What happens to Libya if Benny the Moose stays neutral?

[Princess Perfume]

Libya was thinly and spasely populated, and presumably the migration program continues quickly. It is likely Libya ends up with an Italian majority or plurality. As brutal as the British were against the Mau Mau, they were still a democracy. Italy will be even more brutal if Nasser etc. tries something stupid, which they probably will. There is also no guarantee that Mussolini eventual death will be followed by a democratic regime. Yes, there is Spain, but not every country is Spain.

[Carl Schwamberger]

What were the actual numbers for immigrants and existing population of Lybia in that era? The only thing I have is a lecture note describing the expectation for Italian migration to Lybia unfulfilled. The professor remarked given the choice Italians chose New York over Benghazi. Over four million Italians migrated to the US 1900-1950. How many migrated to Lybia the same decades?

[Kingfish]

The question I would ask is why?
Even the most resourceful and determined settler would find it very difficult.

[CogCalgary]

Libya was thinly and spasely populated, and presumably the migration program continues quickly. It is likely Libya ends up with an Italian majority or plurality. As brutal as the British were against the Mau Mau, they were still a democracy. Italy will be even more brutal if Nasser etc. tries something stupid, which they probably will. There is also no guarantee that Mussolini eventual death will be followed by a democratic regime. Yes, there is Spain, but not every country is Spain.

A democracy?AFAIK only Kenyans with a Loyalty Certificate had any real rights.Somebody correct me if I am wrong please.

[Aber]

Over four million Italians migrated to the US 1900-1950. How many migrated to Lybia the same decades?

c100k

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Libya

[Carl Schwamberger]

If Lybia remains a Italian colony long enough for the oil to be exploited, then maybe Italy gains some traction in terms of immigration settlement.

[nuyt]

The various wiki pages give numbers of 110-150.000 for 1939 (possibly the latter includes Italian troops) out of a total population of 900.000. The Fourth Shore page mentions an anticipated number of 500.000 Italians for the 1960s (that's still planning without oil).
At least another 90.000 Italians lived in Tunisia, that was briefly administered from Libya during WW2.
If you don't mind ruthless campaigns of ethnic cleansing in which tens of thousands of locals were massacred and if you can live with the transfer of tens of thousands poor Italian peasants scratching a living out of growing olive trees and if you are fond of fascist town planning and architecture, no doubt it would have been a fantastic place to find good pizza and pasta...

[Princess Perfume]

Given the kind of Piers Morgan people that Nasser et al were *like*, I will NOT feel sorry for anything bad or horrific inflicted by a Benny Italy that sat out WWII (or more likely, its allies) on the Arab LEADERSHIP who would solely control whatever the Arab response to a surviving Mussolini would be. It's the same reason as i have little time for "Nakba" given my real world Jewish friends and the murderous statements (which were made just after the Hitlerite atrocities) by the Arab LEADERSHIP in 1947-48.

[jbroshot]

This British War Office intelligence report

https://archive.org/details/libya-military-report

Gives the population "according to the latest figures obtainable" as "approximately 900,000. Over 50,000 are Europeans, the rest are "natives". And, "the European element is composed of Italian, English, French and Greek subjects".

The report is from 1936 but has been updated to 1938

[nuyt]

OK, let's suppose fascist Italy emerges from WW2 unscathed, with a huge military, navy and air force - that btw has not been tested. What are its challenges?

Internally rebellion is smouldering. Those communist partisans in OTL did not come out of nowhere and the potential is still there in this scenario. There was opposition. Benny has to watch his back and without a war to unite the people he has only his Blackshirts to control his cities.

Internationally Fascist Italy has more problems than Franco Spain. It is illegally occupying Ethiopia and the new UN will demand Italy's withdrawal. Besides Libya, fascist Italy also holds Eritrea and Somalia. Italy faces insurrection not just at home, but also in Libya, Eritrea , Somalia and, if not abandoned, Ethiopia. There is more to consider. What will happen to the territories the Italians hold in Greece (Dodecanese) and Yugoslavia (Dalmatia) since the 20s? They invaded Albania early 1939 and, guess what, the locals want their country back. Fascist Italy will face a massive onslaught after WW2!

Independent Egypt will no doubt be a refuge for nationalist Libyans and it will house the HQ of the Peoples Front for the Liberation of Libya. Guerilla war rages all through southern Libya and occasionally that mighty fine pizza place in Tripoli gets bombed and olive orchards burn in Cyrenaeca. And the Soviets will support the PFLL too. And later the Chinese. And the left in the West, influencing the SPD in Germany, Labour in the UK and the PS in France to squeeze Benito.

Even when Benny does all the right things: abandoning Ethiopia and Albania, trading the Greek islands for eternal friendship with Greece, same with Zadar, Rijeka, etc with Belgrad, it will still cling in vain to the remaining three African possessions .

The fate of Italian Libya, no matter how many settlers will be sent or how many conscripts be deployed (mostly to carry their weapon in disgust like the Portuguese did), will be similar to that of French Algeria (with its million strong French/Spanish minority), Portuguese Africa (with at least half a million PTs by the 1970s) or any other African colony.

An Italian Libya will be unsustainable. And when it all collapses, the Italians will run like hell, just like the pied noirs and the Portuguese...

[nuyt]

Short extra.

Although I think any comparison of a post war fascist Italian Libya with Israel is completely out of line, the two states might be informally cooperating against Nasser's Egypt as you imply. But even if the UK, France and Israel in their 1956 attack on Egypt are joined by Fascist Italy, the Suez war will still be lost by them.

The US will not back it.

[nuyt]

This British War Office intelligence report

https://archive.org/details/libya-military-report

Gives the population "according to the latest figures obtainable" as "approximately 900,000. Over 50,000 are Europeans, the rest are "natives". And, "the European element is composed of Italian, English, French and Greek subjects".

The report is from 1936 but has been updated to 1938

Hi Jim, the next page of the report mentions the 110.000.

[jbroshot]

Nuyt

Thanks!

I am old and forgetful. I overlook details (like turning from page 22 to page 23 in the report). Its one of the reasons I retired.

[Princess Perfume]

OK, let's suppose fascist Italy emerges from WW2 unscathed, with a huge military, navy and air force - that btw has not been tested. What are its challenges?

Internally rebellion is smouldering. Those communist partisans in OTL did not come out of nowhere and the potential is still there in this scenario. There was opposition. Benny has to watch his back and without a war to unite the people he has only his Blackshirts to control his cities.

Internationally Fascist Italy has more problems than Franco Spain. It is illegally occupying Ethiopia and the new UN will demand Italy's withdrawal. Besides Libya, fascist Italy also holds Eritrea and Somalia. Italy faces insurrection not just at home, but also in Libya, Eritrea , Somalia and, if not abandoned, Ethiopia. There is more to consider. What will happen to the territories the Italians hold in Greece (Dodecanese) and Yugoslavia (Dalmatia) since the 20s? They invaded Albania early 1939 and, guess what, the locals want their country back. Fascist Italy will face a massive onslaught after WW2!

Independent Egypt will no doubt be a refuge for nationalist Libyans and it will house the HQ of the Peoples Front for the Liberation of Libya. Guerilla war rages all through southern Libya and occasionally that mighty fine pizza place in Tripoli gets bombed and olive orchards burn in Cyrenaeca. And the Soviets will support the PFLL too. And later the Chinese. And the left in the West, influencing the SPD in Germany, Labour in the UK and the PS in France to squeeze Benito.

Even when Benny does all the right things: abandoning Ethiopia and Albania, trading the Greek islands for eternal friendship with Greece, same with Zadar, Rijeka, etc with Belgrad, it will still cling in vain to the remaining three African possessions .

The fate of Italian Libya, no matter how many settlers will be sent or how many conscripts be deployed (mostly to carry their weapon in disgust like the Portuguese did), will be similar to that of French Algeria (with its million strong French/Spanish minority), Portuguese Africa (with at least half a million PTs by the 1970s) or any other African colony.

An Italian Libya will be unsustainable. And when it all collapses, the Italians will run like hell, just like the pied noirs and the Portuguese...

Fantasy. Complete and total fantasy. Arabs are not going to kick arse. Nor are Africans, Albanians etc. The Dodecanese was not "really" Greek and was not "booty" - Italy acquired it through a legitimate treaty.

It's actually very hard to fight an enemy that is willng to torture and kill in order to stop you. The recent protestors in Burma knew this which is why they were carrying placards begging for the USA to intervene - peace and non-violence achieves precisely nothing without the backup threat of sending in the Marines.

[Terry Duncan]

A non-content post likely to lead to flaming was removed by this moderator.

Terry