If Franz Ferdinand lives in 1914, what are your thoughts on these alternative possible triggers for WWI?

[Futurist]

If Franz Ferdinand lives in 1914, what are your thoughts on these alternative possible triggers for WWI?

Scenario #1:

(Based on this scenario, but with the Franco-Russians helping another side: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/ ... eich.2679/ )

Franz Joseph dies sometime in the late 1910s and Franz Ferdinand becomes Emperor of Austria after his death. As a precondition for him being crowned King of Hungary, France Ferdinand demands the implementation of universal suffrage in Hungary. Hungary's Magyar elites refuse to accept this demand on the part of Franz Ferdinand, which in turn causes Franz Ferdinand to launch Plan U (short for Plan Ungarn--look it up; it was a real plan) in an attempt on his part to conquer Hungary by force and to impose martial law there. Anyway, with Franco-Russian support, Serbia, Romania, and/or Italy use the civil war in Austria-Hungary as an opportunity to support separatist rebels of their own (Serbs, Romanians, and/or Italians, respectively) and to demand territory at Austria-Hungary's expense, with them being prepared to use force to achieve their goals if Austria-Hungary refuses to yield voluntarily. If Austria-Hungary and Germany indeed refuse international arbitration in regards to solving these territorial disputes, then an alternate World War I might very well break out in the late 1910s. By that point in time, the Schlieffen Plan was perceived as being obsolete due to Russian strategic railroad construction in Poland being completed, but Germany can shift to an East-first strategy while playing defense in the West and to aim for something less than a comprehensive total victory over its opponents.

Scenario #2:

Due to Russian instigations, Armenian-Kurdish violence breaks out in eastern Anatolia, with this violence being directed towards both the Ottomans and each other (as in, Armenians vs. Kurds, and Kurds vs. Armenians). Russia uses this crisis to militarily intervene in eastern Anatolia, after which point Germany and Austria-Hungary send Russia an ultimatum to withdraw from the Ottoman Empire and to settle this question through international arbitration, such as by creating an independent Armenian-Kurdish Greater Armenian state and having some princeling from some impartial country assume the newly created throne of this Greater Armenian state. Anyway, Russia refuses to accept this ultimatum and thus Germany and Austria-Hungary declare war on Russia while France declares war on both Germany and Austria-Hungary in support of its Russian ally. Britain remains neutral since there is no German invasion of Belgium here and since Russian aggression against the Ottoman Empire would make Russia look scarier than it looked in mid-1914 in real life.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on these two scenarios of mine? Realistic or not at all?

[Terry Duncan]

If Franz Ferdinand lives in 1914, what are your thoughts on these alternative possible triggers for WWI?

There are so many really, given the rather strange sequence that started the war it is possible almost any diplomatic spat could escalate.

Hungary's Magyar elites refuse to accept this demand on the part of Franz Ferdinand, which in turn causes Franz Ferdinand to launch Plan U (short for Plan Ungarn--look it up; it was a real plan) in an attempt on his part to conquer Hungary by force and to impose martial law there.

I knew of the plan, just not the name. It is an interesting prospect as Conrad was in full agreement with Franz-Ferdinand too, and I doubt anyone would come to the rescue of Hungary, though Romania may well try to annex certain areas if given the chance?

Anyway, what are your thoughts on these two scenarios of mine? Realistic or not at all?

They are possible certainly, though quite how the diplomatic process works in each nation can be open to question. In the end, it will always be self-interest that sees others intervene.

The one major spark for a war that is often ignored is an unusual one as whilst it was known about prior to when it was designed to take place, the conditions it creates exactly match those that require Germany to go to war without further notice, if what they told the world about the July Crisis is indeed correct.

When the harvest was completed, Russia was to conduct a full-scale total mobilisation of its entire armed forces and thus inadvertently cross the line where it would already be too late for Germany unless she went to war before the mobilisation was completed. The mere notice of a declaration of mobilisation was enough in the July Crisis to see Germany take the leap to war, so having the entire Russian army mustered and deployed to its mobilisation points would certainly have crossed the line. France would mobilise at a similar speed to Germany, so either Germany must act in case a surprise attack is launched as soon as mobilisation is complete, or Germany can sit back and trust them not to attack her.

[Futurist]

If Franz Ferdinand lives in 1914, what are your thoughts on these alternative possible triggers for WWI?

There are so many really, given the rather strange sequence that started the war it is possible almost any diplomatic spat could escalate.

Agreed.

Hungary's Magyar elites refuse to accept this demand on the part of Franz Ferdinand, which in turn causes Franz Ferdinand to launch Plan U (short for Plan Ungarn--look it up; it was a real plan) in an attempt on his part to conquer Hungary by force and to impose martial law there.

I knew of the plan, just not the name. It is an interesting prospect as Conrad was in full agreement with Franz-Ferdinand too, and I doubt anyone would come to the rescue of Hungary, though Romania may well try to annex certain areas if given the chance?

I suspect that Romania might not be the only one who would try to annex certain territories. Serbia and/or Italy might also be interested in territorial expansion at Austria-Hungary expense in such a scenario. Of course, all of these powers are likely going to need Franco-Russian support for such moves on their part or else they will get quickly crushed.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on these two scenarios of mine? Realistic or not at all?

They are possible certainly, though quite how the diplomatic process works in each nation can be open to question. In the end, it will always be self-interest that sees others intervene.

Agreed.

The one major spark for a war that is often ignored is an unusual one as whilst it was known about prior to when it was designed to take place, the conditions it creates exactly match those that require Germany to go to war without further notice, if what they told the world about the July Crisis is indeed correct.

When the harvest was completed, Russia was to conduct a full-scale total mobilisation of its entire armed forces and thus inadvertently cross the line where it would already be too late for Germany unless she went to war before the mobilisation was completed. The mere notice of a declaration of mobilisation was enough in the July Crisis to see Germany take the leap to war, so having the entire Russian army mustered and deployed to its mobilisation points would certainly have crossed the line. France would mobilise at a similar speed to Germany, so either Germany must act in case a surprise attack is launched as soon as mobilisation is complete, or Germany can sit back and trust them not to attack her.

You're talking about a full-scale total mobilization only in the event of an already existing crisis situation, right? Not in the context of war games or anything else?

[Terry Duncan]

The full-scale mobilisation intended was a practice to test the full procedure, and I do believe military exercises were planned once the forces arrived at their depots. From the details I have read in various books, it would seem full-scale manoeuvres were intended using the entire army.

Of interest, a similar situation had already arisen in 1914 that led to fatal consequences. The Austro-Hungarian forces in Bosnia conducted deployment and exercises in Bosnia very close to the Serbian border. This apparently led Dimitrijevic to conclude Franz-Ferdinand would use the opportunity to invade Serbia, and led to the decision to aid Princip's merry little band of would-be killers.

[Futurist]

The full-scale mobilisation intended was a practice to test the full procedure, and I do believe military exercises were planned once the forces arrived at their depots. From the details I have read in various books, it would seem full-scale manoeuvres were intended using the entire army.

Is there anywhere where I can read more about this?

Of interest, a similar situation had already arisen in 1914 that led to fatal consequences. The Austro-Hungarian forces in Bosnia conducted deployment and exercises in Bosnia very close to the Serbian border. This apparently led Dimitrijevic to conclude Franz-Ferdinand would use the opportunity to invade Serbia, and led to the decision to aid Princip's merry little band of would-be killers.

Interesting. Was this deployment and exercises comparable to a mobilization? Or did the Serbs simply fail to grasp the difference?

Also, off-topic, but in regards to the second scenario in my original post here:

Scenario #2:

Due to Russian instigations, Armenian-Kurdish violence breaks out in eastern Anatolia, with this violence being directed towards both the Ottomans and each other (as in, Armenians vs. Kurds, and Kurds vs. Armenians). Russia uses this crisis to militarily intervene in eastern Anatolia, after which point Germany and Austria-Hungary send Russia an ultimatum to withdraw from the Ottoman Empire and to settle this question through international arbitration, such as by creating an independent Armenian-Kurdish Greater Armenian state and having some princeling from some impartial country assume the newly created throne of this Greater Armenian state. Anyway, Russia refuses to accept this ultimatum and thus Germany and Austria-Hungary declare war on Russia while France declares war on both Germany and Austria-Hungary in support of its Russian ally. Britain remains neutral since there is no German invasion of Belgium here and since Russian aggression against the Ottoman Empire would make Russia look scarier than it looked in mid-1914 in real life.

Do you have any idea as to who a good compromise candidate for the king of an independent Greater Armenia in the absence of World War I (if WWI is indeed avoided as a result of this) that would have been acceptable to all of the European Great Powers, including Germany, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire, would have been?

[Terry Duncan]

Is there anywhere where I can read more about this?

Sadly, the answer is no. I have seen brief mentions about it in many books in different degrees of information, but what I have written here pretty much sums it up. I imagine there would have been plans but have no idea if they have survived.

Interesting. Was this deployment and exercises comparable to a mobilization? Or did the Serbs simply fail to grasp the difference?

From memory, it was two complete army corps that were on exercise, so I imagine that would include all troops assigned including reserve men. It was obvious it did not involve the entire army as men were needed for the crops at this time, and notably, Conrad cited the August 12th date for a full mobilisation to complete and deploy as the suitable date for war. The Serbs seem to have been rather poor at intelligence with regards Austria as they believed (or at least Dimitrijevic did) that Franz-Ferdinand was the head of the 'War Party' too, so the Serbs were certainly let down here.

Do you have any idea as to who a good compromise candidate for the king of an independent Greater Armenia in the absence of World War I (if WWI is indeed avoided as a result of this) that would have been acceptable to all of the European Great Powers, including Germany, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire, would have been?

I could have a stab at naming someone but being totally honest I really have no idea and would only be able to do so from a list of suitable royals from the many minor branches across Europe. As to objections, see the Liman von Sanders squabbles as being a good idea on how such a thing could go!

[Futurist]

Is there anywhere where I can read more about this?

Sadly, the answer is no. I have seen brief mentions about it in many books in different degrees of information, but what I have written here pretty much sums it up. I imagine there would have been plans but have no idea if they have survived.

Interesting. Was this deployment and exercises comparable to a mobilization? Or did the Serbs simply fail to grasp the difference?

From memory, it was two complete army corps that were on exercise, so I imagine that would include all troops assigned including reserve men. It was obvious it did not involve the entire army as men were needed for the crops at this time, and notably, Conrad cited the August 12th date for a full mobilisation to complete and deploy as the suitable date for war. The Serbs seem to have been rather poor at intelligence with regards Austria as they believed (or at least Dimitrijevic did) that Franz-Ferdinand was the head of the 'War Party' too, so the Serbs were certainly let down here.

Do you have any idea as to who a good compromise candidate for the king of an independent Greater Armenia in the absence of World War I (if WWI is indeed avoided as a result of this) that would have been acceptable to all of the European Great Powers, including Germany, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire, would have been?

I could have a stab at naming someone but being totally honest I really have no idea and would only be able to do so from a list of suitable royals from the many minor branches across Europe. As to objections, see the Liman von Sanders squabbles as being a good idea on how such a thing could go!

Thanks for your answers here, Terry! And Yes, I'm well-aware of the Liman von Sanders affair. By the way, if there is no World War I and there will still eventually be a Russian Revolution sometime between 1915 and 1940 due to Tsar Nicholas II's incompetence, could we see Germany support separatist movements in Russia if this Russian Revolution will eventually turn into a Russian Civil War? Could that be a trigger for an alternate World War I?