WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Tom from Cornwall
Member
Posts: 3169
Joined: 01 May 2006 19:52
Location: UK

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 16 Mar 2021 18:30

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
16 Mar 2021 12:22
War weariness in Britain would increase, building pressure to end an unwinnable war going into 1944, when a much larger and longer V-weapons offensive could render London practically uninhabitable.
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
I see you both assume the USA and Britain would have a choice on whether to continue the war in this scenario.

Given Germany’s much stronger position in this scenario can either of you explain why Hitler would not press on with the war? In his “Second Book”, Hitler warned about the “threatened global hegemony of the North American continent” - your scenario gives him a clear chance to achieve global hegemony for a Greater German Nazi state in his own life time. Given further proof of his status as “the greatest warlord of all time” wouldn’t he have wanted to crush Britain entirely, share out the spoils of her empire and then try to bring the encircling “Anglo-Saxon Jewish conspiracy” (or some other similar bonkers ideological title) to final defeat? If “victory disease” was evident after the defeat of France in 1940, how much greater would it have been after a successful campaign against the great Bolshevik enemy in the east?

Regards

Tom

Politician01
Member
Posts: 441
Joined: 02 Sep 2011 06:56

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by Politician01 » 16 Mar 2021 20:04

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
16 Mar 2021 18:30
In his “Second Book”, Hitler warned about the “threatened global hegemony of the North American continent” - your scenario gives him a clear chance to achieve global hegemony for a Greater German Nazi state in his own life time.
In his Second Book he also proposes the importance of an Anglo-German Alliance.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:
16 Mar 2021 18:30
If “victory disease” was evident after the defeat of France in 1940, how much greater would it have been after a successful campaign against the great Bolshevik enemy in the east?
In July 1940 he offered the British a negotiated peace - why should he not do so again in 1943?
Tom from Cornwall wrote:
16 Mar 2021 18:30
I see you both assume the USA and Britain would have a choice on whether to continue the war in this scenario.Given Germany’s much stronger position in this scenario can either of you explain why Hitler would not press on with the war?
Hitlers goals were in the East and autarky - with them achieved why should he continue the war? He knows that he does not have a fleet to challange the Wallied powers in the next 10 to 15 years and he is an Anglophile who wants to keep the British Empire. The moment Churchill would step down/be removed from office and replaced by Lloyd George or Halifax or whoever would be willing to strike a deal - he would take it.

So the question is - how do the Wallies rally their populations to fight a war against a continental power that just defeated two of the greatest Land Armies in the World within 3 years - and offers negotiations? One thing is fore sure - the war would become less and less popular in the UK and US. So even if Roosevelt wins in 1944 - the question remains what Truman would do from April 1945 onwards.

Tom from Cornwall
Member
Posts: 3169
Joined: 01 May 2006 19:52
Location: UK

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 16 Mar 2021 20:14

Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
In July 1940 he offered the British a negotiated peace - why should he not do so again in 1943?
Oh, I don't know - maybe your right; although maybe he thought after the defeat of the SU he would just be able to take the juiciest morsels from the British Empire. How can we know?
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
Hitlers goals were in the East and autarky - with them achieved why should he continue the war?


What was the purpose of that autarky though? Why did he want to provide Nazi Germany with millions of slaves and enough oil to service a vast military force - if he just wanted to power a few more Nuremberg rallies he wouldn't need to secure the resources of a world hegemon would he?
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
He knows that he does not have a fleet to challange the Wallied powers in the next 10 to 15 years
But can starve Britain into surrender without a surface fleet...
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
The moment Churchill would step down/be removed from office and replaced by Lloyd George or Halifax or whoever would be willing to strike a deal - he would take it.
In your opinion?
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
So the question is - how do the Wallies rally their populations to fight a war against a continental power that just defeated two of the greatest Land Armies in the World within 3 years - and offers negotiations?
Fear?

You are obviously stuck in your mindset, and awfully defensive about it. I'm terribly sorry to have bothered to point out that it is perhaps flawed in its certainty.

Regards

Tom

Michael Kenny
Member
Posts: 8220
Joined: 07 May 2002 19:40
Location: Teesside

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by Michael Kenny » 16 Mar 2021 20:39

Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04


So the question is - how do the Wallies rally their populations to fight a war against a continental power that just defeated two of the greatest Land Armies in the World within 3 years - and offers negotiations? One thing is fore sure - the war would become less and less popular in the UK and US. So even if Roosevelt wins in 1944 - the question remains what Truman would do from April 1945 onwards.
Whilst they have their Navies there is absolutely zero chance they can be directly attacked directly by Hitler. It would take an awful lot of handwavium to construct an alternate timeline where Germany (even including Italy & Japan) has a navy big enough to overcome the combined Commonwealth/USA naval power.
Chamberlain thought he could deal with Hitler and was not frightened of appearing weak/giving in if he thought he could prevent a war but in the end even he realised you can not rely on any deal with Hitler-he was always going to break his word. When people who think like Chamberlain give up and accept war is inevitable then the only politicians left who would 'deal' with Hitler were far-right like-minded ones and they had no great popular support. I see no possible way public opinion would force a capitulation.

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 641
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Australia

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by historygeek2021 » 16 Mar 2021 22:10

Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 20:04
One thing is fore sure - the war would become less and less popular in the UK and US.
How exactly is this for sure? When did the Allies ever come close to capitulating in the OTL? Why would they suddenly become pacifists just because Adolf Hitler conquered the Soviet Union and now has even more power at his disposal?

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 03:10

KDF33 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 09:54
daveshoup2MD wrote:
16 Mar 2021 09:22
These are the same Axis who were throwing the Italian, Romanian, and Hungarian armies into the fray on the Eastern Front in 1942, correct?
Well, Italy, Romania and Hungary were all part of the Axis, so its a bit odd to claim the "Axis" was throwing "them" in the fray. But I guess you really meant "Germany" was.

Besides, Italy, Romania and Hungary provided between them ~800,000 ground troops to the Eastern Front in the fall of 1942. That was a significant and valuable commitment to the war effort, and I don't see why their deployment is an argument against the possibility of Soviet defeat.
No, simply that the Axis (Powers, including the three minor powers mentioned above) were essential to even hold the line in the east in 1942 (when the USSR is supposed to collapse), given the German losses and the brilliant offensive strategy of constantly widening the (north-south) front at the same time the theater was a constantly lengthening (east-west). The reality the Germans had mounted simultaneous offensives in three (sub) theaters in the east in 1941 and were reduced to (maybe) 1.5 equivalents in 1942 sort of suggests the trend. The reality they were down to less than 1 in 1943 illustrates it quite clearly.

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 03:15

Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
Um, yeah ... mmmkay.

How many Americans who were of age in 1941 have you ever spoken with?

History Learner
Member
Posts: 433
Joined: 19 Jan 2019 09:39
Location: United States

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by History Learner » 17 Mar 2021 03:52

daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:15
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
Um, yeah ... mmmkay.

How many Americans who were of age in 1941 have you ever spoken with?
Worth noting that, IOTL, support for a peace deal shot up to 40% at several points and this was with the OTL situation:

Image

See American Popular Opinion and the War Against Germany: The Issue of Negotiated Peace, 1942 by Richard W. Steele,The Journal of American History , Dec., 1978, Vol. 65, No. 3 (Dec., 1978), pp. 704-723:
The coming of war to America changed but did not destroy the peace issue. Many of those who had stubbornly resisted involvement now hoped to terminate it as quickly as possible, and apparently only a lack of organization significantly differentiated sentiment for a negotiated peace from the isolationism of 1941. Moreover, as the President quickly learned, the leadership for an effective negotiated peace movement seemed likely to emerge from the die-hard remnants of the America First Committee, particularly in the person of the isolationist national hero, Charles A. Lindbergh.​

America First officially disbanded in February, and many of its officials announced their support for the war effort. Nevertheless, the activities of some members, including Lindbergh, remained the subject of government interest and concern. In mid-February Federal Bureau of Investigation Director J. Edgar Hoover informed the President that former members of the Committee had "gone underground" and were "biding their time," awaiting the opportunity to emerge again as a "political force." Hoover cited as evidence a mid-December meeting at which the renowned flyer had allegedly held forth on the yellow and Bolshevik menaces, on the foolishness of the current war in Europe, and on what might be done to reverse American policy. ​

According to Hoover's informant, Lindbergh declared that "when the American people, by reason of the lists of the missing and the statements of war losses, realize that they have been betrayed by the British and the Administration," the Committee should be ready to "advocate a negotiated peace." Hoover also noted that he had obtained information from other sources to the effect that the America Firsters had a "secret mailing list of 8,476,000"; that lately a "great many individuals among foreign speaking groups have been circularized"; and that the leaders of the underground organization planned to hold a "series of house parties . .. to keep alive contacts."34​
Further:
Nevertheless, the President could not rest easy, for the fate of the extremists notwithstanding, he had reason to ponder the possibility that his more respectable political enemies might use the peace issue to unsettle and embarrass the administration. In April OFF warned that in the fall congressional campaigns "subversion will probably be intermingled with politics" as both administration opponents and Nazi propagandists seek to "promote defeatism or play upon the war weariness of the people." Fleshing out this prediction was a report informing the President that three leading isolationist Republicans, Congressman Joe Martin, former Congressman Bruce Barton, and publisher Roy Howard, had "just held a secret meeting in far off Tucson," leading to speculation that they were planning an "isolationist attack" against administration war policies. A more explicit warning came to Roosevelt from a friend, New Dealer Gardiner Jackson, who told him in the fall of 1942 that the business interests behind the presidential candidacy of Thomas E. Dewey were working hard for a negotiated peace and had taken a recent conciliatory speech by Hitler as the "opening gun of the drive to call the war off. . . ." The problem raised by these reports (if true) was, as OFF warned, that even if the agitation of the peace issue could not force the administration into negotiations, it could do "much damage" by strengthening "the hand of those in Congress whose main goal is the harassment and obstruction of the President."37

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 641
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Australia

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by historygeek2021 » 17 Mar 2021 03:54

It was totally feasible for Germany to defeat the USSR. They just had to modify Operation Barbarossa to something like this:

Barbarossa funny.png

Halder's such a dummy. Why didn't he think of this? :lol:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 04:02

History Learner wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:52
daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:15
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
Um, yeah ... mmmkay.

How many Americans who were of age in 1941 have you ever spoken with?
Worth noting that, IOTL, support for a peace deal shot up to 40% at several points and this was with the OTL situation:
And yet, the Republicans were in the minority in both houses throughout the war.

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 04:03

historygeek2021 wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:54
It was totally feasible for Germany to defeat the USSR. They just had to modify Operation Barbarossa to something like this:


Barbarossa funny.png


Halder's such a dummy. Why didn't he think of this? :lol:
Excellent point. ;)

historygeek2021
Member
Posts: 641
Joined: 17 Dec 2020 06:23
Location: Australia

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by historygeek2021 » 17 Mar 2021 04:23

History Learner wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:52
daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:15
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
Um, yeah ... mmmkay.

How many Americans who were of age in 1941 have you ever spoken with?
Worth noting that, IOTL, support for a peace deal shot up to 40% at several points and this was with the OTL situation:

Image

See American Popular Opinion and the War Against Germany: The Issue of Negotiated Peace, 1942 by Richard W. Steele,The Journal of American History , Dec., 1978, Vol. 65, No. 3 (Dec., 1978), pp. 704-723:
The coming of war to America changed but did not destroy the peace issue. Many of those who had stubbornly resisted involvement now hoped to terminate it as quickly as possible, and apparently only a lack of organization significantly differentiated sentiment for a negotiated peace from the isolationism of 1941. Moreover, as the President quickly learned, the leadership for an effective negotiated peace movement seemed likely to emerge from the die-hard remnants of the America First Committee, particularly in the person of the isolationist national hero, Charles A. Lindbergh.​

America First officially disbanded in February, and many of its officials announced their support for the war effort. Nevertheless, the activities of some members, including Lindbergh, remained the subject of government interest and concern. In mid-February Federal Bureau of Investigation Director J. Edgar Hoover informed the President that former members of the Committee had "gone underground" and were "biding their time," awaiting the opportunity to emerge again as a "political force." Hoover cited as evidence a mid-December meeting at which the renowned flyer had allegedly held forth on the yellow and Bolshevik menaces, on the foolishness of the current war in Europe, and on what might be done to reverse American policy. ​

According to Hoover's informant, Lindbergh declared that "when the American people, by reason of the lists of the missing and the statements of war losses, realize that they have been betrayed by the British and the Administration," the Committee should be ready to "advocate a negotiated peace." Hoover also noted that he had obtained information from other sources to the effect that the America Firsters had a "secret mailing list of 8,476,000"; that lately a "great many individuals among foreign speaking groups have been circularized"; and that the leaders of the underground organization planned to hold a "series of house parties . .. to keep alive contacts."34​
Further:
Nevertheless, the President could not rest easy, for the fate of the extremists notwithstanding, he had reason to ponder the possibility that his more respectable political enemies might use the peace issue to unsettle and embarrass the administration. In April OFF warned that in the fall congressional campaigns "subversion will probably be intermingled with politics" as both administration opponents and Nazi propagandists seek to "promote defeatism or play upon the war weariness of the people." Fleshing out this prediction was a report informing the President that three leading isolationist Republicans, Congressman Joe Martin, former Congressman Bruce Barton, and publisher Roy Howard, had "just held a secret meeting in far off Tucson," leading to speculation that they were planning an "isolationist attack" against administration war policies. A more explicit warning came to Roosevelt from a friend, New Dealer Gardiner Jackson, who told him in the fall of 1942 that the business interests behind the presidential candidacy of Thomas E. Dewey were working hard for a negotiated peace and had taken a recent conciliatory speech by Hitler as the "opening gun of the drive to call the war off. . . ." The problem raised by these reports (if true) was, as OFF warned, that even if the agitation of the peace issue could not force the administration into negotiations, it could do "much damage" by strengthening "the hand of those in Congress whose main goal is the harassment and obstruction of the President."37
So three congressman and a few followers of Charles Lindbergh were having secret house parties. Wow, I never knew America came so close forgiving and forgetting the whole Pearl Harbor thing ... :roll:

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 04:39

historygeek2021 wrote:
17 Mar 2021 04:23
History Learner wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:52
daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 03:15
Politician01 wrote:
16 Mar 2021 13:21
It also completely ignores US public opinion. People do not want war - its the Politicians that want it. With Roosevelt on the loosing side, he might well loose the 1944 election to a Republican who promises to make peace with Germany and to concentrate on Japan. Regardless, he is dead in April 45 anyway, giving Truman the opportunity to conduct realpolitics.
Um, yeah ... mmmkay.

How many Americans who were of age in 1941 have you ever spoken with?
Worth noting that, IOTL, support for a peace deal shot up to 40% at several points and this was with the OTL situation:
So three congressman and a few followers of Charles Lindbergh were having secret house parties. Wow, I never knew America came so close forgiving and forgetting the whole Pearl Harbor thing ... :roll:
[/quote]


And the German declaration of war on Dec. 10. ;)

User avatar
TheMarcksPlan
Banned
Posts: 3255
Joined: 15 Jan 2019 22:32
Location: USA

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 17 Mar 2021 05:07

daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 04:55
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Mar 2021 04:41
Guys there are better forums for inane banter between low-information posters who want their views confirmed. https://www.reddit.com/r/ShitWehraboosSay/
This seems rather hostile.
It's annoyed; not necessarily hostile. You and HG21 have filled nearly a page of this thread with banter contributing zero information, substituting argument for eyerolls and quips. It runs up the page-count of a thread, makes the forum less informative and intellectually stimulating.
https://twitter.com/themarcksplan
https://www.reddit.com/r/AxisHistoryForum/
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

daveshoup2MD
Member
Posts: 1541
Joined: 01 Feb 2020 18:10
Location: Coral and brass

Re: WW2 Air war in Europe with a defeated USSR?

Post by daveshoup2MD » 17 Mar 2021 05:11

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Mar 2021 05:07
daveshoup2MD wrote:
17 Mar 2021 04:55
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Mar 2021 04:41
Guys there are better forums for inane banter between low-information posters who want their views confirmed. https://www.reddit.com/r/ShitWehraboosSay/
This seems rather hostile.
It's annoyed; not necessarily hostile. You and HG21 have filled nearly a page of this thread with banter contributing zero information, substituting argument for eyerolls and quips. It runs up the page-count of a thread, makes the forum less informative and intellectually stimulating.
Four posts out of 241?

Lighten up, Francis

Return to “What if”