Politician01 wrote: ↑
18 Mar 2021 15:30
But since unlike most others you are civil Tom - for you here once again:
“Civil” - that’s the harshest thing anyone has ever said about me on here.
Politician01 wrote: ↑
18 Mar 2021 15:30
The Wallies can bomb and hope that it amounts to something - or they can invade in the Med since by late 42 all their forces are concentrated in this area - all other changes are counterproductive. If they concentrate on Japan from 42 onwards as one poster suggested, the war in Europe lays dormant and devolves into a Cold War state and would not be restarted again.
You see, I’m more in the middle on all this looking for a fence with as few splinters as possible. Though I fail to understand your, or anyone’s, certainty, in any of these rather peculiar threads.
If by some strange twist of fate’s capriciousness nature the Soviet Union was forced out of the war in late 42/early 43 it follows that the course of the war would be different. What happens then is obviously dependent on a vast range of imponderables - human agency, personality disorders, mass psychology, weather, etc.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there is any harm at all in “what-iffery” of this nature - many of the threads in this section lead off to excellent resources and greater understanding of the real-world limitations that the combatants were struggling with. That’s all fine.
I don’t really get though why people get so dogmatic and defensive about their own ATLs. They are only based on a combination of imagination, pseudo historical analysis and hindsight, all with a little fantasy thrown in. Or is that too harsh? And of course, there is a conservative tendency to see history as pre-ordained and the future as pre-destined. We are all (I’m pretty certain) only human after all.
In this case, then, I absolutely see the Allies trying to continue the CBO. Modifying it as necessary if losses by day or night become excessive, searching for technological solutions, looking for alternative targets if necessary but constantly trying to keep pressure on German economy and population. If strategic bombing was made more difficult would some of Bomber Command’s aircraft be shifted to Coastal Command with earlier impact on German U-boat campaign? Would USAAF convert to night bombing? Would Allied resources in aircraft production shift to more fighters? Would they shift resources to their own rocket/cruise missile programmes? Who knows.
I also see, however, the Nazi state has an excess of land warfare resources in the ATL in this “What-if” scenario- what Hitler decides to do with these is obviously uncertain - off the top of my head, rather than being based on deep primary source research, I guess there are a few options such as: more support to Italy in Mediterranean; attempt to recover Italy’s East African empire; drive down through Caucasus towards Persian Gulf or across Afghanistan to threaten India; all the time with some held in NW Europe as both threat and shield. Not forgetting [x] divisions in the occupied Soviet Union and all those other occupied countries that are slowly starving and being enslaved, so that the Nazis can maintain their own population’s calorie level.
How would the Allies respond to these threats by land? Defensively to start with, I imagine. With what results - anybody’s guess. Does that mean they stop trying to bomb Germany from the UK - probably not. Does that mean they are fighting a much broader air/land/sea war across a huge North African/Middle East/Central Asian front - possibly. What about Logistics, etc? Good point. It would be a struggle - but then, isn’t war “an option of difficulties”? As some British general once said in the middle of another rather lengthy war based on similarly long lines of communication.
What impact does war with Japan have on all this? Probably forces Allies (mainly US) to remain more on the defensive depending on what date we are now talking about. Has Midway happened? Did the British send PoW and Repulse to Singapore? Was the Indian Ocean safe enough to move Australian divisions back home in early 1942? Did British reinforce Burma? Etc, etc...
I hope that helps rather than hinders. Once the butterfly flaps it’s wings who can tell where the golf ball will land, etc...