Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

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“The situation is very difficult. We’re losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters. The most difficult situation is in the east of Ukraine and southern Donetsk and Luhansk,” Zelensky told.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/34 ... unded.html

I can't attest to the accuracy of these claims. He may be undercounting or overcounting for their agenda.

For the second phase of operations I believe that the Russians for weeks have just been launching a material war of attrition against Ukraine in the Donbass. This has been centered on using their drone guided artillery to systematically deplete Ukrainian formations.

If the Pentagon's routine press conferences are accurate the Russians have maintained a consistent 300-200 sorties a day with their air force and approx. 35 missile strikes a day with their strategic missile forces. (although for the past 2 weeks they have stopped commenting based on the cloud cover).

With the intiation of offensive operations this implies that the "attrition" phase is complete, at least until their ground force gets bogged down again.

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Summary of April-May 2022 combat.

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According to "Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces"

-Ukraine in April - May 2022 reinforced the Donbass with 7 Territorial brigades. (Ukrainian volksgrenadiers)

These are the 101, 102, 103, 105, 106, 107, and 125 Territorial defense brigades.

-Encircled Ukrainian forces (6/1/2022) are 12,000-10,000 men:

4th Sec Brigade
17th Tank Brigade
27th Sec Brigade
58th Motorized Infantry Brigade
111th Territorial Defense Brigade
118th Territorial Defense Brigade
National Battalion "Donbass"
15th Sec Regiment

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Militaryland (entirely from Ukrainian official sources) map with the Ukr formations (6/1/2022):

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/upl ... nets_3.png

The twin cities are defended by 2nd tier units with the 1st tier forces being tied up elsewhere in the Donbass.

4th Sec Brigade
27th Sec Brigade
111th Territorial Defense Brigade

on the flanks: 17th Tank Brigade, 15th Sec Regiment.

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The much vaunted Kherson counterattack by Ukraine. They have reserves here and they are plotted at Mykolaiv.

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/upl ... line_2.png

[Gooner1]

According to "Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces"

-Ukraine in April - May 2022 reinforced the Donbass with 7 Territorial brigades. (Ukrainian volksgrenadiers)

These are the 101, 102, 103, 105, 106, 107, and 125 Territorial defense brigades.

-Encircled Ukrainian forces (6/1/2022) are 12,000-10,000 men:

4th Sec Brigade
17th Tank Brigade
27th Sec Brigade
58th Motorized Infantry Brigade
111th Territorial Defense Brigade
118th Territorial Defense Brigade
National Battalion "Donbass"
15th Sec Regiment

How are they 'encircled'?

A recap on Russia's plans

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An attempt at analyzing the first 100 days, with what I know so far:

According to the research by Military Balance 2021 (IISS), Ukraine's artillery forces, the core of their defensive power had:

ARTILLERY 1,818 (of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. MOR 120mm 340)
(4,260 in store: 122mm 2,000
2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 2,000: 1,000 2S3 Akatsiya; 850 2S5
Giatsint-S; 150 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 260 2S7 Pion)

Their first tier, professional army, navy, and airborne forces were 155,000 men in total. 2nd tier forces consisted of 102,000 paramilitary and 60,000 National Guard. To top this off they had 900,000 reservists in 2021.

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Let's say Zelensky claims are correct (600 casualties a day). 600 x 60 is 36,000 casualties in April-May 2022 for the "second phase of the special military operation". So the Russians are capable of inflicting 18,000 casualties a month on the Ukrainians. Confirmed Russian deaths (over 2,622) by the BBC RU show that Russia deaths have dramatically declined in April-May. Their death rate was the highest in March 2022.

Let's say the Ukrainians also lost 600 men a day in the "first phase". The real losses are probably much higher than this. 600 x 100 days of combat is 60,000 casualties for Ukraine. The overwhelming majority of these losses fall on their pre-war army, a force of some 317,000 men.

Besides this they have 900,000 reservists that they are converting into replacements for frontline units or cadres for new territorial/security formation. Plus countless more untrained and overaged/unfit conscripts from their male population.

The Ukrainians are very weak in all categories except for artillery and manpower. If IISS figures are accurate (combined with US/NATO deliveries) we are looking at some 6,300 heavy artillery pieces.

As of 6/2 the Russian ministry of defense claims this "In total, 186 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,087 unmanned aerial vehicles, 328 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,386 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 462 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,760 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,376 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation."

Combined with this are a few factors concerning the core of Russian combat power: 1. very consistent air and missile support (from Pentagon briefings) of 300-200 air force sorties a day plus 35 strategic missile launches per day for 100 days. 2. increasing Russian firepower of all types on the ground as they improve their logistics. 3. The combined wear and tear of strategic Russian interdiction operations over Ukraine's logistics and ability to supply their military over the course of 100 plus days.

The most optimistic and exaggerated Russian claim consider 1/3 of Ukraine's artillery force to be destroyed. Based on this claim, they would destroy Ukraine's artillery forces to the last weapon in 200 more days.

Minimum 60,000 Ukrainian casualties would leave around 250,000 men left from their pre-war army plus 900,000 reservists. Besides that the untrained and/or unfit/overaged conscripts would be only fit for territorial defense or security units.

The core of Ukraine's army is their pre-war cadre. Perhaps 80% of them still remain after 100 days of combat. After 200 more days (and provided the same assumptions) there should be much more than 40% of them left, which is still enough to provide cadres and leadership for formations. However by that time their artillery situation should be catastrophic and their casualty inflicting power very low and only a low percentage of what it once was.

[Gooner1]

The core of Ukraine's army is their pre-war cadre. Perhaps 80% of them still remain after 100 days of combat. After 200 more days (and provided the same assumptions) there should be much more than 40% of them left, which is still enough to provide cadres and leadership for formations. However by that time their artillery situation should be catastrophic and their casualty inflicting power very low and only a low percentage of what it once was.

The Ukrainian army are being reinforced by 155mm, seemingly on a daily basis.

Training has begun on GMLRS and HIMARS which should start making their impact before the month is out.

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To sum things up, the war is highly unlikely to be a peer conflict after 200 days provided that Russia still has the political will to continue the war.  The key is the destruction of Ukraine's artillery forces, which is providing the vast majority of their combat power.  Even if the Russians do not advance and just sit there and shoot them up with their firepower superiority it is likely that they will cripple the Ukrainian artillery force to a very low percentage of capability after 200 more days.  The Ukrainian manpower superiority remains their most durable arm, but beyond the pre-war cadre and active reservists,  the rest will have a very low level of training.

So in history books the Ukraine war would be dated 2022 or 2022-2023.

[Gooner1]

To sum things up, the war is highly unlikely to be a peer conflict after 200 days provided that Russia still has the political will to continue the war.  The key is the destruction of Ukraine's artillery forces, which is providing the vast majority of their combat power.  Even if the Russians do not advance and just sit there and shoot them up with their firepower superiority it is likely that they will cripple the Ukrainian artillery force to a very low percentage of capability after 200 more days. 

Based on the unsound assumption that the Russian claims of destroyed Ukrainian artillery has any veracity.

Oryxspioenkops analysis of Ukrainian artillery losses, likely an underestimate, is 69 guns and 19 rocket systems.
Furthermore they calaculate Ukrainian captures of Russian artillery as 87 guns and 32 rocket systems.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html

Artillery supplied, or to be supplied, to Ukraine by their friends is heading towards the 300 figure.


Probably only when the 105mm light gun, of which Western nations have an abundance, start appearing in numbers in Ukraine in the front line might it be safe to speculate that Ukraine is running short of artillery ..

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It seems like the situation has stabilized and an urban battle will take place in the twin cities. Ukrainian forces started counterattacking in Severodonetsk. Unless they withdraw the Russians will start demolishing the twin cities block for block.

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Pro-Russia interview- however I think a lot of military things he says can be agreed upon and are established facts. It has a lot of tactical observations:

Interview with the Komsomolskaya Pravda military correspondent Alexander Kots, who returned from the North -Eastern Military District

- Sash, let's start with what is happening around Severodonetsk, why is this important? So, what is next?

- I would not consider Severodonetsk in isolation from Lisichansk. This is one agglomeration, which was connected by three bridges across the Seversky Donets River. Now there is only one left. In fact, these are the last two large cities in the Luhansk region that have not yet been liberated. And this is a single fortified area. And Ukrainian troops cling to large cities, because it is easy to hide there, hide behind civilians, arrange a firing point from each high-rise building, as in Mariupol.

There is now one of the largest Ukrainian groups in Severodonetsk and Lysichansk. From 10 to 16 thousand people. We do not fully understand her losses, but they are serious. The road supplying these cities is under fire. But not cut off. I remember I was in 2014 with Strelkov's militia in the besieged Slavyansk. And it was through Lisichansk that our supplies went. Wandered through the fields.

I do not think that Ukrainian troops are resisting in Severodonetsk in order to save this city. They are now being evacuated to Lisichansk, because they cannot immediately roll back. The only bridge is under constant fire. They will simply be destroyed. Therefore, they run in small groups. And in Lisichansk there will already be the last battle for the liberation of the LPR.

Lisichansk is very convenient for defense, it is on a hill, approaches from all three sides are visible from it, from where the Russians are now advancing. In 2014, this city was held by the militia of the “Ghost” battalion of Alexei Mozgovoy, and the Ukrainians could not take it. Mozgovoy left Lisichansk after Strelkov left Slavyansk and it became pointless to defend the city.

- Where will Ukrainian troops fight in Donbass to the last?

- It would be beautiful in Slavyansk - where the "Russian spring" began 8 years ago. There and finish the liberation of Donbass. But while it is difficult to talk about it, it is still not clear how things are near Donetsk. In order to pincer Slavyansk, you need to enter it from three sides at once. From the northwest - this is the Izyum group, in which I spent about a month. There progress is hard. There is serious opposition to us.

From the east, the troops of our Central Military District, which have already taken Krasny Liman, are moving towards Slavyansk.

And from the south, a grouping, which was released after the battle for Mariupol, should go.

But it's easy to draw arrows on the map. What does "from the south" really mean? It is first necessary to take Avdiivka - the most powerful fortified area near Donetsk. Behind him is a layered defense along the highway to Slavyansk - these are Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka.

It seems to me that the Ukrainian troops in the Donbass will still roll back to Slavyansk with Kramatorsk. And there will be a decisive battle.

- When the assault on Severodonetsk began, everything somehow went faster for us. Unlike Mariupol. How can this speed be explained? Is there a fracture?

- Near Lugansk from the very beginning everything went easier than near Donetsk. In the DPR, they immediately ran into the most fortified city of the entire Donbass - Mariupol. And in the LPR, cities were liberated almost without fighting. The Ukrainian military there were dumbfounded by our victorious pace. The cities were taken almost without artillery, they are whole, they now have electricity, gas, water, communication is already Luhansk cellular. When I arrived in Lugansk from Izyum, I was surprised: “Oh, wow, gasoline is at gas stations!”

And then the comrades-Ukrainians decided to resist. This is the city of Rubizhnoye, which is now half destroyed. Now - Severodonetsk. But all the same, I have a feeling that they have less forces and artillery in this direction. And they threw all their guns and missiles at Izyum. I have never experienced such artillery impact as on the Izyum Front. They brought everything in there.

Now why don't they run into Severodonetsk? I have a feeling they are broken. Firstly, this is the surrender of Azovstal. No matter how Ukrainian propaganda depicts this as an “evacuation”, everyone understands that this is captivity. And in parallel with it, such a good courage appeared, a working courage among the Russian forces. I correspond with the guys who are storming Severodonetsk, they say: “Listen, you can fight like that. We have both water and electricity here, even the Internet sometimes hatches. ”

And most importantly - we stopped trying to enter the cities in columns! Now they started to work normally - in small groups.

How did the Ukrainian military surprise us at first? We are accustomed to large-scale hostilities; in our country, if there are exercises, then the whole district, half the country, is alarmed. And the Ukrainians have been preparing for war for all these 8 years in small maneuverable groups. Our fighters found maps of exercises in their headquarters - they practiced everything that they just showed. A few years before our special operation, they already had Russian units marked on their maps that would go in their direction. And they knew how they would oppose us. Now this harmonious tactic is broken. They now have a very large shortage of professional military personnel.

- Were they beaten out?

- Knocked out. Now the ratio of mobilized and regular military at the forefront of Ukraine is 80% to 20%. And these are not the motivated battalions "Donbass", "Azov" or "Kraken" Kharkov, but the gray mass, which was driven under the threat of prison to the front and thrown under the tanks. What they cry about in their videos.

This does not mean that all of them are demoralized. What remains is artillery, which works clearly and accurately. And Western weapons that finish where they have not finished before. American 155-millimeter guns have already arrived.

But the infantry still makes the result. And the personnel infantry was knocked out from Ukraine! Mobilizers are able to hold only in shelters. And when it comes to direct combat, they immediately roll back.

Moreover, the Akhmat unit is advancing on Severodonetsk. It surprised me a lot. I thought there were only Chechens in it, but it turned out - people from all over the country. These guys are really great!

- Are they the ones who passed through the Special Forces Center?

- Through Gudermes. They specialize in urban combat. They drive the enemy around the city well.

But this does not mean that easy victories await us further, given how many people are sitting in Ukrainian garrisons. If American multiple rocket launchers - these HIMARS - are also fitted to them, it will be difficult. But I have a feeling that this will no longer be able to stop us. Well, maybe slow down a bit.

- Regarding imported weapons. I remember how Ukrainians raved about Javelins. Give us Javelins and that's it! Dali. It didn't really solve anything. And the Stingers didn't decide.

- Well, why didn't you decide? Techniques burned so much!

- I'm talking about something else. About the psychology of war. Kyiv, on the other hand, proves to its citizens: if we have a superweapon - a kind of "wunderwaffle" - then we will defeat Russia.

- I saw a Russian tank that was hit by four Javelins at once. And he was able to get out of the fight. But this does not mean that all tanks are so lucky. The advance of Russian troops near Izyum was stalled precisely because of this. Because of those same Ukrainian maneuverable groups - five people each with Javelins in forest plantations. They just have heaps of these weapons near every hut and every fishing line.

Someone told me: “The Javelin has as many as 250 pages of instructions! Until you read ... ”Listen, you can learn how to manage it in three minutes by watching a video.

- Regarding HIMARS, let's agree. Doesn't this cause shock and awe in ours? They are long-range, they hit up to 500 km.

- There is no shock and awe. Because even without HIMARS, Ukrainian artillery is heavily loaded - even with Soviet "Hurricanes" and "Grads". True, there is a feeling that they have a shortage of ammunition ... Previously, they fired "packages" of missiles, and now 1-2 missiles each ...

Well, you have to look at this HIMARS, how scary it is. I saw how, on the Izyum Front, Russian air defense officers (and I have been simply fascinated by our air defense over these months) learned how to kill missiles from both Hurricane and Smerch. They shot down 7 Tochka U missiles a day, which flew straight at us. They missed one only once, and that's because the Ukrainian rocket scientists are already cunning - they launch two missiles at the same time, while in our country it is recognized as one target.

I think our air defense will also deal with HIMARS missiles.

- What about drones? They talked a lot about the Bayraktars, which the Turks sold to the Ukrainians.

- "Bayraktars" - about nothing. This is a very convenient target for our air defense, they are shot down. They do not bring the harm that they demonstrated in Syria or Karabakh.

- And why did they bring such a result?

- There were no air defense systems sharpened for this. There are, and very successful ones. "Tors" and "Buks" knock it all down at once. That is, Bayraktars were not surprised. What can not be said about the American kamikaze drones Switchblade. They are very noisy. People run away from them. But for technology - an unpleasant thing.

And they have a lot of reconnaissance drones.

- How are we?

- We don't have many of them. But I'm looking at a narrow section of the front. And I see - two Orlan-10s and one Orlan-30, which aims Krasnopol high-precision ammunition with a laser, into two armies.

- Not fat.

Well, as long as they haven't been shot down, it's fine. Our SSOs (special operations forces. - Ed.) operate nearby, they have their own komikaze drones "Cuba". A little. As they say, "under our tasks." They are wooling these "Sherwood forests", knocking out Ukrainian sabotage groups.

Well, what we lack is copters. They appear through the efforts of volunteers. And we bought, brought to the Izyum front, and now I gave the guys who took Liman a couple of copters and one thermal imager ... Because they are shot down, they get lost, they are crushed by electronic warfare systems - electronic warfare. By the way, the electronic warfare works very powerfully in Ukraine. It happens that our "Orlan" flies and simply rests against the "wall". So, we urgently need to throw it there, they are hiding something behind this electronic warfare.

The Ukrainians also have very serious American AN / TPQ counter-battery systems.

- What kind of animal is this?

- This is a Hammer driving, on its trailer there is such a plank half a meter by a meter, like a mirror in the bathroom. She pinpoints where the artillery fire is coming from. And sends the coordinates. And at these coordinates they are already opening return fire. The response time is 10-15 minutes. That is, you fired, and after 10-15 minutes it starts to fall on you.

I saw how our artillery paratroopers worked in the Kyiv region. They had already received their lesson, and after the shot they turned faster than we could get to our car from them. You can't teach it, you have to feel it in your gut! We also have counter-battery systems - "Aistenok", "Zoo". But there should be more of them.

- Let's talk about heroes, symbols. You tried to create a legend of the heroes of Gostomel. Why didn't it work out?

- I do not agree that it did not work out. This is a legendary story - a landing operation that has no analogues in the last 70 years. It will still be included in textbooks, films will be made about it. Hope good.

- You don't like Russian cinema?

- What you! I love. I hope that this feat of the Russian landing will not be spoiled by the bureaucratic hand. But there is a global difference between us and Ukraine in the propaganda of their heroes. We have too much forbidden.

- Why?

- I do not know. We have smartphones banned so you don't find your positions. Ukrainian TikTok is littered with vids with their heroes, but we have zero. Well, maybe the guys in the DPR, LPR are filming something, but this is a drop in the ocean. With us you will come to shoot the guys, they always have the top button fastened, and more often their faces are covered.

- That's what I wanted to ask. Why can't you show faces?

- The only explanation is that they will threaten relatives. For three months now, my daughter and wife have been terrorized by calls and letters. Already used to it. Why should we be afraid of sofa Rambos who work for the Center for Information and Psychological Operations of Ukraine?

In the Great Patriotic War, each Levitan’s report began that the troops of such and such a front, under the command of such and such a general or major, were storming such and such. And it's a secret for us. Allegedly, the enemy will find out the staffing of the assault troops. As if it corresponds to this schedule ... Well, this is our inertia, no matter what happens. With this, it is easier for the people's militia of Donbass. They are not shy about open faces. It is impossible to be shy for 8 years in a row.

- The Chechen National Guard, it seems, is not shy about anything at all.

- It's true.

- And the feeling that one Akhmat battalion is fighting. And what are the rest doing?

- They act on the principle that we already have enough of everything. And fame (we don't need it, we do our job), and technology. We don't need anything from volunteers. Although during the Great Patriotic War, even collective farmers collected money for planes for the front ...

- And for tanks.

- Yes, for entire battalions of tanks!

- And the ritual question. So why don't they meet our army with flowers?

- Fear. On the other side, the terror machine is running. People who are pro-Russian, they are either imprisoned, or killed, or driven under the plinth. Eight years ago, they would have met with flowers and pies, I have no doubt. And now, when the most popular political articles in Ukraine are "complicity with separatism" and "high treason"... What kind of a state is this that wants to change so much?

And people disappear. Here is one priest twisted. They sent me a message a month and a half ago. And yesterday they said that he was buried. In a closed coffin. Why he died, no one explains.

- That is, there are death squads?

- who act on behalf of the state.

- Well, in Ukraine people were intimidated. And Donbass? People in ruined cities such as Rubizhne, Mariupol - how do they meet the Russian army, what do they say?

- I met people who said: “We will tolerate, you just bring it to the end. Because if you stop, they will come here again.” In general, people believe that we will rebuild everything, which will be even better. It's harder with the youth. You often catch sidelong glances at yourself. This is education in schools, where textbooks like "Russian-Ukrainian wars, from the XII century to the present." On the one hand, they are glad that they are not being mobilized into the Ukrainian troops now, but on the other hand... You will have to work with the youth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIBq1dkVrbA

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Ukraine artillery war on the eastern frontlines

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... llery-war/

https://newsprepare.com/index.php/2022/ ... rontlines/

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+ 5/26/22 Pentagon press briefing claims that there were 110 Russian BTG in the Ukraine. There were around 124 BTG (IIRC) at their highest point. Ukrainian General Staff claims that many of these BTG are degraded and merged together.

+Updated BBC RU count- 3,211 Russian dead corroborated by publicly available data as of June 3

https://zona.media/translate/2022/05/20/casualties_eng

DPR official casualty report 26 February – 2 June 2022: 1,986 killed, 8,199 wounded

LPR (no update yet aside from 600-500 KIA reported by Russians around April 4th).

https://ombudsman-dnr.ru/obzor-soczialn ... ya-2022-g/

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Of the June 3rd (3,211) BBC RU death count,

657 VDV, 154 Marines, 118 National Guard (eg. Chechen forces), 91 Spetznaz
24 warplane pilots and 10 helicopter pilots
Regular forces: 632 Riflemen, 217 tankers, 93 artillerymen