Reliability of Sovjet military deaths

[ljadw]

Both are not opposing each other .
The loss of 1,3 million fire weapons does not mean 1,3 million irreventible casualties .

[Art]

According to Krivosheev and co. the Red Army suffered 390.000 irreventible casulties during the Moscov offensive in the winter of 1941/42 while 1.3 million rifles, carbines, submachine guns were lost.

"were written off" would be the better words, I suppose.
It's clear that by early December 1941 the West and Kalinin Fronts simply didn't have this physcial number of weapons.
I suspect that the secret was simple. Divisions destroyed in the Vyazma pocket were officially deactivated in late December 1941. Weapons belonging to them were probably also written off around the same time.
For comparison, official numbers for losses of small arms in the Moscow Defense operation (30.09-5.12.41) are 250,800. Clearly this number is downstated and losses were probably registered after 5.12.41.

[thorwald77]

AriX wrote

That's what you should know about the reability of the soviet official numbers.

Regarding the discrepancy in Krivosheev's casualty figures. His figures include Soviet data for those killed or died, prisoners and missing according to Soviet sources. He does not include the Soviet data listed in his study for penal units, executions, additional pows to reconcile to German records, and reservists captured before being taken into the active forces. Not included are civilians in military service, militia units and partisan losses. He also excludes deserters and defectors to west at the end of the war.

All figures in (1,000)

Krivosheev corrected

Reconciliation of conscripts

• KIA 5,187.1
  Non combat deaths 541.9
  DOW 1,100.3
  Border/Security 55.8
  MIA 500.0
  Pows Soviet records 1,283.0
  Reservists captured 1,000.0
  Pows from German records 1,162.0
  Convicts 557.7
  Deserters 376.3
  Defectors 180.0
  Military losses 11,944.1

Summary of total Soviet war losses

Krivosveev's report

• KIA 5,226.7
  DOW 1,102.8
  Non combat deaths 555.5
  MIA 500.0
  POWs in Soviet records 1,283.0
  Subtotal Krivosveev's report 8,668.0

Not in Krivosheevs figures

• Reservist pow losses Soviet records 1,000.0
  Additional pow losses from Axis records 1,162.0
  Civilians in military service 91.0
  Convicts penal units 422.7
  Convicts executed 135.0
  Deserters 376.3
  Defectors to west 180.0
  Militia 150.0
  Partisans 250.0
  Total military casualties 12,435.0

Civilian losses

• Civilians killed 4,500.0
  Siege of Leningrad 658.0
  Bombing of Stalingrad 40.0
  Excess deaths occupied region 4,100.0
  Excess deaths interior 3,600.0
  Increase infant mortality 1,280.0
  ADK balance of war losses 26,613.0

POW losses

• Pow Germany 5,734.0
  Pow Romania 82.0
  Pow Finland 64.0
  Escaped Pows (70.0)
  subtotal Pows held 5,810.0
  Freeded filtration (349.0)
  Freeded Golikov (2,016.0)
  Pow losses 3,445.0

• Pow losses in Krivosheev 1,283.0
  Pow reservist losses 1,000.0
  Pow losse from Axis records 1,162.0
  Pow losses 3,445.0[/list]
  
  Most of the 150 K the Militia losses were in the 1941 battle of Moscow. In 1942 the Militia divisions were incorporated into the Red Army.

[thorwald77]

Data Fronts & Fleets is a summary of the casualties of the 42 Fronts and 12 fleets listed in the Krivosheev study. This supports Krivosheev's total reported losses of 9.168 million. However his figures are obviously understated and lack credibility

We can verify the figures of Krivosheev, Excel will do most of our work. All you need to do is input the data into a spreadsheet.

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non Combat 534.3
  MIA 4,452.3
  DOW 1,104.1
  Released Pows (2,016)
  Civilians in military (91.1)
  Total casualties 9,168.3

• Reported "MIA" 4,452.3
  Less
  Convicts (562.0)
  Civilians in military (91.0)
  Returned Pows (2,016.0)
  Total POW/MIA losses 1,783.3

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non combat 534.3
  Dow 1,102.8
  Pows /MIA 1,783.3
  Convicts 562.9
  Total losses 9,168.0

[AriX]

According to Krivosheev and co. the Red Army suffered 390.000 irreventible casulties during the Moscov offensive in the winter of 1941/
I suspect that the secret was simple. Divisions destroyed in the Vyazma pocket were officially deactivated in late December 1941. Weapons belonging to them were probably also written off around the same time.
For comparison, official numbers for losses of small arms in the Moscow Defense operation (30.09-5.12.41) are 250,800. Clearly this number is downstated and losses were probably registered after 5.12.41.

In this case figure of manpower losses would be more high.

[thorwald77]

Ari X wrote

In this case figure of manpower losses would be more high.

We need to see all the reports to reconcile those conscripted during the course of the war in order to verify the figure of 11.944K @ 1 July 1945. Also each of the monthly reports for the fronts and fleets that were used to work up the the figures @ 1 July 1945. From an accountants POV Krivosheev's report is as soft as shit and not worth the paper it was printed on.

[Art]

In this case figure of manpower losses would be more high.

They sort of were, espcially if defunct Reserve Front is added. Anyway, I would rely on the common sense. If losses of small arms in October-November 1941 were suspiciously low, but in December 1941 they were suspiciously high, then the numbers are altogether wrong or they are an artifact of reporting procedure.

According to strength returns the West, Kalinin and the right wing of the South-West Front had about 650,000 rifles, SMGs and machine-guns by the start of the Moscow counteroffensive (1.12.41). At the same time according to Krivosheyev their losses of small arms in a month (5.12.41-7.1.42) were 1,093,800. The latter number simply cannot be true.

[Art]

Let's return to the casualties electronic database (https://obd-memorial.ru)
At the present moment the database yields above 11 million records from casualties list submitted by military units in 1941-45. By year:
1941 - 1 673 763
1942 - 3 232 821
1943 - 2 859 979
1944 - 2 358 349
1945 - 1 229 716
As already explained, the database contains many duplicating and overlapping records. Hence the physical number of casualties is smaller than the number of records. In order to estimate the scale of duplicating I've made the sample search, using a very typical name "Sergey Sergeyev". The database yields 509 records corresponding to this name, including:
killed - 228
fallen - 37
died of wounds - 65
died of disease - 15
missing in action - 138
misc. (sentenced, wounded, died) - 26
After removing duplicating records that leaves 351 casualties. That's the maximal number, because I can't be sure that I found all duplicates. Corresponding correction factor is roughly 70%. By causes casualties are distributed as:
killed - 193
died of wounds - 46
died of disease - 11
missing - 91
drowned - 1
died in captivity
died of poisoning
executed - 1
suicide - 1
died of hunger - 1
unspecified reasons - 4

So uniformly applying 70% correction factor to all records we obtain the following rough estimates for the number of casualties
1941 - 1 170 000 vs. 3 140 000 irrevocable casualties according to Krivosheyev
1942 - 2 260 000 vs. 3 260 000
1943 - 2 000 000 vs. 2 300 000
1944 - 1 650 000 vs. 1 760 000
1945 - 860 000 vs. 800 000 (January-June)

Note that database includes casualties of regular military (Army, Navy, NKVD) and in some cases even irregular (MPVO or partisans). while official publication gives only casualties of the Red Army and Navy. Anyway, the conclusion is that in 1944-45 we have a reasonably good match between the database and official numbers. At the same time in 1941-42 the database underestimates the number of casualties. That is what can be expected from a common sense, since registration was obviously incomplete and, in particular, many missing and prisoners were not included in casualties lists. The discrepancy would be even more larger when considering that official numbers are also understated. The year 1943 is an intermediate situation, I can't say if the difference is real or resulted from a sampling error.

[thorwald77]

Anyway, I would rely on common sense. The records from casualties the lists submitted by military units do not agree with the losses of those conscripted 11.944 million, less deserters and defectors 576,300. We need to add back the 2.365 million Pows returned. A casualty from the perspective of a family member is a son or husband who was called up and went went missing. The fact that he was not in the lists submitted by military units is meaningless.

• Loss of conscripted 11,944
  Civilians in military service 91
  Deserters (376)
  Defectors (180)
  Pow Freed before 10/44 355
  Pow Freed after 10/44 2,016
  Archive balance 13,850

[thorwald77]

Figures in (1,000)
Here is the Krivosheev raw data from the 42 Fronts and 12 fleets

• KIA 5,184.7
  Non Combat losses 534.3
  DOW 1,102.8
  "MIA" 4,4452.3
  Total 11,274.1

• Convicts 557.7
  POW/MIA 3,800.0
  Civilians in military service 94.6
  Total "MIA" 4,4452.3

• POW/MIA 3,800.0
  Less Freed (2016.5)
  Krivosheev Balance 1,178.5

Krivosheev 1993

• KIA 5,187.1
  Non combat deaths 541.9
  DOW 1,100.3
  Border/Security 55.8
  MIA 500.0
  POW 4,059.0
  Less:
  Returned to USSR (1,836.0)
  Convicts (562.9)
  Deserters (376.8)
  Krivosheev balance 8,668.4

• Convicts (562.9)
  Deserters (376.8)
  "Reconscripted" (939.7)

Common sense tells me that these statistics are маскировка----Дезинформа́ция

[Art]

Anyway, I would rely on common sense. The records from casualties the lists submitted by military units do not agree with the losses of those conscripted 11.944 million

And they are not expected to. Again, lists of casualties were obviously not complete in the first phase of the war, which was openly admitted by the army's command:

As a result of delayed and incomplete submission of casualties lists by military units a large discrepancy devloped between data of numerical and personal accounting of losses. Personal account currently includes of no more than one third of the actual number of killed. Personal registration of missing and prisoners of war is even farther from the truth.

From the NKO order of 12 April 1942:
http://docs.historyrussia.org/ru/nodes/ ... e/1/zoom/4

To explain it one more time there were three principal channels for registration fo casualties:
1. Staff reports on the number of battle and non-battle casualties, which on higher level (front or army) were submitted every ten days and every month.
2. Personal registration: lists of irrevocable casualties (killed, other deaths, missing, sentenced) submitted by military units to the central registration office.
3. Medical channel: registration of medical casualties (wounded and sick) and deaths in hospitals.
Offical numbers were based on 1. and partly on 3. (deaths in hospitals). The personal registration (channel 2) was so haphazard, that apparently it was useless for establishing the number of casualties, at least in the first period of the war.
The order quoted above means that as of April 1942 the number of names recieved from units through channel 2 was far less that the number of killed and missing according to the channel 1.
This discrpeancy was partly remedied by retrospective registration but it wasn't fully removed. So, the number derived from casualties lists undestates the actual number of casualties.

[thorwald77]

The statistics posted by art are as follows:

1941 - 1 673 763
1942 - 3 232 821
1943 - 2 859 979
1944 - 2 358 349
1945 - 1 229 716
Total- 11,354,628
According to Art 70%- 7,948,240 should be considered the actual casualties.

I maintain that in 1993/95 the Russian MOD used the actual data from 1945-46 for their official figures for war losses. The statistics from 1945-46 total 18.252 million. The remaining balance of 8.631 million is picked up in the ADK balance of 26.613 million.

in (1,000)

• Summary of losses
  Krivosheev 8,668
  Forced Labor Germany 2,164
  Exterminated civilians 7,420
  Total 18,252

• Details of losses
  Krivosheev 8,668
  Forced Labor Germany 2,164
  Convicts 557
  Deserters 376
  Defectors 180
  Civilians in military service 91
  Militia 146
  Partisans 250
  Civilians killed 4,500
  Siege of Leningrad 658
  Bombing of Stalingrad 40
  2nd emigration 622
  Total 18,252

• Details ADK balance
  KIA 5,226.8
  DOW 1,104.1
  Non Combat losses 555.5
  Convicts 557.7
  POW/MIA 3,944.0
  Deserters 376.3
  Defectors 180.0
  Subtotal conscripted 11,944.4
  
  Civilians in military service 94.6
  Militia 146.0
  Partisans 250.0
  Total military 12,435.0
  
  Civilians killed 4,500
  Siege of Leningrad 658
  Bombing of Stalingrad 40
  Excess deaths occupied region 4,100
  Excess deaths interior 3,600
  Increase infant mortality 1,280
  ADK balance 26,613

The ADK balance includes 3,500 Civilians in military service who were imprisoned. ADK deducted 451,000 2nd emigration and 170,000 Germans and Romanians who emigrated after the war.

[Art]

Depends what you mean by statistics and actual data. As I said I presented only those casualties that were recorded in casualties lists submitted from units/hospitals to the NKO, NKVMF and NKVD central offices. Those lists were obviously incomplete and everybody understood that. So, in addition ti them, during the war and after the war the Soviet military collected names of military personnel who were searched by their relatives or who lost contact with their families. That produced another large body of records that are available online at obd-memorial.ru.
Theoretically they fill the gap in units reporting. However, arriving to some definitive numbers is even more problematic than in case of units' casualties lists. I believe, another sample search will provide some rough idea.
These two large bodies of records (lists of casualties and lists collected by relatives) were a basis for card index of casualties in TsAMO RF, described by Ilyenkov. But once again due to duplicating and overlapping nature of records a definitive casualties numbers based on this index were problematic. Ilyenkov attempted to estimate them, but I do doubt that his calculation were fully accurate.

[thorwald77]

after the war the Soviet military collected names of military personnel who were searched by their relatives or who lost contact with their families

I suspect that some were collaborators with the fascists and given a ten year sentence or were shot under Article 58.
POW
Freed ----- Deaths---------- Captured
1,368,800 ---- 1,283,400 --- 2,652,200 -- Pows
816,200 ----- 2,161,600--- 2,977,800 -- Forced labor in Germany
180,000 -- ---------- -------- 180,000 ------ Post war defectors
2,365,000 --- 3,445,000 ------ 5,810,000 -- Total

The statistic of forced labor 2.977 million may include losses in the Soviet penal system

Those scumbags were working in factories to produce the ammunition fired at my father who served in the US 9th Army 1944-45

[youtube] https://youtu.be/xtSTMYGEyaM[/youtube]

[ljadw]

Those scumbags were doing what allied POWs did .!