Soviet concepts present in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

[Gorque]

if the biased Orxy blog is correct, who is probably an agent of Ukrainian psych-ops- his blog appeared in the first days of the war with tons of photographs.

and...

Russian official reports are pure drivel. The dead alone just from the Moska are in the hundreds. Each T72 killed (see Oryx data) has a fair chance of a total crew (3) kill.

So, which is it, can we rely upon Oryx"s blog or not and if so, to what extent? 50%, 75%?


I'm just asking to get a rough approximation.

[Cult Icon]

"Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline."

https://news.yahoo.com/intelligence-rep ... 36886.html

This headline made it to ABC news tonight. I would be interested in reading the report. It is either accurate or it is an exaggeration designed to promote more foreign aid.

-----

According to the research by Military Balance 2021 (IISS), Ukraine's artillery forces, the core of their defensive power had:

ARTILLERY 1,818 (of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. MOR 120mm 340)
(4,260 in store: 122mm 2,000
2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 2,000: 1,000 2S3 Akatsiya; 850 2S5
Giatsint-S; 150 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 260 2S7 Pion)

Russians claim after 6/9

499 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,843 field artillery and mortars destroyed.

[Tom Peters]

if the biased Orxy blog is correct, who is probably an agent of Ukrainian psych-ops- his blog appeared in the first days of the war with tons of photographs.

and...

Russian official reports are pure drivel. The dead alone just from the Moska are in the hundreds. Each T72 killed (see Oryx data) has a fair chance of a total crew (3) kill.

So, which is it, can we rely upon Oryx"s blog or not and if so, to what extent? 50%, 75%?


I'm just asking to get a rough approximation.

Not sure if this is aimed at me or CultIcon.....

Oryx (and lostarmour, I am told) attempt to use photographic evidence and geolocation where possible to summarize the armor losses. This the best we can hope for unless the RU or UKR J-1 want to give us detailed loss info. I am told, by a moderator on defensetalk forums that the Oryx (pro-URK) and lostarmour (pro-RU) end up giving very close loss# for the UKR forces, which gives me hope the values are reasonably correct - at least for those pieces of armor that have been found. Recall the disclaimer on the Oryx page:

"This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available."

Actual losses will likely be more than what is listed for those reasons.

As for 50% ? 75% ? None of us knows, but we can appreciate the rigor by which Oryx is attempting to tally these losses.

Mad Dog

[Tom Peters]

"Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline."

https://news.yahoo.com/intelligence-rep ... 36886.html

This headline made it to ABC news tonight. I would be interested in reading the report. It is either accurate or it is an exaggeration designed to promote more foreign aid.

-----

According to the research by Military Balance 2021 (IISS), Ukraine's artillery forces, the core of their defensive power had:

ARTILLERY 1,818 (of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. MOR 120mm 340)
(4,260 in store: 122mm 2,000
2S1 Gvozdika; 152mm 2,000: 1,000 2S3 Akatsiya; 850 2S5
Giatsint-S; 150 2S19 Msta-S; 203mm 260 2S7 Pion)

Russians claim after 6/9

499 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,843 field artillery and mortars destroyed.

First off, assuming IISS is correct, UKR only had 354 MRLS. Yet the RU claim they destroyed 499 of them. Kind of suspect ? Same goes for tube arty.

I have no doubt the UKR are out-tubed and out-shot by the RU. I also have no doubt they are using whatever means they can to get more foreign aide. Until we can see the tally of artillery shell consumption, none of us knows for sure.

The battle for Severodonetsk is a battle on the RU terms, unlike just about all other battles so far. And yet, the RU still havnt taken it. Even worse, if/when the RU take Severodonetsk, it doesnt mean anything other than to Putin; a political shiny bauble by which he can try and claim some sort of victory, salvaged from the miserable wreck of a poorly planned, poorly supplied and poorly executed campaign.

Both sides are losing this war. It remains to be seen who will lose the most.

Mad Dog

[Gorque]

if the biased Orxy blog is correct, who is probably an agent of Ukrainian psych-ops- his blog appeared in the first days of the war with tons of photographs.

and...

Russian official reports are pure drivel. The dead alone just from the Moska are in the hundreds. Each T72 killed (see Oryx data) has a fair chance of a total crew (3) kill.

So, which is it, can we rely upon Oryx"s blog or not and if so, to what extent? 50%, 75%?


I'm just asking to get a rough approximation.

Not sure if this is aimed at me or CultIcon.....

Oryx (and lostarmour, I am told) attempt to use photographic evidence and geolocation where possible to summarize the armor losses. This the best we can hope for unless the RU or UKR J-1 want to give us detailed loss info. I am told, by a moderator on defensetalk forums that the Oryx (pro-URK) and lostarmour (pro-RU) end up giving very close loss# for the UKR forces, which gives me hope the values are reasonably correct - at least for those pieces of armor that have been found. Recall the disclaimer on the Oryx page:

"This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available."

Actual losses will likely be more than what is listed for those reasons.

As for 50% ? 75% ? None of us knows, but we can appreciate the rigor by which Oryx is attempting to tally these losses.

Mad Dog

Hi Tom:

Thank you for the clarification. Much appreciated!

[Cult Icon]

military adviser "Arestovych estimated to Feygyn that the daily numbers for Ukrainian casualties were more like “200 to 300 die, no less,” but that the figures fluctuate."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... O4QEO7C5SQ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych

[Cult Icon]

So, which is it, can we rely upon Oryx"s blog or not and if so, to what extent? 50%, 75%?

I suggest that whatever the number is now (last I checked Russian vehicle losses were 4000) it is not of strategic value so not worth paying much attention to. I think the Ukrainian losses are undercounted and the sources/authenticity of the images are questionable.

Russian Army 2021 IISS

MBT 2,840 operational (with 10,200 in storage: 7,000 T-72/T-72A/B; 3,000 T-80B/BV/U;
200 T-90)

RECCE 1,700. IFV 5,220. (8,500 in storage) APC 6,100+

ARTILLERY 4,684+ (of this Self-propelled 1,938. MRL 876+. MOR 1,540+)

(further 5,810 in storage)

Naval Infantry (Marines)

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 330
IFV 1,100. APC 400.
ARTILLERY 405 (of this SP 181. MRL 58. )

Airborne Forces
ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
MBT 160
IFV 130. APC • APC (T) 808.
ARTILLERY 600+

Border Guard Service

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
IFV/APC (W) 1,000 BMP/BTR
ARTILLERY 90

National Guard

ARMOURED FIGHTING VEHICLES
RECCE some BRDM-2A
IFV/APC (W) 1,650 BMP-2/BTR-70M/BTR-80/BTR82A/BTR-82AM
ARTILLERY 35

[Cult Icon]

IISS data for Ukraine posts 67 and 92 are in error. for artillery units in storage I accidently posted Russian numbers instead of Ukrainian ones. The recent statements about Ukrainian deaths also invalidate post 67. The IISS book give Ukraine as having no artillery reserves so their strengths end at 1818(of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. 340 MOR 120mm.).

Russian kill claims 6/12 are 508 installations of multiple launch rocket systems, 1870 field artillery pieces and mortars

[John Hilly]

military adviser "Arestovych estimated to Feygyn that the daily numbers for Ukrainian casualties were more like “200 to 300 die, no less,” but that the figures fluctuate."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... O4QEO7C5SQ

another increase lol. minimum 1800-1000 Ukrainian casualties a day. minimum 54,000-30,000 per month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych

His estimation was miss quoted. He meant Russian losses per day.

[Cult Icon]

That seems to be the case for WP, so I'll take 200 Ukrainian dead per day.

https://fakty.com.ua/en/ukraine/2022061 ... ijni-z-rf/

[Tom Peters]

So, which is it, can we rely upon Oryx"s blog or not and if so, to what extent? 50%, 75%?

I suggest that whatever the number is now (last I checked Russian vehicle losses were 4000) it is not of strategic value so not worth paying much attention to. I think the Ukrainian losses are undercounted and the sources/authenticity of the images are questionable.

Russian Army 2021 IISS

Rubbish. Your argument does not support itself. The very figures you used from IISS invalidate the RU MOD statements you also provide. Yet you continue to regurgitate the RU MOD statements as if they had any truth to them whatsoever. Again, RU MOD claims to have destroyed more UKR MRLS than IISS recognizes them as having. Can you reconcile those 2 sources ?

Your dismissal of Oryx is also suspect. Oryx is more than likely undercounting losses for both sides for the reasons stated on that webpage.

Mad Dog

[Tom Peters]

IISS data for Ukraine posts 67 and 92 are in error. for artillery units in storage I accidently posted Russian numbers instead of Ukrainian ones. The recent statements about Ukrainian deaths also invalidate post 67. The IISS book give Ukraine as having no artillery reserves so their strengths end at 1818(of these SP 607+. MRL 354. TOWED 515+. 340 MOR 120mm.).

Russian kill claims 6/12 are 508 installations of multiple launch rocket systems, 1870 field artillery pieces and mortars

Once again, dont you find it odd that the RU MOD claims to have destroyed more arty pieces of all types than the figures your provide from IISS ?

Mad Dog

[Tom Peters]

Whatever the losses for the UKR, it is undoubtedly higher for the RU. RU needs manpower very badly.

The RU forces in UKR are paying a price in casualties. We know this because:

Putin was asking for Syrians to come and fight
Putin is using the Wagner group
RU just raised the age limit to infinity (no age limit) for military service
Kanamat Botashev (63 year old retired air force general) was killed while flying a Su-25 in service
Large numbers of Colonels and Generals are dead, at a rate far higher than conventional combat rates would dictate

These are all confirmed by RU sources.

An interesting analysis of the RU/DPR/LPR manpower situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

RU may take Severodonetsk. To what end ? Its taken the RU (i.e., the second best army in UKR) a month of attacking Severodonetsk, after assembling whats left of their offensive capability, in a battle thats largely on the RU terms. [slow clap]

Mad Dog

[Cult Icon]

Recon drone and Soviet Krasnopol shells fired by Russian SP 152mm gun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnwJgzZj6Pg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasnopol_(weapon_system)

SP artillery platoon in a firing line

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MvfgfnSH3o

UAV used as forward observer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZx7CBSjaJU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nwMDOSzgmE

Strela-10 air defense system used against drones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coHmfhz2NU4&t=6s

[Gooner1]

Caesar in Ukraine



Meanwhile Russian reservists train on the D-20 Howitzer prior to deployment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0TcPNms7Sg


The countdown to HIMARS and GMLRS arriving at the front is perhaps just days.