news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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Gooner1
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 27 Oct 2022 21:23

Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:01

These are a welcome reprieve from the nonstop river of Ukrainian victories. :lol:
FTFY :milwink:

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peeved
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 27 Oct 2022 21:36

Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:01
These are from Russian news.
Meaning not verifiable from dependable sources.
Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:01
They show what the inside of their training camps look like for reservists.
They claim to show what the inside of their training camps look like for supposed reservists.
Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:01
These are a welcome reprieve from the nonstop river of Ukrainian propaganda. :lol:
For the types who would welcome a non-stop shit creek of Nazi Ruffian propaganda.

Markus

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peeved
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 27 Oct 2022 21:40

Westphalia1812 wrote:
27 Oct 2022 18:57
Gooner1 wrote:
27 Oct 2022 18:53
These propaganda pics of the Russian military really have little to do with 'news from the Russo-Ukraine Front' :roll:
At one point or another they are gonna be send into the storm...
Assuming that they depict actual mobilized Orcs off to the front and not some happy media whores in Putinkin villages.

Markus

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 28 Oct 2022 00:01

Some possibilities:

-Second invasion would be much better planned as the first was planned as a coup de main operation that degenerated into a war.

-Russians create a two-tier system (regular and reservist) with new reservist units created on the model of the 3rd and the currently developing 4th Army Corps. The reservist dominated units would be more defensive in orientation. The regulars would be more offensive in orientation. Already in this war the Russians have equipped and trained Separatist regiments, brigades and PMC motorized rifle regiments and given them a lot of heavy equipment. So they could feasibly build entirely new reservist dominated units around cadres peeled off of regular Russian army formations.

-Regardless, it is likely that the up and down cycle (135-85 BTG) that plagued the Russian army in the summer/spring would end, requiring far less rotation of units as their reservist pool is now plentiful and can continuously refill infantry units. Likewise, unlike the anti-Russian propaganda if they manage to restore thousands of armored vehicles from storage, they could maintain more stability in vehicle strengths and the now strong and plentiful infantry forces would form a shield around their tanks and IFVs, dramatically lowering Ukrainian anti-armored vehicle power to a low percentage of what they were. Meaning that the Russians would be maintaining a large armored force continuously.

-When this happens Ukraine's strategic offensive will end and the Russians will retake the initiative.

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peeved
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 28 Oct 2022 06:49

Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
-Russians create a two-tier system (regular and reservist) with new reservist units created on the model of the 3rd and the currently developing 4th Army Corps.
Wasn't the model of the Orcs' original 3rd Army Corps based on fast abandonment of equipment and even faster running when faced with Ukrainian troops?

Markus

mezsat2
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by mezsat2 » 28 Oct 2022 09:48

peeved wrote:
28 Oct 2022 06:49
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
-Russians create a two-tier system (regular and reservist) with new reservist units created on the model of the 3rd and the currently developing 4th Army Corps.
Wasn't the model of the Orcs' original 3rd Army Corps based on fast abandonment of equipment and even faster running when faced with Ukrainian troops?

Markus
The "regulars" are already burning through T-62s. What will the reservists use? What about the air force? They still won't venture far into Ukrainian airspace and are proven to be using Soviet era SAMs and anti-ship missiles in ground attack missions. Does Vlad just have all this stuff stashed somewhere waiting for the opportunity to deploy it? You can't manufacture high-tech weapons in rapid fashion.

All I see him doing is trying to loot more and more equipment from Iran and North Korea- but then someone will need to backfill their stuff. More or less like the US is going to have to backfill half of Europe's weaponry. It will take years, though.

The only thing Russia can do in a rapid fashion is to fabricate more and more artillery pieces and shells for wild salvos into civilians- assuming they don't run out of trucks to tow them. They still don't understand they're fighting a more or less hybridized insurgency war. There are no concentrations of Ukrainian forces large enough worth shelling (even if they could locate them), and they have no offensive forces capable of driving through to critical areas of the country because of the efficacy of modern MANPADs and ATGMs.

Again, their best option is to completely withdraw and try to negotiate a semi-neutrality/independence of Crimea where citizens of both countries can come and go at their leisure. The Donbas is wrecked for decades to come, anyway. Who will pay to restore it?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 28 Oct 2022 12:35

Looking into my notes on 8/14 the Russians deployed the following separatist units. I am still out of date:

6 Separatist tank companies
7 Mechanized infantry brigades
9 Mechanized infantry regiments/battalions
2 Mechanized infantry companies
6 motorized companies

Possible Order of battle of 3rd Army Corps. The majority of personnel were volunteers (young and middle aged) and volunteer reservists from Russia. It is not 'BTG' but possibly an "O" division. Elements arrived at the end of August and it has been deployed defensively since then. Equipped with heavy SP artillery, T-80, T-90, Pantsir, S-400, etc.

Image

as of 10/28 Wagner PMC has expanded beyond the collection of motorized rifle regiments detected in August. Recruitment ads for this PMC went viral recently.

ISW 10/28:
Wagner Group is recruiting soldiers to form and or replenish the crews of the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems, the S-300 air defense system, helicopters and fixed-wing attack aircraft, and electronic warfare specialists.[36] The Wagner Group is not known for independently operating combat aircraft, but it could begin to do so as the Russian military grows increasingly reliant on Wagner forces. Russian sources and the BBC confirmed the existence of at least one Wagner aviation detachment that flew Su-25 aircraft operating in eastern Ukraine in May 2022.[37] Wagner elements reportedly used a French light transport helicopter in operations in the Central African Republic in 2021.[38]

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by johnwilliamhunter » 28 Oct 2022 15:36

Officially from Russia: "The set task of 300,000 people has been completed, 82,000 reservists have been sent to the NVO zone, and another 218 are undergoing training. Military registration and enlistment offices will continue to recruit volunteers. 13,000 people voluntarily went to the NWO zone."

Not sure if it means another 95,000 soldiers are already at the front or if they are still training in the front zone.

EDIT: further clarification: "82,000 people are currently in the SMO zone, of which 41,000 are operating as part of units."

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 16:36

mezsat2 wrote:
27 Oct 2022 09:30
Tom Peters wrote:
27 Oct 2022 01:34
500,000 men mobilized ?

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/2 ... anddrafted

An interesting analysis of marriages after the mass conscription. They claim the data suggests that almost 500,000 have been conscripted recently, not the oft quoted 300,000.

This puts the total # of young people (mostly men) removed from the civilian economy at about 1 million (conscripted and escaped RU).

Mad Dog
I don't think these conscripts will have many reservations in surrendering to Ukraine. They're not like the Einsatzgruppen or SS. That's why most didn't surrender at Stalingrad- they knew it would mean certain death.
Poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led, and poorly motivated RU soldiers arent going to last long. Surrender is preferable to freezing to death in a foreign country when you have no winter clothing.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 16:38

Westphalia1812 wrote:
27 Oct 2022 18:57
Gooner1 wrote:
27 Oct 2022 18:53
These propaganda pics of the Russian military really have little to do with 'news from the Russo-Ukraine Front' :roll:
At one point or another they are gonna be send into the storm...Its like saying the training of 352nd infantry had nothing to do with Ohama
I suspect the units in training will not be taking the equipment with them........

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 16:39

Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:01
These are from Russian news. They show what the inside of their training camps look like for reservists.

These are a welcome reprieve from the nonstop river of Ukrainian propaganda. :lol:
Why do you keep using the term "reservists". These are conscripts, not people with prior training. Definitely not like the US National Guard.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 16:41

Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 19:07
500,000 mobilized?

So 1,000 new infantry battalions? :lol:

Assuming its actually 500,000, that doesnt translate to that many in the trenches, unless the RU command is exceptionally stupid. Stupid-er than normal.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 16:45

Cult Icon wrote:
27 Oct 2022 21:13
The Russian army deployed, at max around 130 +'Battalion tactical groups' in this war. I don't recall the total number of BTGs claimed by the pentagon but it is IIRC over 170.

Typically, one Russian brigade can draw 3 of them out of its organization, each with the Western equivalent of a reinforced company of mechanized infantry. Russian artillery and higher skilled functions in the units are staffed by professional and contract troops while the infantry is the bottom of the barrel.

Now that they have the reservists activated, by doctrine each brigade should have 3 infantry battalions instead of 1 small battalion.

Overall they do not have enough units to closely integrate such a number of reservists and volunteers as infantry battalions at one time. Let's say that they deploy 130 infantry battalions- that is around 100,000 reservists/volunteers. Perhaps an army at max with 300,000 in the Ukraine itself, not including PMC, National Guard, and the Separatists.

Additional personnel would have be deployed as a 4th or perhaps! even a 5th attached battalion. It remains to be seen how the Russians plan on organizing and deploying their new army.
Conscripts. Say it with me...."Conscripts".

A RU brigade command cannot adequately simultaneously command 3 btl., much less 4 or 5. Many of these conscripts will be used as labor hauling supplies around. Those are the lucky ones.

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 28 Oct 2022 16:58

johnwilliamhunter wrote:
28 Oct 2022 15:36

EDIT: further clarification: "82,000 people are currently in the SMO zone, of which 41,000 are operating as part of units."
Pretty interesting to see the details on this and future implications- what percentage of the reservists are training behind the front with combat schools set up by units (like in WW2) or they are already holding the frontline. I have also heard that the Russians have a mandatory 2-month training for reservists, it would be interesting to see what it involves and whether or not it is fully implemented.

In time the frontline will become similar to that held by their opponent- populated with the people's army.

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 28 Oct 2022 17:00

Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
Some possibilities:

-Second invasion would be much better planned as the first was planned as a coup de main operation that degenerated into a war.
Thats a pretty large assumption given past history.
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
-Russians create a two-tier system (regular and reservist) with new reservist units created on the model of the 3rd and the currently developing 4th Army Corps.
Considering the 3rd Corps already fucked off into the great never-mind, I would think the soon to be formed 4th Corps should shoot for a higher purpose.
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
The reservist dominated units would be more defensive in orientation. The regulars would be more offensive in orientation. Already in this war the Russians have equipped and trained Separatist regiments, brigades and PMC motorized rifle regiments and given them a lot of heavy equipment. So they could feasibly build entirely new reservist dominated units around cadres peeled off of regular Russian army formations.
Comrade Putin has graciously donated the finest steel helmets , Mosin-Nagants and T-62 that Ru can afford to the patsys of the DPR/LPR. Not that there are any of those guys left. DPR claims they have suffered about 70% losses of their original forces.
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
-Regardless, it is likely that the up and down cycle (135-85 BTG) that plagued the Russian army in the summer/spring would end, requiring far less rotation of units as their reservist pool is now plentiful and can continuously refill infantry units.
How can you come to this conclusion ? Will Putin magically drum up enough command staffs to create many new BTG ? Of course not.

Not reservists. Conscripts.
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
Likewise, unlike the anti-Russian propaganda if they manage to restore thousands of armored vehicles from storage
Oh sure, thats going really, well given that the latest contract with the RU factories is to refurb 800 T-62....in 3 years. Thats not even 300 shitty T-62 per year. Not a good sign from the RU perspective.
Cult Icon wrote:
28 Oct 2022 00:01
-When this happens Ukraine's strategic offensive will end and the Russians will retake the initiative.
What UKR strategic offensive ? There hasnt been one. There isnt one going on now. Just probing and fixing attacks.

More conscripts isnt going to end the war. Its just going to drag it out.

Mad Dog

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