Russian Military losses

Discussions on all aspects of the USSR, from the Russian Civil War till the end of the Great Patriotic War and the war against Japan. Hosted by Art.
User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 16 Jul 2021 14:45

Total military losses were 11.485 million. Including Krivosheyev's figure of 8.668 million war dead, 2.164 million forced labor in Germany, 557,700 convicts and 94,600 civilians. The Russian military archive figure of c.13.850 million includes 11.485 dead and missing as well as 354,000 released in filtration camps and 2,016,000 after 10/45.

In Millions
  • Military losses 8,668.4
    Forced labor in Germany 2,164.3
    Convicts 557.7
    Civilians 94.6
    Subtotal 11.485

    Released Pows 1,368.8
    Released workers in Germany 816.2
    Remained in the West180.0
    Archival total 13,850.0

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 16 Jul 2021 15:15

Total Soviet losses were 27Million according to official figures

In Millions
  • KIA 5,187.2
    Non combat 541.9
    WIA 1,100.3
    NKVD 55.8
    MIA 500.0
    Pow's 1,283.2
    Total military 8,668.4

    Total Forced labor 2,164.3

    Convicts 557.7
    Civilians with military 94.6
    Balance military losses 939.0
    Civilians killed 4,500.0
    Siege Leningrad 658.0
    Bombing Stalingrad 40.0
    Military remained in west 180.0
    2nd emigration 451.0
    Total Exterminated by Germans 7,420.3

    Demographic loss 10,000.0
    Less 2nd emigration (451.0)
    Less Military remained in west (180.0)
    Less returned Germans & Japanese (622.0)
    Total net demographic loss 8,747.0
Summary
  • Military 8.668.4
    Forced labor 2.164.3
    Exterminated civilians 7.420.3
    Demographic loss 8.747.0
    Total losses 27.000

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 16 Jul 2021 15:39

The calculation of Pow and forced labor is based on Axis Pow data less Soviet data on released Pows
  • German pow's 2/45 5,734,528
    Less escaped (66,694)
    Romanian pow's 82,090
    Finland pow's 64,188
    Total pow's 5,814,112.0
    Less workers Germany (818,000)
    Less remined in west(180,000)
    Less returned Pow's (1,368,849)
    Total Pow losses 3,447,263.0
  • Per Krivosheev 1,283,300.0
    Forced labor 2,164,300.0
    Total Pow losses 3,447,600.0
Total released based on Soviet data
  • Workers in Germany (818,000)
    Remained abroad (180,000)
    Returned to USSR (1,368,849)
    Total (2.366,849)
    This includes filitration camps and Golikov data.
These figures are based on preliminary data available in 1946. An article by Paval Polian provides a comprehensive discussion of POW losses.
This is available on the internet
СОВЕТСКИЕ ВОЕННОПЛЕННЫЕ: СКОЛЬКО ИХ БЫЛО И СКОЛЬКО ВЕРНУЛОСЬ?
ПАВЕЛ ПОЛЯН

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 16 Jul 2021 16:54

The schedule of those conscripted should be updated

In millions
  • Army/Navy 6/41 4,826.9
    Civilians 74.9
    Total conscripted 31,812.2
    Less rejected (1,154.8)
    Less transferred to industry (142.8)
    Less Balance military losses (939.7)
    Total conscripted 34,476.7

    On sick leave (3,798.2)
    Industry/paramilitary units(3,614.6)
    Sent to NKVD (1,174.6)
    Polish/Czech/Romania (250.4)
    Convicts (436.6)
    Discharged (206.0)
    deserters(212.4)

    Remaining 7/1/1945 (12,839.8)
    Losses@ 7/1/1945 11,944.1

    Adjustments
    Far East 8/1945 12.0
    NKVD 55.8
    Returned to USSR 1,836.5
    Net losses during war 13,848.4
  • Total actual losses 11,485
    Returned workers in Germany 816
    Returned pow's 1,368
    Remained in the west 180
    Demographic loss during war 13.849
[youtube]https://youtu.be/vKQYL1rYllE [/youtube]

My father was a tank driver with the US 9th Army, he met our Soviet allies in April 1945.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 16 Jul 2021 19:55, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 16 Jul 2021 18:18

In millions
  • Pop 6/41 196,716
    Births 12,400
    Deaths (11,900)
    War deaths (26,668)
    Pop 12/45 170,548
Source ADK 1993 pp. 73-79 and 118
  • Military losses 13,850
    Less returned workers from Germany (816)
    Less returned Pow's (1,368)
    Less remained in west (180)
    Civilians killed 4,500
    Siege Leningrad 642
    Bombing Stalingrad 40
    Demographic loss 10,000 Note A
    War deaths 26,668
Note A - Population Dynamics: Consequences of Regular and Irregular Changes
ByEvgeny M. Andreev, Leonid E. Darsky, Tatiana L. Kharkova

Note well

1- this is only a demographic estimate of the ending 1945 population. There is no reliable documented source for the ending population in 1945

2-The Demographic loss of 10,000 includes 4.1 million deaths due to famine and disease according to Russian official sources.

3-The beginning population in 1939 is disputed with sources ranging from 167.6 to 170.5 million.

4-The hypothetical model of ADK puts the entire loss of 26.6 million in 1941-45. Excess male deaths are 13.6 million. There are no reliable documented sources for vital statistics from 1939-58.

Ivlev has published Gosplan data from 1945 showing a population of 151.1 million. We need to add military forces, the NKVD and custodial population and the civilian population abroad in Europe. These groups may add to about 170 million. ADK never provided an estimated breakout of the 1945 population using the methodology of the 1939 census.

Pods
Member
Posts: 20
Joined: 06 Feb 2019 13:27
Location: Madrid

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Pods » 12 Aug 2021 17:56

There is a big difference between the military deaths reported by Krivosheev (8.7M) and the excess male mortality (13.5M).

Anyone have any explanation? Are Krivosheev's figures underestimated?

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6317
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 12 Aug 2021 19:11

What is the number 13.6 million and where it came from? According to Andreyev, Darskiy and Kharkova the war-related male losses were 20.5 million, from babies to old men. Of them ages, which made up the bulk of military forces (born in 1896-1930), accounted for 16.2 million. Of course, the numbers are approximate, but the general proportion must be valid.

Pods
Member
Posts: 20
Joined: 06 Feb 2019 13:27
Location: Madrid

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Pods » 12 Aug 2021 20:57

Art wrote:
12 Aug 2021 19:11
What is the number 13.6 million and where it came from? According to Andreyev, Darskiy and Kharkova the war-related male losses were 20.5 million, from babies to old men. Of them ages, which made up the bulk of military forces (born in 1896-1930), accounted for 16.2 million. Of course, the numbers are approximate, but the general proportion must be valid.
The excess male mortality by age is (in millions):
0-14: 0.027
15-19: 0.723
20-34: 6.543
35-49: 5.358
Over 49: 1.038

Children (0-14) are not relevant in this regard.

Even ignoring those over 49 (we should not since many of them probably died in battle), the excess male mortality would exceed 12 million.

This measurement is also much more realistic since official figures give an extraordinarily high number of civilian deaths for which the cause is unknown.

Art
Forum Staff
Posts: 6317
Joined: 04 Jun 2004 19:49
Location: Moscow, Russia

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by Art » 12 Aug 2021 22:02

Strictly speaking these numbers are not excess deaths but rather the difference between male and female war losses as calculated by ADK. Male losses = 20.05 million, female = 6.56 million. The difference = 13.5 million.
The hypothesis that this difference is equal to military casualties (in other words that non-military casualties were equally distributed between genders) is somehow simplified IMO. But anyway, 12 million is probably closer to the actual military part of losses. I would put them in the range between 11 and 12 million.

User avatar
TheMarcksPlan
Member
Posts: 2795
Joined: 15 Jan 2019 22:32
Location: USA

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 13 Aug 2021 01:37

In Hunger and War the authors document that excess (starvation-caused) mortality among urban workers was epidemically high and especially among military-aged men. In many districts, ~10% of men in their 30's died. Starvation deaths were definitely not distributed equally by gender; men died far more often.

Art- what is the date of the hypothesis you reference? Hunger and War is somewhat recent.

Image
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2021 04:19

The demographic analysis of ADK assumes that the loss of 26.6 million occurs during 1941-45. The details are on page 118 of Население Советского Союза : 1922-1991
  • In Millions
    Population 6/41 196,716
    Births 12,400
    Natural deaths (11,900)
    War losses(26,668)
    Population 12/45 170,548
In am skeptical that all of the deaths occurred during the war. ADK has not provided a source that supports the population balance of 170.548 million in 1945. ADK has bases their figures on a hypothetical demographic analysis. The source should be a census or a population survey. Note well a survey was conducted in June 1941 published by Ivlev showing a population of 151.166 million, Krivosheev puts the military at 12.839 million, the repatriation data shows 5.719 million and finally posts here on the Axis History Forum put the NKVD at 916,000.
  • Ivlev 151,166
    Military 12,839
    Repatriation 5,719
    NKVD 916
    Ending population 170,640


ADK did not provide a similar analysis, but note well in the ADK detail of the 1939 census( pp31-33) lists additions for population in remote regions, population in transit and population that was undercounted (ADK mentions women in rural area) I doubt that the Ivlev figure of 151.166 million is accurate.
However another analysis by ADK based on the post war election figures in Демографическая история России:1927-1959 (Chap. 7) tends to support a adult war loss of about 20 million. This is available on Demoscope.
Last edited by thorwald77 on 13 Aug 2021 14:29, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2021 04:37

This is my estimate of the total Soviet war losses

  • Killed 5,226,800
    DOW 1,102,800
    Non Combat 555,500
    MIA 500,000
    POW 1,283,300
    Subtotal Krivosheev 8,668,400

    Subtotal Balance Pows(forced labor) 2,164,300

    Military executed (OMD data base) 71,700
    Military convicts(penal unit/executed) 562,800
    Other military Losses 956,800
    Civilians killed 4,500,000
    Siege Leningrad 658,000
    Bombing Stalingrad 40,000
    2nd Emmigration 451,000
    Military deserters 180,000
    Subtotal Civilians "exterminated" 7,420,300


    Demographic loss 10,000,000
    2nd Emmigration (451,000)
    Military deserters (180,000)
    Post war emmigration (622,000)
    Subtotal Other Losses 8,747,000

    Grand total war dead 27,000,000
Last edited by thorwald77 on 13 Aug 2021 14:14, edited 4 times in total.

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 13 Aug 2021 06:09

Reconciliation of military losses
  • A.Balance per reports
    Killed 5,226,800
    DOW 1,102,800
    Non Combat 555,500
    MIA 500,000
    POW 1,283,300
    Balance Pows 2,164,300
    Military executed (OMD data base) 71,700
    Military convicts(penal unit/executed) 562,800
    Total Military losses 11.467.200
  • B. Reconciliation of conscripts
    Balance of conscripted(7/1945) 11,444.1
    Far East (8/1945) 12.0
    Adjs. Border/Security 15.1
    Total military losses11,471.1
  • C. OMD database
    Omd(army/Navy) 11,311,863
    Border/Securit y 159,100
    Total military losses 11,470,963
  • D. Russian Military Archive
    Total military losses 11,470,963
    Add Released POws
    Filtration centers 354,593
    Golikov 2,016,480
    Total 13,841,636
    Illenkov puts losses at "about 13,850,000"

User avatar
thorwald77
Member
Posts: 507
Joined: 25 Sep 2007 17:42
Location: usa

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by thorwald77 » 15 Aug 2021 14:46

Pods wrote
There is a big difference between the military deaths reported by Krivosheev (8.7M) and the excess male mortality (13.5M). Anyone have any explanation? Are Krivosheev's figures underestimated?
The figures of Krivosheev are false. In America we say that dog won't hunt.
  • A. Krivosheev
    Total per reconciliation of conscripted 11,944.1
    Less
    Returned to USSR (1,836.5)
    Convicts(penal units/executed) (562.9)
    Convicted deserters imprisoned (376.3)
    Reservists not in forces(500.0)
    Balance per Krivosheev 8,668.4
Here is the correction to Krivosheev
  • Total per reconciliation of conscripted 11,944.1
    Add
    Pow's in German service 816.2
    Civilians in military service 94.6
    Executed at the front 71.7
    Convicts(penal units/executed) 562.9
    Less
    Released Pows (2,016.0)
    Actual losses 11,473.5

AriX
Member
Posts: 140
Joined: 29 Jun 2015 08:07
Location: Ukraine

Re: Russian Military losses

Post by AriX » 19 Aug 2021 21:22

According to the Data Base "Memorial" there are 14 000 000 records of enlisted and officers , whom were KIA, DOW, MIA or had died in captivit during WW2. Krivosheev & Co were just a bunch of Russian state paid fraudsters with theirs 8.6M casulties. Todaus russian propoganda is trying to expain such disperency that "Data Base contains a lot of duplicates". Yea, right, almost two duplicates per person.

For example, Soviet losses in Soviet-Japanese war in 1945 are numbered as aprox. 13 000 KIA and DOW, while there are 28 000 Soviet war graves in Northern China and N.Korea.

Return to “The Soviet Union at War 1917-1945”