Leningrad 1941: Germans Attack Osinovets Instead of Tikhvin

[historygeek2021]

100 km deep is a toehold?

Why don't you give figures to back up your claim that the amount the Soviet Union harvested from the Kuban in 1943 could not have been compensated by lend-lease food deliveries?

[Lars]

In terms of agricultural products, yes. The Kuban bridgehead wasn't that wide and most of the north was swamp.

Read more here if you please:

https://www.amazon.com/Kuban-1943-Wehrm ... B077KYVS2V

[Lars]

Remember that Kuban is a river and is not the area at the Lake of Azov. That is more like the Kuban Delta. More on the long Kuban River here.:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_(river)

[historygeek2021]

In terms of agricultural products, yes. The Kuban bridgehead wasn't that wide and most of the north was swamp.

Read more here if you please:

https://www.amazon.com/Kuban-1943-Wehrm ... B077KYVS2V

You could just give us the data from the book concerning food harvested from the Kuban in 1943, and compare it with U.S. lendlease deliveries, if it's even in there ...

[Konig_pilsner]

You guys bickering over nothing is destroying this thread ill post something Pintere when I have some time.

[historygeek2021]

If people are going to make bombastic claims about the Soviet Union being "starved into submission in 1943", they need to back it up.

[pintere]

Taking Volkhov was enough to cut the railroad to Leningrad. Leningrad would be out of supply. The city would fall during the winter 1941/42. Volkhov was doable.

I had thought of that possibility, and while the Germans certainly could've taken Volkhov the question is whether they could've held it against the Soviet reinforcements in the winter of 1941/42. Capturing Osinovets wouldn't have run into the same issue, forcing the Soviet reinforcements to attack the historic positions along the Volkhov that would've had much more time to prepare without any sally to Tikhvin.

[pintere]

Looking at the map this sure looks like the better option, but the question on my mind is; "mit vas?" will the attack be made with, and when?

One Panzer Division is shown being available, but until when?

I estimate the Germans would've been able to muster roughly 10 divisions for the attack against Osinovets (listed in the OP) in addition to several extra infantry battalions of high combat value.

[AnchorSteam]

Looking at the map this sure looks like the better option, but the question on my mind is; "mit vas?" will the attack be made with, and when?

One Panzer Division is shown being available, but until when?

I estimate the Germans would've been able to muster roughly 10 divisions for the attack against Osinovets (listed in the OP) in addition to several extra infantry battalions of high combat value.

That would sure do it!
But, that's all of one Army and part of another, and AGN only had the two at that point. What about counter-attacks?

You guys bickering over nothing is destroying this thread ill post something Pintere when I have some time.

Yeah, that's pretty much what happens every damn time.
Sad, isn't it?

[Lars]

Apologies to all for defending the viewpoint that Kuban was an important agricultural region for the Soviet Union.

[pintere]

That would sure do it!
But, that's all of one Army and part of another, and AGN only had the two at that point. What about counter-attacks?

Not necessarily. Here's a screenshot from the 16.10.1941 OKH situation map that shows the disposition of German divisions around Leningrad.

As you can see, at this time the Germans had 10 divisions around Leningrad and Oranienbaum (217., 93., 291., 58., 269., SS-Pol., 121., 122.. 96. & 212. IDs) as well as 10 further divisions along the Volkhov (227., 254., 11., 21., 126. & 250. IDs as well as 18. & 20. IDs (mot) and 12. & 8 PDs). Note that most of XXXIX. Armeekorps (mot) was in reserve at this stage. To these two totals can be added several additional battalions as well as SS-Brigade 2 and 207. Sicherungs-Division.

The way I see it, the Germans could've contained the Oranienbaum pocket with 2 divisions (as per the historical Nordlicht plan) whilst sending 212. & either 93. or 291. IDs to help hold the Volkhov front. This would mean the Germans would be able to hold the Volkhov front with 8 divisions while using the 10 described in the OP for the push against Osinovets. As this theoretical operation would be taking place in the second half of October - November 1941, a time when most Soviet reserves were being thrown into the fighting around Moscow, I see no reason why the Volkhov front couldn't be temporarily held with 8 divisions (especially if they could use the opportunity to dig in). If the Osinovets operation succeeds in this timeframe then the Germans would then of course be able to use some of their freed up divisions to hold the Volkhov line in proper strength.

[AnchorSteam]

I know it is unlikely, but you have to plan for at least the same enemy forces and attacks that were made historically ... and the map also shows 8 Red Army divisions (?) and a Tank Brigade south of the lake. The obvious move would be an attack towards Schusselberg in conjunction with a break-out from the city.
The Reds were not very good at that sort of thing in 1941, but they will still try.

[Konig_pilsner]

Hey Pintere,

Attacking Osinovets is an uninspiring plan that would be perfect for an uninspiring commander like Von Lieb. I agree with you that most likely it was attainable, and the only threat would be from the 54th Army at Volkhov. Considering the Germans were able to stop Russian counterattacks on their way to Tikhvin, I see no reason why they couldn't do the same in your scenario closer to their supply lines.

The result would be many more civilian deaths, but I doubt the city would surrender. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Volkhov river, the 54th, 52nd, and 4th Armies would be building up for an eventual assault on the 18th army.

Tikhvin was part of Typhoon. 8th PZ and 18 motorized were intended to go to the Valdai Hills, while 12th PZ and 20th motorized went to Tikhvin. Obviously, that didn't work out, but it shows the scheme was pretty bold. Had the Wehrmacht planned to dig in for the winter before or after Vyasma perhaps your plan would have sufficed. As it was though the final attack on Moscow was occurring and Von Lieb wasn't going to be allowed to just play it safe.

I think BDV made a thread about instead of focusing on Tikhvin, the 18th Army should have tried to encircle the 54th Army. To me, that was the best approach, since it wouldn't stretch the Germans too thin and it would destroy the 54th and decimate the 4th. Even with reinforcements during the winter I doubt the Northwest front would be strong enough to push the Germans back over the Volkhov river and might have even affected Russian operations at Demyansk.

Cheers,
KP

[Lars]

Damn it pintere. You made me buy Robert Forczyk's "Leningrad 1941-44" simply because of the map you showed us. It is the best presentation I've seen on the plans for a 1942 attack on Leningrad.

[pintere]

Damn it pintere. You made me buy Robert Forczyk's "Leningrad 1941-44" simply because of the map you showed us. It is the best presentation I've seen on the plans for a 1942 attack on Leningrad.

Well for all the flaws of the Osprey books, one can’t deny they tend to have impressive graphics