. Why would they order more when it was already clear they had a problem just getting what was already ordered delivered?

Yes, the Germans were very good at planning production goals, witness the continually revised BdL production plans. However, they were very poor at meeting those goals, no matter how many times they revised them.
As with all things German production in this period, they likely would not meet planned production. Nonetheless, X% of a higher target yields more tanks than X% of a lower target.
Pretty much production planning throughout, not just in this period. Anyway, it's great theoretically, but practically it didn't seem to work that way.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Richard Anderson » 12 Dec 2020 05:33

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:19
A first hint that the chart might have some problems is the implicit notion there was a single "plan" for panzer production. Planned output shifted throughout the war. Planning figures from February 1941, for example, differ materially from those in the quoted chart:
Looking for straw men again? That may be your "implicit notion", but I doubt it is anyone else's? The prewar production plan was revised in August 1940. Then revised again any number of times to account for new designs, new manufacturers, and new requirements.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 05:37

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:33
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:19
A first hint that the chart might have some problems is the implicit notion there was a single "plan" for panzer production. Planned output shifted throughout the war. Planning figures from February 1941, for example, differ materially from those in the quoted chart:
Looking for straw men again? That may be your "implicit notion", but I doubt it is anyone else's? The prewar production plan was revised in August 1940. Then revised again any number of times to account for new designs, new manufacturers, and new requirements.
Ok that still implies a requirement for more than one column for panzer production plans. There's only one column in the source. The source is contradicted by the WaA document I posted.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Richard Anderson » 12 Dec 2020 05:41

I sometimes wonder if so many StuG were produced simply because it was the only type that consistently met or exceeded its production goals.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Richard Anderson » 12 Dec 2020 05:46

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:37
Ok that still implies a requirement for more than one column for panzer production plans. There's only one column in the source. The source is contradicted by the WaA document I posted.
You need to look again, a bit more closely. Sadly, the planned monthly production goals for the Panzer IV are unknown, but look at the Panzer III. Compare it with the Heeres-Waffen-Amt table you posted. They match through July, then the plan is revised upwards, which would not be reflected in the March Heeres-Waffen-Amt table. There is no contradiction.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Yoozername » 12 Dec 2020 05:49

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:33
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:19
A first hint that the chart might have some problems is the implicit notion there was a single "plan" for panzer production. Planned output shifted throughout the war. Planning figures from February 1941, for example, differ materially from those in the quoted chart:
Looking for straw men again? That may be your "implicit notion", but I doubt it is anyone else's? The prewar production plan was revised in August 1940. Then revised again any number of times to account for new designs, new manufacturers, and new requirements.
And I suppose contracts were handed out, amended, and either they met, exceeded or missed the contracted amounts.

I have a lawyer. he writes my contracts.

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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by Yoozername » 12 Dec 2020 05:51

Richard Anderson wrote:
12 Dec 2020 05:41
I sometimes wonder if so many StuG were produced simply because it was the only type that consistently met or exceeded its production goals.
LOL! Maybe they were just Panzer III 'swarf' in that the turret metalwork made bad circles? "Hey! get that thing outa here and send it to the sturmers.

It IS interesting that Hitler recognized the value of the assault guns in the midst of the debacle of Barbarossa. He left out the Panzer 38 (t)... Clearly no one was cancelling the Panzer III though.
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Re: The Germans increase Panzer production in the Summer of 1940

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 12 Dec 2020 05:51

Richard Anderson wrote:So, they were drafting skilled personnel willy-nilly, then releasing them back to industry, and then sending them back to the troops again. Rinse and repeat. It isn't hard to imagine the effect that had on production line efficiency.
No disagreement here, German production was riddled with bureaucratic inefficiency. At base something like the "steel inflation" problem ruled in every production domain: The broad armaments program had requirements for labor, steel, etc. that were impossible to meet for each aspect of it.
Richard Anderson wrote:Why would they order more when it was already clear they had a problem just getting what was already ordered delivered?
Richard Anderson wrote:Pretty much production planning throughout
The key is to recognize both that German production was not rationally planned but also that the Germans were not exceptionally stupid. They're basically like everyone else (which has extra-topic implications for moral vigilance and anti-fascism but I won't digress...).

Because they're not exceptionally stupid, they realized that their planning was a mess and that even the remote possibly of attaining production goals required extra-top-superior-special-extraordinary priority. Special extraordinary priority was, in the inflationary atmosphere, as good as being ignored (I'm substituting the historical priority terms, as I can't recall them offhand).

For example, GSWW v.5/1 has the following on page 655:

the ordnance departments had come to terms with the inflation of ‘iron vouchers’,
priorities, quotas, etc., ... the Wehrmacht High Command ultimately
lived by keeping that inflation of papers and instructions going.
So the simple answer to "why order more" when current orders were unmet is that everyone realized that the relationship between orders and production had broken down; everything depended on post-order allocations of resources.

A German army and/or Hitler who wanted more tanks would know that to get more tanks would require more resource allocations to tank production.
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