If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targets?

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If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targets?

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2021 02:00

If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist (or some other kind of right-wing dictatorship), which are the most likely expansion targets for Russia?

Here's how I personally try to visualize the situation:

-Expansion into Finland is going to be difficult since the Finns are going to be capable of standing and defending their ground, though whether Russia will actually be aware of this ahead of time will be an open question.
-Expansion into the Baltic countries is likely to provoke a war with Poland and with Poland's ally Romania, which could be winnable for Russia but which nevertheless could involve a lot of effort. German neutrality would at the very least be required--though even then there could be the possibility of France and/or Britain sending their own troops into these countries to protect them from Soviet aggression. What would really seal the deal for Russia would be a joint German-Russian attack on Poland (and perhaps on Lithuania as well, since Germany might still want the Memelland), but this would be highly risky for any non-Nazi German regime since they are unlikely to actually want war with Britain and France, which is what this might very well result in.
-Expansion into Poland (the Kresy) and Romania (Bessarabia and northern Bukovina) has the same issues as expansion into the Baltic countries has.
-Expansion into Turkey could also provoke the Anglo-French, and there wouldn't really be a good casus belli since the Turks would have already committed ethnic cleansing and genocide and thus would have solidly Turkified eastern Anatolia by the 1930s or 1940s or wherever Russia is actually willing to go to war. Plus, it might be rather strange for a Russian nationalist regime to care too much about the well-being of Caucasian peoples, who after all are not Slavs and are not Eastern Orthodox (other than the Georgians).
-Expansion into Persia/Iran and/or Afghanistan might very well draw British ire and possibly even result in a war with Britain since such a Russian move could be viewed as endangering British India's security. Russia could aim to achieve more limited gains/conquests--for instance, only annexing northern Iran and/or northern Afghanistan--but then it could simply pull the rest of these countries into the British orbit and Russia wouldn't really have much to gain from such a move given the lack of arable land in these territories.
-Expansion into China and Mongolia could be viewed as being more realistic. Britain and France are unlikely to militarily intervene in response to such a Russian move and Russia might have a decent chance of defeating Japan in a new war over the fate of China. This would allow Russia to conquer Xinjiang, Outer Mongolia, maybe Inner Mongolia, and Manchuria. Out of all of these territories, Manchuria has a lot of arable land and thus might be receptive to large-scale Russian and Slavic settlement--Russian Lebensraum, if you will. As for the rest of these territories, I know that Xinjiang has a lot of natural resources, so this could certainly be of use to Russia. I do think that a Russian conquest of Tibet might be going too far since such a Russian move might trigger a declaration of war on Russia by Britain due to Britain perceiving such a Russian move as a threat to British India's security--and let's face it, British India is located right across the Himalayas from Tibet, specifically right to Tibet's south.

Anyway, what do you personally think about all of this?

Also, for what it's worth, here is a soil quality map of the world for you, in case that you think that this is relevant to this discussion:

http://enfo.agt.bme.hu/drupal/sites/def ... C3%A9g.jpg

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 05 Jan 2021 03:22

I don't think they're going anywhere because no matter who wins, the country is going to be in rebuilding mode -- just as it was under the Bolsheviks.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 05 Jan 2021 04:21

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
05 Jan 2021 03:22
I don't think they're going anywhere because no matter who wins, the country is going to be in rebuilding mode -- just as it was under the Bolsheviks.
I meant in the long(er)-run here. So, 1939 and beyond. Possibly in the 1940s, 1950s, or even beyond that so long as nobody actually develops nukes by that point in time.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 06 Jan 2021 01:25

Futurist wrote:
05 Jan 2021 04:21
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
05 Jan 2021 03:22
I don't think they're going anywhere because no matter who wins, the country is going to be in rebuilding mode -- just as it was under the Bolsheviks.
I meant in the long(er)-run here. So, 1939 and beyond. Possibly in the 1940s, 1950s, or even beyond that so long as nobody actually develops nukes by that point in time.
I think over that time frame a renewed push to the Bosporus could be in the cards. But if the time-scale is that long, then we have to wonder about their involvement in WWII, and that'd be a head-cruncher to me. I'm not sure Hitler would spare them for being Fascist, given his racial views of Slavs. Major involvement in WWII would work against an expansionist Russian foreign policy under those circumstances.

As an aside, I think nukes would have happened no matter who ruled Russia in the time-frame of your WI.

I doubt the Fascist regime would industrialize as quickly as the Soviet regime did OTL (unless WWII involvement spurred it, of course), not because of economics but because I don't think a Fascist would tried rule-by-terror to the extent Stalin did, and would not have the pool of cheap labor that terror provided.

Those are both just guesses, though, and I'm no expert by a long shot.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2021 01:28

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:25
Futurist wrote:
05 Jan 2021 04:21
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
05 Jan 2021 03:22
I don't think they're going anywhere because no matter who wins, the country is going to be in rebuilding mode -- just as it was under the Bolsheviks.
I meant in the long(er)-run here. So, 1939 and beyond. Possibly in the 1940s, 1950s, or even beyond that so long as nobody actually develops nukes by that point in time.
I think over that time frame a renewed push to the Bosporus could be in the cards. But if the time-scale is that long, then we have to wonder about their involvement in WWII, and that'd be a head-cruncher to me. I'm not sure Hitler would spare them for being Fascist, given his racial views of Slavs. Major involvement in WWII would work against an expansionist Russian foreign policy under those circumstances.

As an aside, I think nukes would have happened no matter who ruled Russia in the time-frame of your WI.

I doubt the Fascist regime would industrialize as quickly as the Soviet regime did OTL (unless WWII involvement spurred it, of course), not because of economics but because I don't think a Fascist would tried rule-by-terror to the extent Stalin did, and would not have the pool of cheap labor that terror provided.

Those are both just guesses, though, and I'm no expert by a long shot.
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Thumpalumpacus » 06 Jan 2021 02:08

Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:28
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.
Perhaps, but Hitler had more talking-points than just the Reds. Railing against Versailles and the following ten years may have stood him in good stead in his rise as well, I think. The Depression was going to happen no matter who ruled Russia. He used that as well as "November criminals" to ease his rise to power.

Hard to say whether or not those appeals could carry the day, but it seems pretty possible to me.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 06 Jan 2021 02:40

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
06 Jan 2021 02:08
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:28
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.
Perhaps, but Hitler had more talking-points than just the Reds. Railing against Versailles and the following ten years may have stood him in good stead in his rise as well, I think. The Depression was going to happen no matter who ruled Russia. He used that as well as "November criminals" to ease his rise to power.

Hard to say whether or not those appeals could carry the day, but it seems pretty possible to me.
Well, if they do, they will certainly affect Russia's foreign policy calculations. Though I suspect that a Fascist Russia would not approve of Hitler picking on a fellow Slav state such as Czechoslovakia.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by nuyt » 11 Jan 2021 16:00

Some points:
- where do the Bolsheviks go in this scenario? Ok, they are beaten by the Whites, but they were internationalists, so they regroup somewhere else. My bet would be on Germany and a communist revolt succeeds in that country, while Russia turns right.
- if they are beaten for good (I would not count on it) and do not take over a country, that means alarm bells all over the world will remain silent and there is no Red Scare....
- if the Whites win, where will the borders be of the Russian New State? Exactly like the newborn SU IRL? Including Ukraine? Are the leaders Russian nationalists or Slav nationalists, ergo do Ukrainians join in or fight to the death against the Russians? When is the Civil War over?
- if the Russian New State is tolerant, they might get millions of other immigrants from the rest of Europe (especially disenfranchised rightwingers and nobility from Germany) to help settle the east and newly acquired Chinese borderlands. A frustrated artist from Vienna takes a train east.... With this mighty combination of former fighters from both Russia and Germany the Russian New State will even start thinking about Alaska. After all its mission in its startup phase is to recover lost lands...as per the map below.
- the new leadership will no doubt be especially anti-Japanese and will seek to redress the losses in the East.
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 11 Jan 2021 19:04

Thumpalumpacus wrote:
06 Jan 2021 02:08
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:28
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.
Perhaps, but Hitler had more talking-points than just the Reds. Railing against Versailles and the following ten years may have stood him in good stead in his rise as well, I think. The Depression was going to happen no matter who ruled Russia. He used that as well as "November criminals" to ease his rise to power.

Hard to say whether or not those appeals could carry the day, but it seems pretty possible to me.
That & the racial line. Folks tend to forget that was at the core of Hitlers belief system, and a important leg of his Deutschland uber Alles line. Its also forgotten he drew in a lot of party members & followers with the working mans socialist benefits appeal. So, instead of Jews corrupting Bolshevik socialism & ruling the racially inferior Slav, it would be Jews corrupting the Eastern Facist parties and ruling the racially inferior Slavs.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 11 Jan 2021 19:57

nuyt wrote:
11 Jan 2021 16:00
Some points:
- where do the Bolsheviks go in this scenario? Ok, they are beaten by the Whites, but they were internationalists, so they regroup somewhere else. My bet would be on Germany and a communist revolt succeeds in that country, while Russia turns right.
- if they are beaten for good (I would not count on it) and do not take over a country, that means alarm bells all over the world will remain silent and there is no Red Scare....
- if the Whites win, where will the borders be of the Russian New State? Exactly like the newborn SU IRL? Including Ukraine? Are the leaders Russian nationalists or Slav nationalists, ergo do Ukrainians join in or fight to the death against the Russians? When is the Civil War over?
- if the Russian New State is tolerant, they might get millions of other immigrants from the rest of Europe (especially disenfranchised rightwingers and nobility from Germany) to help settle the east and newly acquired Chinese borderlands. A frustrated artist from Vienna takes a train east.... With this mighty combination of former fighters from both Russia and Germany the Russian New State will even start thinking about Alaska. After all its mission in its startup phase is to recover lost lands...as per the map below.
- the new leadership will no doubt be especially anti-Japanese and will seek to redress the losses in the East.
1. I don't think that the Anglo-French would actually allow a Communist revolt to succeed in Germany (and neither would the Poles).
2. The Bolsheviks' actions and terror during the Russian Civil War would still be enough for a Red Scare even if they will ultimately lose the Russian Civil War. Hungary's Communists lost their war in 1919-1920 but Hungary's population was still sufficiently scared of Communism for a very long time.
3. You can decide what the borders of the new Russian state will be, but Yes, it will likely include Ukraine. The leaders of Russia will be Russian nationalists but they will consider both Ukrainians and Belarusians to be Russians. The Russian Civil War still ends in the early 1920s in this scenario.
4. I don't think that Germany would have actually experienced a Communist Revolution in this scenario, though. But a Russian Hitler certainly sounds interesting!
5. So, a second Russo-Japanese War against the Japanese "savage Asiatic hordes", with the Japanese playing the same role in Fascist Russian propaganda as Eastern Slavs played in Nazi German propaganda?

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 11 Jan 2021 19:58

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
11 Jan 2021 19:04
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
06 Jan 2021 02:08
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:28
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.
Perhaps, but Hitler had more talking-points than just the Reds. Railing against Versailles and the following ten years may have stood him in good stead in his rise as well, I think. The Depression was going to happen no matter who ruled Russia. He used that as well as "November criminals" to ease his rise to power.

Hard to say whether or not those appeals could carry the day, but it seems pretty possible to me.
That & the racial line. Folks tend to forget that was at the core of Hitlers belief system, and a important leg of his Deutschland uber Alles line. Its also forgotten he drew in a lot of party members & followers with the working mans socialist benefits appeal. So, instead of Jews corrupting Bolshevik socialism & ruling the racially inferior Slav, it would be Jews corrupting the Eastern Facist parties and ruling the racially inferior Slavs.
That would be assuming that Russian Fascists would actually be welcoming towards Jews like Italian Fascists were--and they might very well NOT be!

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by nuyt » 11 Jan 2021 22:09

I'd say this fascist Russian/Ukrainian Empire has a couple of arch enemies: Poland, because several million of Belarusians and Ukrainians have ended up at the wrong side of the border and Japan, that needs a lesson. I would also say the borders of the new state roughly follow the area where Slavs (plus Wolga Germans) and including at least the whole of Kazachstan (for strategic depth and the Russians around Tashkent). Not the areas south of the Caucasus, nor the other stans further south.
Check out the ethnic maps of SU in 1941 (could not find one of around 1920). You see why you need the Ukrainians in on this one.
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Futurist » 11 Jan 2021 22:34

Ukraine is important due to it being Russia's breadbasket and containing a lot of Russia's industries.

As for the Caucasus, Russia needs Baku due to its huge and vast oil reserves.

Other than Poland and Japan, will this Fascist Russia have any additional targets?
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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 12 Jan 2021 01:43

Futurist wrote:
11 Jan 2021 22:34
...
Other than Poland and Japan, will this Fascist Russia have any additional targets?
They can return to dueling with the Brits over influence in Persia & Afghanistan. Add the fragments of the former Ottoman empire to that list.

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Re: If the Whites win the Russian Civil War & Russia subsequently goes Fascist, which are its most likely expansion targ

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 12 Jan 2021 01:56

Futurist wrote:
11 Jan 2021 19:58
Carl Schwamberger wrote:
11 Jan 2021 19:04
Thumpalumpacus wrote:
06 Jan 2021 02:08
Futurist wrote:
06 Jan 2021 01:28
FWIW, I'm not sure that Hitler and the Nazis ever actually come to power in Germany if Communists aren't already in power in Russia.
Perhaps, but Hitler had more talking-points than just the Reds. Railing against Versailles and the following ten years may have stood him in good stead in his rise as well, I think. The Depression was going to happen no matter who ruled Russia. He used that as well as "November criminals" to ease his rise to power.

Hard to say whether or not those appeals could carry the day, but it seems pretty possible to me.
That & the racial line. Folks tend to forget that was at the core of Hitlers belief system, and a important leg of his Deutschland uber Alles line. Its also forgotten he drew in a lot of party members & followers with the working mans socialist benefits appeal. So, instead of Jews corrupting Bolshevik socialism & ruling the racially inferior Slav, it would be Jews corrupting the Eastern Facist parties and ruling the racially inferior Slavs.
That would be assuming that Russian Fascists would actually be welcoming towards Jews like Italian Fascists were--and they might very well NOT be!
Doesn't matter. Jewish dominated Bolsheviks were a fiction a lot of people believed, some still believe for that matter. Jews were not welcome in many places, but the presence of a few educated, powerful, or wealthy ones was evidence enough for the nazi party propaganda hacks. The US was controlled by Jews as well according to the nazis & other antisemites.

In any case Hitlers initial promise was to remove Jews from power in Germany. That what got him the antisemite vote there.

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