news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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Peter89
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Peter89 » 29 Oct 2022 14:29

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 13:54
There is a conspiracy theory that the withdrawal from Kharkiv was a '4D' chess move by Putin/MOD to anger the Russian people and get the country on mobilization and war footing.
I very seriously doubt it, because the diplomatic and economic consequences outweighed any possible gains in domestic politics.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 29 Oct 2022 14:35

johnwilliamhunter wrote:
29 Oct 2022 08:59
Tom Peters wrote:
28 Oct 2022 17:04

Well, Vlad does have a stash of T-55 waiting to be used.
Still has a stash of T-90Ms too, of which Ukraine are yet to burn a single one.
Wrong. RU has lost (at least) 25 T-90A and 5 T-90M, one of which was captured. Lots of interior shots of that last one.

If RU had many T-90 in reserve they wouldnt be rebuilding T-62.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 29 Oct 2022 14:37

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 13:54
There is a conspiracy theory that the withdrawal from Kharkiv was a '4D' chess move by Putin/MOD to anger the Russian people and get the country on mobilization and war footing.
The RU MOD cant even play checkers. Thinking that they can play chess is hugely optimistic given the events of the last 8 months.

Mad Dog

Peter89
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Peter89 » 29 Oct 2022 14:39

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 13:00
The Ukrainian offensive is still stalled. It is evident that Ukraine does not have enough capable troops. Most of their army is just good for static defense.

Either they are saving up what they have left or their offensive phase was really just 5 weeks after all.

If they do not achieve more operational results then the war is lost, their only hope for victory is a political one, like the victory of the communists over the US in Vietnam. More 'Tet offensives', and turmoil over mobilization in Russia.
Arguably the offensive achieved its non-military goals, but it was not, and could not be a war-ending move.

Judging by the units participating in the offensives, I am not sure anymore, because territorial defense forces undertook offensive actions. If proper force ratio can be achieved, even second-rate Ukrainian units can be victorious against (also not the best) Russian forces.

I would also advise caution concerning the "exhausted Ukrainians". For me it sounds like "Russia is on its last leg" or "Europe will freeze and starve during winter". Because it is also possible that Ukrainian forces halted to build up defenses for the inevitable Russian offensive. If that offensive fails, Ukraine might score a victory that would have very serious consequences in the non-military sphere.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 29 Oct 2022 18:54

Peter89 wrote:
29 Oct 2022 14:29
I very seriously doubt it, because the diplomatic and economic consequences outweighed any possible gains in domestic politics.
From a military point of view, mobilization was required prior to the war itself.

The rationalization behind it is that the Russians did not annex Kharkiv Oblast and they were performing withdrawals prior to the Ukrainian attack, leaving only weak forces. Then once the blow landed, the front disappeared in 2-3 days.

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peeved
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 29 Oct 2022 19:49

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 18:54
The rationalization behind it is that the Russians did not annex Kharkiv Oblast

Wouldn't the logical reason why Nazi Russia didn't "annex" Kharkiv Oblast along with other orcified territories in late September be that the Ukrainians already had substantially denazified the region?
Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 18:54
and they were performing withdrawals prior to the Ukrainian attack, leaving only weak forces. Then once the blow landed, the front disappeared in 2-3 days.
Such military genius. Letting the Ukrainians think that their disinformation campaign of a great push in the South was successful by withdrawing Ruffians southward from other fronts and telling Orcs to abandon their equipment when the Ukrainians attack in the Kharkiv region. Even telling the Great 3rd Army Corps to go forth and abandon more equipment to further anger the Ruffian public.

Markus

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by mezsat2 » 29 Oct 2022 20:04

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 13:54
There is a conspiracy theory that the withdrawal from Kharkiv was a '4D' chess move by Putin/MOD to anger the Russian people and get the country on mobilization and war footing.
Like the Tet offensive angered Americans? Yes, it did anger Americans- against their own government.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 29 Oct 2022 20:51

Peter89 wrote:
29 Oct 2022 14:39

Arguably the offensive achieved its non-military goals, but it was not, and could not be a war-ending move.

Judging by the units participating in the offensives, I am not sure anymore, because territorial defense forces undertook offensive actions. If proper force ratio can be achieved, even second-rate Ukrainian units can be victorious against (also not the best) Russian forces.

I would also advise caution concerning the "exhausted Ukrainians". For me it sounds like "Russia is on its last leg" or "Europe will freeze and starve during winter". Because it is also possible that Ukrainian forces halted to build up defenses for the inevitable Russian offensive. If that offensive fails, Ukraine might score a victory that would have very serious consequences in the non-military sphere.
Most of Ukrainian army is second rate. A small portion of their force is their elite and their attacks are heavily reliant sudden, short-term firing of accumulated western ammunition. The pre-war force was expended in the spring and cadres were peeled off to create a mass of new formations, many with deceptive titles. The Ukr general staff has restricted public announcements much more since they took the offensive in Sept.

In general it is safe to assume that when the Ukrainians attack, they fail. When they win, it's a diamond in the rough. They are much better in the static defense but it is more due to the very low numbers of Russian infantry before this mobilization.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 29 Oct 2022 21:02

peeved wrote:
29 Oct 2022 19:49

Such military genius. Letting the Ukrainians think that their disinformation campaign of a great push in the South was successful by withdrawing Ruffians southward from other fronts and telling Orcs to abandon their equipment when the Ukrainians attack in the Kharkiv region. Even telling the Great 3rd Army Corps to go forth and abandon more equipment to further anger the Ruffian public.

Markus
POOTIN BE GENIOUS !

You see, Putin is playing 1-D checkers.

Mad Dog

Tom Peters
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 29 Oct 2022 21:22

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 20:51
Most of Ukrainian army is second rate.
Compared to the US or other 1st world countries, sure. Compared to RU, the UKR look like titans of warfare.
Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 20:51
A small portion of their force is their elite and their attacks are heavily reliant sudden, short-term firing of accumulated western ammunition. The pre-war force was expended in the spring and cadres were peeled off to create a mass of new formations, many with deceptive titles.
You have no proof for any of that. Do you ? Anything you can refer to ?

Speaking of deceptive titles, calling the RU Army an "army" is pretty deceptive. Lets see if the 300K+ new RU cattle herded into suicide attacks will help the RU situation. Probably not much. The RU cant even supply, maintain, train or lead what they have before the "sorority rush" of the unfortunate.
Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 20:51
In general it is safe to assume that when the Ukrainians attack, they fail. When they win, it's a diamond in the rough. They are much better in the static defense but it is more due to the very low numbers of Russian infantry before this mobilization.
In general it is safe to assume that when the Russians attack or defend, or run, they fail.

The UKR have been playing rope a dope with the RU all this time. You cant see this ?

Mad Dog

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peeved
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 30 Oct 2022 00:52

Tom Peters wrote:
29 Oct 2022 21:22
Speaking of deceptive titles, calling the RU Army an "army" is pretty deceptive.
Sure if one assumes that the Rapist Army's main objective in a conflict is warfare as with lesser armed forces. However
The Russian army doesn’t know how to fight against other armies. But it’s good at killing civilians
- Mykhailo Podolyak - adviser to the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Markus

Peter89
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Peter89 » 30 Oct 2022 09:00

Cult Icon wrote:
29 Oct 2022 20:51
Peter89 wrote:
29 Oct 2022 14:39

Arguably the offensive achieved its non-military goals, but it was not, and could not be a war-ending move.

Judging by the units participating in the offensives, I am not sure anymore, because territorial defense forces undertook offensive actions. If proper force ratio can be achieved, even second-rate Ukrainian units can be victorious against (also not the best) Russian forces.

I would also advise caution concerning the "exhausted Ukrainians". For me it sounds like "Russia is on its last leg" or "Europe will freeze and starve during winter". Because it is also possible that Ukrainian forces halted to build up defenses for the inevitable Russian offensive. If that offensive fails, Ukraine might score a victory that would have very serious consequences in the non-military sphere.
Most of Ukrainian army is second rate. A small portion of their force is their elite and their attacks are heavily reliant sudden, short-term firing of accumulated western ammunition. The pre-war force was expended in the spring and cadres were peeled off to create a mass of new formations, many with deceptive titles. The Ukr general staff has restricted public announcements much more since they took the offensive in Sept.

In general it is safe to assume that when the Ukrainians attack, they fail. When they win, it's a diamond in the rough. They are much better in the static defense but it is more due to the very low numbers of Russian infantry before this mobilization.
A few remarks on this; the Ukrainian army doesn't have to be the best in the world, it only needs to be better than the Russian army. Also, being second rate does not mean worthless; if a second rate unit has 50% of the value of an elite unit, than 3 second rate unit can overpower an elite unit.

Also it is questionable what do we mean by second rate. A power of a unit is determined quantity of the material * quality of the material + quantity of the non-material * quality of the non-material. Seemingly the Ukrainians rested, trained and equipped a number of units in West Ukraine during the spring and the summer which now can not be called second rate. How much of that force was expended in the September offensives, is unknown.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

johnwilliamhunter
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by johnwilliamhunter » 30 Oct 2022 09:18

Tom Peters wrote:
29 Oct 2022 14:35

Wrong. RU has lost (at least) 25 T-90A and 5 T-90M, one of which was captured. Lots of interior shots of that last one.

If RU had many T-90 in reserve they wouldnt be rebuilding T-62.

Mad Dog
I didn't dispute those numbers, I specifically said "T-90M" "burned" by Ukrainian forces. 5 in 8 months isn't really a large loss. Even Oryx shows an Excalibur artillery shell wasn't able to destroy one.

That doesn't seem logical, it's like saying if Ukraine had many captured Russian tanks they wouldn't need Slovenian M-55s.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Oct 2022 12:23

The claim that the Russians are using T-62 because they are running out of T-72/T-80/T-90 is baseless/idiotic and hinges on wishful thinking. Same is the view that they can't use tanks because previously they liked to buy french optics. :lol:

what happens to the Ukrainian biased crowd when the Russians return with 4000 tanks, 2700 T-72/T-80/T-90 and 1300 T-62, T-64, and T-55 :lol: Seppuku?

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 30 Oct 2022 12:30

"For those interested in numbers.

Ukrainian gains in the last 3 months:
- Kharkiv liberated: 8,700 km²
- Donetsk/Luhansk liberated: 2,800 km²
- Kherson liberated: 1,800 km²

Overall: 13,300 km²

Russian gains in the last 3 months

Overall: 16 km² (Pisky 2 km² and Bakhmut 14 km²)"

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1586509524864671745

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