Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

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A new Russian unit has joined the war in Ukraine- 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade.  This should provide 1-2 BTG.  It was transferred to the Izyum bridgehead.  So far it seems like the Russian aggression in this area is absorbing the activities of 5! Ukrainian army brigades.  A full strength Ukr army brigade has 2,700 men in 3 battalions.  A 2-battalion brigade/regiment has 1800 men.

 In the southern pincer, near Donesk city some Russian forces released from Mariupol were transferred there. 

I really think that this twin pincered "encirclement" is more and more looking like a major diversionary move to prevent the Ukrainians from rescuing their Eastern front with reserves.  Russians made more advances in the East today with Kreminna fallen and progress made in other areas. Like that youtuber theorized the town of Lyman (as in WW2) was attacked.  If this goes on the Ukrainian leadership will have to order a general withdrawal to a new defense line in the West.



https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2484255
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2484226

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Over the past 72 hours the Ukr penetration has widened at the Kharkiv axis and the Russians have given up a few towns around the city. Meanwhile they are advancing slowly in the Donbass and in some places in the South. The Kharkiv axis was the notable weak point as they withdrew the BTGs of two divisions (3rd MD and 4th TD) out to create the breakthrough at Izyum.

So there is a retreat in the north and an advance in the East and South. The Kharkiv axis has been treated like a secondary objective in the past 3 days, as if it's a punching bag to divert the Ukr from the Donbass.

Anyone recall situations in the Eastern Front where something like this happened? In my mind they would normally go strictly on the defensive and shift reserves to the threatened areas.

[Howling Wolf]

The concept present in the Russo/Ukraine war that is very disturbing to me is the Russian armored doctrine which has been a complete failure. 80 years ago during WWII the drawbacks of tank deployment in villages, towns and cities was apparent. In Stalingrad the Wehrmacht discovered quickly that tanks navigating through the wrecked city landscape became easy targets for hidden anti tank guns. This is well documented in the outstanding Jason Mark book ISLAND OF FIRE.

Fast forward to 2022 and the current Russo/Ukraine war and the Russians are repeating the mistakes made during WWII. This mistake was not just made by the Wehrmacht but any of the belligerents that used tanks in an urban landscape. One would think that the failure of tanks in urban areas against an enemy defending with modern laser guided weapon systems like APKWS the losses would be much greater then the losses suffered from 1939 - 1945.

Here is a site documenting the Russian tank and other AFVs since the war started. Tanks (624, of which destroyed: 331, damaged: 19, abandoned: 45, captured: 227)

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

Russian armor losses validate Marines' decision to dump their tanks says general

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... fefd39067a

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This is what it looked like (5/7/2022) from largely Ukrainian sources (I consider this the minimum Russian progress/maximum Ukrainian position). The Russians claim more progress than is typically shown in ISW graphics. LNP claim that Popasna (little Stalingrad) has finally fallen on this day:

[Cult Icon]

The concept present in the Russo/Ukraine war that is very disturbing to me is the Russian armored doctrine which has been a complete failure. 80 years ago during WWII the drawbacks of tank deployment in villages, towns and cities was apparent. In Stalingrad the Wehrmacht discovered quickly that tanks navigating through the wrecked city landscape became easy targets for hidden anti tank guns. This is well documented in the outstanding Jason Mark book ISLAND OF FIRE.

Fast forward to 2022 and the current Russo/Ukraine war and the Russians are repeating the mistakes made during WWII. This mistake was not just made by the Wehrmacht but any of the belligerents that used tanks in an urban landscape. One would think that the failure of tanks in urban areas against an enemy defending with modern laser guided weapon systems like APKWS the losses would be much greater then the losses suffered from 1939 - 1945.

The Ukr forces were supplied many expensive Anti-tank launchers from US/NATO countries prior to the conflict, much better than the Pzfaust and Pzshreck.

The high tank losses (if that oxyn blog is accurate) was mainly in the first 3 weeks of the war, particuarly concentrated in the northern theater (Kyiv-Sumy-Kharkiv etc), as Putin appears to have politicized the operation. He ordered his forces to seize the cities by storming them without systematic combined arms and destruction of these areas block by block. The Russians blitzed forward without flank protection & consolidating & clearing the areas that they bypassed. They took heavy vehicle losses as the Ukrainian forces counterattacked their vulnerable extended forces from the rear and flanks. This (and possible poor planning) lead to a lot of vehicles being abandoned.

Day 1 blitz. It is remarkable that most of their gains in this war really just took place in a couple of days, with high vehicle losses:




I have a strong impression that after this war is over and more reliable sources/histories are compiled, the parrellels to Soviet WW2 armored fiascos can be more clearly seen.

Meanwhile in the East and the South, the Russians have been fighting in conventional style and turning every place they encounter resistance into a blasted ruin. The current operational progress of the war has resemblance to the more clumsy and unimpressive soviet offensives of WW2 where they very slowly make gains and it turns into a grind, while the opponent deals them setbacks.

[Cult Icon]

The Azovstal reminds me of the various factory systems in Stalingrad, just like in WW2 the industrial sites proved to be the most difficult to overcome.

Russian troops and IFV attacking in the Lyman area, one of the soldiers is wearing the Soviet flag. Some Russians have been putting red victory flags with the Soviet Hammer & sickle on top of houses in this war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_85KdsPH74&t=38s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI3A2LRvG48

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May day practice at St. Petersberg. Looks like a T-34 leading the way, and behind them modernized T-90. I believe the whole T-64/T-72/T-80/T-90 series originates with the T-34 and WW2 combat experience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-a15hOTo6g

Another one is the MLRS, basically the modern Katyusha but with drone companies being used as forward observers instead of people.

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German Army presentation of the military situation, Day 70. Better than the press spiel from the Pentagon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJiuc4KWmQo

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Some data from the Military Balance 2021 (IISS):

Russian Army ε280,000 (incl conscripts)
ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES

MBT 2,840 operational (with 10,200 in storage: 7,000 T-72/T-72A/B; 3,000 T-80B/BV/U;
200 T-90)

RECCE 1,700. IFV 5,220. (8,500 in storage) APC 6,100+

ARTILLERY 4,684+ (of this Self-propelled 1,938. MRL 876+. MOR 1,540+)

(4,260 in store: 122mm 2,000
2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 2,000: 1,000 2S3 Akatsiya; 850 2S5
Giatsint-S; 150 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 260 2S7 Pion)

Naval Infantry (Marines) ε35,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 330
IFV 1,100. APC 400.
ARTILLERY 405 (of this SP 181. MRL 58. )

Airborne Forces ε45,000
ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 160
IFV 130. APC • APC (T) 808.
ARTILLERY 600+

Border Guard Service ε160,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
IFV/APC (W) 1,000 BMP/BTR
ARTILLERY 90

National Guard ε340,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
RECCE some BRDM-2A
IFV/APC (W) 1,650 BMP-2/BTR-70M/BTR-80/BTR82A/BTR-82AM
ARTILLERY 35

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Military Balance 2021 (IISS) Ukraine:

Army 145,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 858
RECCE 547. IFV 1,184. APC 622.

ARTILLERY 1,818 (of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. MOR 120mm 340)

Naval Infantry ε2,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 69

Airborne Assault Troops ε8,000

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 60
APC 180+
ARTILLERY 142

Paramilitary 102,000
National Guard ε60,000
ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
IFV 83. APC 22+

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Russian air force:

AIRCRAFT 1,160 combat capable
HELICOPTERS
ATK 394+ EW 27. TPT 333. TRG 69.

Ukrainian Air force:

AIRCRAFT ε125 combat capable
HELICOPTERS
C2 ε14. TPT 32. Medium ε30. Light 2.

[Cult Icon]

Recent Russian MOD kill claims constitute the majority or are higher than the figures provided in the 2021 IISS book. If the IISS book is accurate and the Russian MOD claims are not super inaccuate propaganda than that means the armament situation with Ukrainian forces is disasterous and current US/NATO aid is trivial in the short-run.

"In total, 165 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 845 unmanned aerial vehicles, 304 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,039 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 369 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,498 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,882 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation."

[Seppo Koivisto]

Russia seems to have used flechette type artillery ammunition in Irpin and Bucha, NW of Kyiv.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/15/euro ... index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flechette ... ainian_war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beehive_a ... nnel_round

[Howling Wolf]

Russia seems to have used flechette type artillery ammunition in Irpin and Bucha, NW of Kyiv.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/15/euro ... index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flechette ... ainian_war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beehive_a ... nnel_round

Problem is when flechettes were first used in WWI the front trench lines were not through urban areas with civilians. The Russians using these "beehive rounds" in Ukrainian urban areas result in large numbers of civilian casualties.

[Howling Wolf]

Russian air force:

AIRCRAFT 1,160 combat capable
HELICOPTERS
ATK 394+ EW 27. TPT 333. TRG 69.

Ukrainian Air force:

AIRCRAFT ε125 combat capable
HELICOPTERS
C2 ε14. TPT 32. Medium ε30. Light 2.

These numbers are extremely lopsided in favor of Russians. I still do not think that Russia can succeed in their original strategy of annexing Ukraine through military force. Maybe the USA and their European NATO allies should be negotiating with Putin and giving up some of the eastern and southeastern parts of Ukraine to Putin and guarantee to not keep pushing their NATO agenda on countries that directly border Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1041s