Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

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Aida1
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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 07:59

Peter89 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 07:06
Gooner1 wrote:
23 Aug 2022 16:48
Peter89 wrote:
22 Aug 2022 05:14
I have no doubt if Russia committed fully, she could crush Ukraine. However, I think every belligerent has a cookbook with many stages of conflict escalation, mostly in response of what the other is doing. The number and equipment of troops required to crush the Ukrainian army and cover many hundred of kilometers rapidly is (I believe) enough to prompt a new level of response by the NATO. This third phase of operations, with which I agree will happen some time, would aim to collapse Ukrainian military resistance; but only mop-up units will arrive to the Western border of Ukraine.
The fact that Russia has not gone for full mobilisation, political consequences of which are probably uppermost in Putin's mind, is also the reason we are not seeing Western made tanks and aircraft in Ukraine. Yet.

Given that the Russian army is weaker now than in February and the Ukrainian army is assuredly stronger, I fail to understand the optimism you and Cult Icon are showing for Russias possible 'third phase' of operations.
A full mobilization of Russia is markedly different than Western arm deliveries to Ukraine.

A full mobilization and thus fielding an army would put enormous strain on the Russian economy, especially if Ukraine fails to collapse swiftly. And even if Ukraine collapses swiftly, a fully mobilized army and an economy geared up for war can not be de-mobilized and put back to civilian production by a snap of a finger.

Also the Western response would be appropriate, thus every country neighbouring Ukraine would field their armies (which are professional armies) and increase help to Ukraine.

Russia simply can not afford a long, drawn-out conflict at full mobilization, and also can not afford a full-scale economic or military stand-off with the Western powers. If and when the Russian forces hammered the Ukrainian forces down, the strike at Kiev and Odessa has to be swift and decisive, but also the least threatening to the West. If Russian forces advanced to the western border of Ukraine in strength, the consequences might prove fatal for them.
Putin has given up on overrunning the Ukraine. That has become impossible thanks to western military support. The Ukraine is much stronger now. Only Cult Icon who has not evolved beyond 1945 thinks otherwise. A blind admiror of the russian army who believes it can never fail and ignores any information to the contrary. Thinks himself a military expert despite having zero experience but is not.

mezsat2
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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by mezsat2 » 24 Aug 2022 10:28

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Aug 2022 16:56
The Russian Strategic offensive will take place at earliest (Sept) and more likely in October or November as they rebuild/prepare units in behind the front in the Ukraine and in Russia.

In the area of infantryman, their most pressing shortage, they have been conducting a recruitment drive since the spring for volunteers from the conscript class of 2021-2022, reservists (Russia has 2 million, of which 10% are active in the American sense), Chechens, and volunteers of literally any age group. There is also the question of the return of wounded Russian professional troops that were injured early in the war. Also, there is conscription and gathering up of volunteers of Ukrainians in the occupied territories.
And what form of "Strategic Offensive" will this be? Russian tanks are rolling coffins with all the ATGMs in Ukrainian hands. Their air force is decimated to the point it can only carry out limited strikes with dumb bombs and Soviet era cruise missiles. The Black Sea Fleet is paralyzed by Neptunes, Harpoons, and mines.

Yes, Russian artillery has been superior to this point, but Ukraine is gradually catching up- especially in terms of guided munitions.

The sole "bright spot" I can see for Putin is that Ukraine has yet to form a large offensive formation capable of driving the Russians out of their established positions- e.g. a panzerarmee. They're still what one might consider a large guerilla force- heavily armed, but only capable of "sticking their finger in the dike" at critical points.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Aug 2022 12:42

This is what I mean about propaganda- US/NATO/Ukrainian.

There are Russian setbacks but they are comparably minor to what the Ukrainians are experiencing. The Russian setbacks are extremely exaggerated in the media, typically by 'analysts'/journalists that don't understand the operational picture of the war. Russians have exponential firepower superiority (Air and artillery) and large reserves of vehicles that has gave them initiative for half a year despite having so few infantry troops, and heavy losses in vehicles.

It is notable that the Ukrainians have almost no counterattacks outside of the Zelensky line. I think they only counterattacked once or twice since 7/5! And the Russians are attacking them with separatist militias that on paper are outnumbered by them.

The Russians will refit, and then continue their typical 'attack style' based on their doctrinal manuals of annihilation by artillery and mopping up with infantry & tanks. They will not do a 'panzer drive' like the first weeks of the war. They have not repeated their mistakes.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Aug 2022 12:55

Ukraine is unlikely to manifest a powerful assault army for a Kherson "counteroffensive" as their army is now a huge militia, western weapons flows are too low in heavy weapons-particularly in artillery, and they are taking very high losses, both human and material. Having very small numbers of wunderwaffe looks good in the media but is not war winning. This too is propaganda.

Following a day to day operational picture will reveal that their counterattack ability has been low since April, and very low since May. If their professional army could not organize powerful counterstrikes, their militia army has a snowball's chance in hell. Maybe they will surprise us but I doubt it.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Aug 2022 13:38

Russian units in the rear in the Donbass 8/14 north to south Part 2, Siversk down to Toretsk- The "Zelensky Line" :

40th Eng (Sapper), 41st CAA
305th Artillery Brigade, 5th CAA
141st SMR Kadyrov
Unknown Chechen National Guard battalion
30th Artillery Brigade, 36th CAA
61st NIB, North Fleet
Kolchuga Group, 1st AC (Separatist)
Horlivka Tactical Group, 1st AC (Separatist)

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Aug 2022 14:02

Peter89 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 07:06
Russia simply can not afford a long, drawn-out conflict at full mobilization, and also can not afford a full-scale economic or military stand-off with the Western powers.
Partial or full mobilization would count as a strategic loss for Russia. Not surprisingly the mobilization rumors started in Ukrainian intelligence in March 2022 (plus 'giant Russian death'), the war of words/rumors strikes a Russian sore point.

The 2nd Chechen War was discussed earlier. I think this (And the Donbass War, war in Georgia) and Putin's experiences are significant and could provide insights to what could happen going forward. Also in general the Russian problems with war wounded, PTSD since the war in Afghanistan.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Aug 2022 14:25

Cult Icon wrote:
23 Aug 2022 20:23
T
I read Pentagon transcripts from time to time since the beginning of the war; I consider that stuff to be a real mine field. A mixture of facts and lies, like the Russian MOD and the Ukrainian General Staff. The only Russian military death rate I am willing to believe is the BBC's count from social media as a minimum, and the DRP/LRP reported as a minimum. Of course the real number is higher.
I doubt even the BBC puts much faith in the BBC numbers. They are a global media network without the time or indeed the inclination to get involved in such detail nitty-gritty. Typically they would use the data of those who specialise. Such as 'Russian Officers Killed in Ukraine'
https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine?ref ... r%5Eauthor

Image
It doesn't matter though, in the coming months there will be a test to see if the small heavy armed professional army + proxy forces can consume the much larger but poorly equipped conscript- militia army (with fake unit names) for the history books for decades to come.
Stretching the definition of the word to call the Russian army professional ...

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 15:20

Cult Icon wrote:
24 Aug 2022 12:55
Ukraine is unlikely to manifest a powerful assault army for a Kherson "counteroffensive" as their army is now a huge militia, western weapons flows are too low in heavy weapons-particularly in artillery, and they are taking very high losses, both human and material. Having very small numbers of wunderwaffe looks good in the media but is not war winning. This too is propaganda.

Following a day to day operational picture will reveal that their counterattack ability has been low since April, and very low since May. If their professional army could not organize powerful counterstrikes, their militia army has a snowball's chance in hell. Maybe they will surprise us but I doubt it.
The ukrainian so-called militia army is far more motivated than your beloved Russian professional army which was beaten badly. A well armed very motivated ukrainian territorial is far superior to incompetent non motivated Russian professionals. When the so-called militiaman fires a javelin or any other ATGM it kills a tank. HIMARs and other western weapons are making a difference and are hurting the russian army badly. You are blind to that because of your prejudices.
The west could choose to arm the ukranian army for offensive operations too.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 15:25

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 14:25
Cult Icon wrote:
23 Aug 2022 20:23



It doesn't matter though, in the coming months there will be a test to see if the small heavy armed professional army + proxy forces can consume the much larger but poorly equipped conscript- militia army (with fake unit names) for the history books for decades to come.
Stretching the definition of the word to call the Russian army professional ...
Cult Icon lives mentally in ww2 and thinks the ukrainian army is the volkssturm. 😂😂 Hardly but he is blind to that. And the russian army is incompetent but he cannot accept that either.

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Aida1
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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 15:31

Cult Icon wrote:
24 Aug 2022 12:42
This is what I mean about propaganda- US/NATO/Ukrainian.

There are Russian setbacks but they are comparably minor to what the Ukrainians are experiencing. The Russian setbacks are extremely exaggerated in the media, typically by 'analysts'/journalists that don't understand the operational picture of the war. Russians have exponential firepower superiority (Air and artillery) and large reserves of vehicles that has gave them initiative for half a year despite having so few infantry troops, and heavy losses in vehicles.

It is notable that the Ukrainians have almost no counterattacks outside of the Zelensky line. I think they only counterattacked once or twice since 7/5! And the Russians are attacking them with separatist militias that on paper are outnumbered by them.

The Russians will refit, and then continue their typical 'attack style' based on their doctrinal manuals of annihilation by artillery and mopping up with infantry & tanks. They will not do a 'panzer drive' like the first weeks of the war. They have not repeated their mistakes.
What a load of nonsense. The russian army was beating badly and is now reduced to obtaining a secondary objective by inching forward as Russia lacks the manpower to do anything else.
You are continuously copypasting the propaganda of an autocratic country and disbelieve anything that comes from free western media. Anything you say flies in the face of what serious military experts say. You are not a military expert, just a blind lover of Russia.

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Aida1
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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 15:32

mezsat2 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 10:28
Cult Icon wrote:
23 Aug 2022 16:56
The Russian Strategic offensive will take place at earliest (Sept) and more likely in October or November as they rebuild/prepare units in behind the front in the Ukraine and in Russia.

In the area of infantryman, their most pressing shortage, they have been conducting a recruitment drive since the spring for volunteers from the conscript class of 2021-2022, reservists (Russia has 2 million, of which 10% are active in the American sense), Chechens, and volunteers of literally any age group. There is also the question of the return of wounded Russian professional troops that were injured early in the war. Also, there is conscription and gathering up of volunteers of Ukrainians in the occupied territories.
And what form of "Strategic Offensive" will this be? Russian tanks are rolling coffins with all the ATGMs in Ukrainian hands. Their air force is decimated to the point it can only carry out limited strikes with dumb bombs and Soviet era cruise missiles. The Black Sea Fleet is paralyzed by Neptunes, Harpoons, and mines.

Yes, Russian artillery has been superior to this point, but Ukraine is gradually catching up- especially in terms of guided munitions.

The sole "bright spot" I can see for Putin is that Ukraine has yet to form a large offensive formation capable of driving the Russians out of their established positions- e.g. a panzerarmee. They're still what one might consider a large guerilla force- heavily armed, but only capable of "sticking their finger in the dike" at critical points.
Exactly but the likes of Cult Icon are blind to that.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Peter89 » 24 Aug 2022 17:20

We could try to refrain from insults and personal comments for a change.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Aug 2022 18:36

Cult Icon wrote:
24 Aug 2022 12:42
The Russians will refit, and then continue their typical 'attack style' based on their doctrinal manuals of annihilation by artillery and mopping up with infantry & tanks. They will not do a 'panzer drive' like the first weeks of the war. They have not repeated their mistakes.
Image

Black line - Russian front line July 10th
Red line - Russian front line August 14th

Expending years of artillery shell production to advance a few hundred yards is in no-ones military doctrine.

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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Michael Kenny » 24 Aug 2022 18:40

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 18:36


Image

Black line - Russian front line July 10th
Red line - Russian front line August 14th
Is there a corresponding schematic for Feb 24 to Aug 24?

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Aida1
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Re: Henry Kissinger on Russia and Ukraine

Post by Aida1 » 24 Aug 2022 18:45

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Aug 2022 18:36
Cult Icon wrote:
24 Aug 2022 12:42
The Russians will refit, and then continue their typical 'attack style' based on their doctrinal manuals of annihilation by artillery and mopping up with infantry & tanks. They will not do a 'panzer drive' like the first weeks of the war. They have not repeated their mistakes.
Image

Black line - Russian front line July 10th
Red line - Russian front line August 14th

Expending years of artillery shell production to advance a few hundred yards is in no-ones military doctrine.
An exercise in futility and shows how bad the russian army is doing.

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