news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Oct 2022 12:39

Peter89 wrote:
30 Oct 2022 09:00
A few remarks on this; the Ukrainian army doesn't have to be the best in the world, it only needs to be better than the Russian army. Also, being second rate does not mean worthless; if a second rate unit has 50% of the value of an elite unit, than 3 second rate unit can overpower an elite unit.

Also it is questionable what do we mean by second rate. A power of a unit is determined quantity of the material * quality of the material + quantity of the non-material * quality of the non-material. Seemingly the Ukrainians rested, trained and equipped a number of units in West Ukraine during the spring and the summer which now can not be called second rate. How much of that force was expended in the September offensives, is unknown.
I study the map for most combat days of this war and am familiar with unit capabilities and combat performance.

The best trained Ukrainian formations were the ones that fought in the spring/early summer (pre-war). They got expended in this time frame. Ukrainian formations are composed of mobilized troops, in the main poorly trained. So a Ukrainian brigade has 3 infantry battalions, a security regiment has 2 battalions. Three Russian BTG has only one small infantry battalion combined.

So when you see a Ukrainian brigade resist successfully against 2 attacking Motor-rifle Russian BTGs in May 2022 it must be kept in mind that the Russians only have 400 infantrymen at most during that time period. The Russian tactics in this war, which is from a position of infantry shortage, is to use slowly attrit with artillery fire until their enemy withdraws. Then they take their position with very little close combat. The Ukrainian on the other hand is more combined arms oriented as they have no shortage of conscripts.

It is an apples vs oranges scenario. But this will change due to the Russian mobilization.

The Ukrainian army is lower quality than the DRP/LRP separatist formations when the separatists are supported by Russian artillery/ammunition supplies and the air force. The DRP/LRP has been advancing against Ukrainian regular army in the spring/summer and still maintain limited initiative in the Donbass. They have exceeded performance expectations of a force that in the spring still had a very ragtag appearance.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Oct 2022 13:02

Yes, they used their rested forces as assault reserves on the Kherson and Kharkiv axis' and it is unclear how much capability is left among the 'elite'. The Ukrainian General staff has stopped reporting on this since Sept, for obvious reasons.

Prior to the Russian mobilization, some of the separate volunteer battalions have been attached to Russian army BTG. So in effect they get converted into a small regimental battlegroup.

It remains to be seen how the Russians intend to use the reservists that they send to Ukraine. The Russian MOD claims that they will use the reservists in a 50:50 split (front line combat/support roles). They also 'promise' a 2 month training period prior to deployment.

Perhaps the elements that are already in Ukraine will be deployed as separate Reservist battalions and sent to reinforce BTGs holding the frontline, and are meant to stabilize the front for the time being in defensive combat. They would not have the luxury of higher level formation maneuvers. This reminds me of the replacement system in WW2.

A possibility is that the rest of the reservists and conscript class 2022-2023 would be held back and be training in the interior. According to Russian doctrine and practices, in peacetime they maintain all the equipment for a brigade with 3 infantry battalions. I would not be surprised if the rest of the reservists would be getting brigade-level training as the Russians try to make them offense-capable. They would then be deployed in Ukraine as attack oriented brigades, rather than 2-3 BTG.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Oct 2022 14:16

News on the production of Toc-1ac MLRS by Omsk Transmash, typically assigned to Russian engineer brigades:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omsktransmash



training of reservists at training grounds of the Baltic Fleet, Kaliningrad.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-1235 ... -123538639

https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=video-1235 ... -123538639

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 30 Oct 2022 16:07

ISW 10/30:
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces still have their highest quality forces operating in Kherson Oblast, predicting that Ukrainian forces will liberate the city by the end of November.[35] Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that there are 40,000 Russian servicemen in Kherson Oblast, of which most are competent units from Russian airborne troops, special operations forces, and naval infantry.[36] Budanov added that Russian forces are reinforcing these units with mobilized personnel and noted that the Russian grouping of forces operates in Kherson City, and on the western and eastern banks of the Dnipro River. Budanov noted that Russian forces are continuing to resist and are impeding Ukrainian advances on a daily basis. Budanov reiterated that the GUR’s officially assesses that Russia will not fully destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Dam, but instead will destroy the road that goes over the dam to slow Ukrainian advances across the Dnipro River.
The Ukr claims that the Russian grouping in Kherson Oblast is just 40,000 men and is growing with reservist reinforcements. This is either true or it is a lie, with the real number either greater or smaller.

On 8/14 I did a Russian order of battle and it revealed that Kherson Oblast was the strongest Russian army held province in Ukraine. This situation shouldn't have changed since then, as Kherson remains the focal point for the Russian army while the Donbass is for the separatists.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 30 Oct 2022 23:52

Pretty interesting article
Six years ago, the Russian navy formed a new army corps whose job it would be to defend Kaliningrad, Russia’s geographically separate outpost on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania.
This year, when the war in Ukraine began to go badly for Russia, the Kremlin yanked the 11th Army Corps from Kaliningrad and sent it into Ukraine. Where the Ukrainian army quickly destroyed it.
The formation, deployment and destruction of the 11th Army Corps tell a story that’s bigger than the tragic tale of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The corps, sandwiched between two NATO countries along a strategic sea, was supposed to give Russian forces an advantage in a global war.
Instead, it became cannon fodder for a Ukrainian army that, on paper, was weaker than the Russian army was. Now Kaliningrad is all but defenseless, and the threat the oblast’s troops once posed to NATO … has evaporated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... ne-to-die/

For the Russians, General Mangin's remark "Quoi qu'on fasse, on perd beaucoup de monde" (Whatever we do, we lose a lot of people), seems to ring true.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 31 Oct 2022 00:35

Russian frontline units first echelon, Kherson Oblast 8/14 East to West:

205th SMRB, 22nd AC
Electronic warfare unit (unknown)
10th SSPB GRU
34th SMRB, 22nd AC
247th GAAR, 7th GMAAD
VKS UAV Recon
171st SAABn, 97th GAAR, 7th GMAAD
108th GAAR, 7th GMAAD
255th MRR, 20th GMRD
126th SCDB, 22nd AC
4th GMB, 58th CAA
127th SRB, 22nd AC

Russian frontline units second echelon, Kherson Oblast 8/14 East to West:

234th GAAR, 76th GALD
104th GAAR, 76th GALD
124th STBn, 76th GALD
11th GAAB, 49th CAA
90th AAMB, 49th CAA
1096th AAMR, Black Sea Fleet
Company, Redut VDV BTG PMC
Electronic Warfare Unit (unknown)

Russian rear units, South of Kherson/Dnipio, Kherson Oblast 8/14 East to West:

54th C4IB, 35th CAA
82nd SRRBn WMD
107th MB, 35th CAA
165th AB, 35th CAA
69th SCB, 35th CAA
64th SMRB, 35th CAA
38th SGMRB, 35th CAA

127th MRD with 7 combat battalions
32nd Sapper, 49th CAA

104th C4IB EMD
101st MTO
16th SGSPB GRU
200th AB, 29th CAA
36th SGMRB, 29th CAA
305th AB EMD
338th GRAB EMD

106th ABD with 3 combat battalions
1182 GAR, 106th GABD
217th GABR, 98th GABD
66th C4IB EMD
8th IAR, Baltic Sea Fleet
227th AB, 49th CAA
358th GAAMR, 20th GMRD
944th GAAMR, 20th GMRD
244th AR, 20th GMRD

So in the Kherson Oblast front there are approximately 16 combat battalions.

For the rear 8/14 there are approximately 23 combat battalions

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 31 Oct 2022 00:38

So on 8/14 I counted 39 combat battalions (with 16 of these north of the Dnipro) which is approx 30,000 Russian troops max, the largest concentration of Russian forces in Ukraine.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 31 Oct 2022 02:38

johnwilliamhunter wrote:
30 Oct 2022 09:18
Tom Peters wrote:
29 Oct 2022 14:35

Wrong. RU has lost (at least) 25 T-90A and 5 T-90M, one of which was captured. Lots of interior shots of that last one.

If RU had many T-90 in reserve they wouldnt be rebuilding T-62.

Mad Dog
I didn't dispute those numbers, I specifically said "T-90M" "burned" by Ukrainian forces. 5 in 8 months isn't really a large loss. Even Oryx shows an Excalibur artillery shell wasn't able to destroy one.

That doesn't seem logical, it's like saying if Ukraine had many captured Russian tanks they wouldn't need Slovenian M-55s.
There was one burned out - I think this one:

https://postlmg.cc/tY8DsZS2

I think this was the first one noted on the battlefield.

5 isnt a big loss, unless they only committed 5. Unfortunately we have no way of knowing the total # of T-90 committed to UKR.

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 31 Oct 2022 02:41

Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:23
The claim that the Russians are using T-62 because they are running out of T-72/T-80/T-90 is baseless/idiotic and hinges on wishful thinking. Same is the view that they can't use tanks because previously they liked to buy french optics. :lol:
There is ZERO logical reason to bring T-62 out of the junkyard if better tank are available. None. Zip. Zero. Zilch.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:23
what happens to the Ukrainian biased crowd when the Russians return with 4000 tanks, 2700 T-72/T-80/T-90 and 1300 T-62, T-64, and T-55 :lol: Seppuku?
I dont have to wonder as that is an entirely hypothetical scenario. Did you forget the RU cant even get 800 refurbished T-62 going in less than 3 years ?

Where are these 6000+ tanks going to come from, other than your imagination. How about the crews ? Is Darth Putin going to start a clone program ?

[Que Imperial March theme music]

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 31 Oct 2022 02:43

Gooner1 wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:30
"For those interested in numbers.

Ukrainian gains in the last 3 months:
- Kharkiv liberated: 8,700 km²
- Donetsk/Luhansk liberated: 2,800 km²
- Kherson liberated: 1,800 km²

Overall: 13,300 km²

Russian gains in the last 3 months

Overall: 16 km² (Pisky 2 km² and Bakhmut 14 km²)"

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1586509524864671745
Im confused. Isnt this supposed to be a Russian Shock and Awe offensive campaign ?

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 31 Oct 2022 02:53

Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39

I study the map for most combat days of this war and am familiar with unit capabilities and combat performance.
Your posts indicate otherwise.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The best trained Ukrainian formations were the ones that fought in the spring/early summer (pre-war). They got expended in this time frame.
Says who ? The RU MOD ?

You seem to assume very much.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
Ukrainian formations are composed of mobilized troops, in the main poorly trained.
Better trained than the RU. And getting better all the time, comparatively speaking.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
So a Ukrainian brigade has 3 infantry battalions, a security regiment has 2 battalions.
Says who ? You do know there are many types of UKR BDE, dont you ? Oh, you didnt. Want to tell me which ones were at TOE strength pre-war and later ? You cant.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
Three Russian BTG has only one small infantry battalion combined.
but but but...."second best army in the world !"
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
So when you see a Ukrainian brigade resist successfully against 2 attacking Motor-rifle Russian BTGs in May 2022 it must be kept in mind that the Russians only have 400 infantrymen at most during that time period. The Russian tactics in this war, which is from a position of infantry shortage, is to use slowly attrit with artillery fire until their enemy withdraws. Then they take their position with very little close combat. The Ukrainian on the other hand is more combined arms oriented as they have no shortage of conscripts.
[FACEPALM]

You dont get it. There was no RU plan other than hoping the UKR would fold. There are no high level tactics, only responding to the UKR intiative. The UKR have inserted themselves into the RU decision loop.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
It is an apples vs oranges scenario. But this will change due to the Russian mobilization.
How is this going to make for a big change ? The new RU conscripts are poorly trained, poorly motived (700,000 RU fled RU to avoid this...), poorly led and poorly equipped (buying their own equipment).

I fully expect the RU to make large scale assaults with these poor fools, and I expect once again, the UKR will fall back slowly for a time until the RU have exhausted themselves in futile attacks. Rope a Dope 2023.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The Ukrainian army is lower quality than the DRP/LRP separatist formations when the separatists are supported by Russian artillery/ammunition supplies and the air force. The DRP/LRP has been advancing against Ukrainian regular army in the spring/summer and still maintain limited initiative in the Donbass. They have exceeded performance expectations of a force that in the spring still had a very ragtag appearance.
DPR admits to 70% losses. LPR is probably the same. These "useful idiots" have been armed with Mosin-Nagants, radios from the 60's, steel pot helmets and T-62. These are worse than the RU. The Wagner forces seem to be doing the best and thats being charitable.

Let Putins personal quest continue, regardless of the cost ! Hooray for pointless bloodshed ! /s

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Tom Peters » 31 Oct 2022 03:01

Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 13:02
Yes, they used their rested forces as assault reserves on the Kherson and Kharkiv axis' and it is unclear how much capability is left among the 'elite'. The Ukrainian General staff has stopped reporting on this since Sept, for obvious reasons.
Obvious reasons being OPSEC. You probably dont know what that means unless you Google it.

Neither the RU or UKR have been very chatty lately. Lots of claims for both sides, not much proof.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 13:02
It remains to be seen how the Russians intend to use the reservists that they send to Ukraine. The Russian MOD claims that they will use the reservists in a 50:50 split (front line combat/support roles). They also 'promise' a 2 month training period prior to deployment.
Given how the UKR already have captured some of the conscripts, I guess that promise wasnt kept long.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 13:02
A possibility is that the rest of the reservists and conscript class 2022-2023 would be held back and be training in the interior. According to Russian doctrine and practices, in peacetime they maintain all the equipment for a brigade with 3 infantry battalions. I would not be surprised if the rest of the reservists would be getting brigade-level training as the Russians try to make them offense-capable. They would then be deployed in Ukraine as attack oriented brigades, rather than 2-3 BTG.
Equipment ? Training cadre ? Arent you optimistic ? RU is bringing out T-62 from the storage yards. MT-LB. D-30 howitzers. Im afraid the equipment cupboard is running a bit spare for now. Khrushchev called and he wants his Soviet era junk back.

As for BDE level operations, it takes more than a few months to get that down. The UKR will figure that out before the RU, I would imagine.

Mad Dog

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 31 Oct 2022 08:21

Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The Ukrainian army is lower quality than the DRP/LRP separatist formations
If one assumes that quality means being reduced to apathetic masses of cannon-fodder, subservient to their idiotic Kremlin gremlin overlords. E.g.
In the "Eastern Human Rights Group", involved in helping the mobilized, the death toll in both republics was estimated at 30,000 people at the end of August 2022
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilizat ... nttime-1-2 [misprint in the first paragraph on that page: 14,000 should be 140,000.]
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
when the separatists are supported by Russian artillery/ammunition supplies
Due to the Ukrainians having received superior Western artillery and munitions, especially of the guided variety, and having gotten much better at counter-battery work the Ruffian arty superiority is largely non-existent and e.g. HIMARS tend to quickly convert Orc ammo supplies into expensive fireworks.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
...and the air force.
Support of the Ruffian air farce is a nonentity most of the time. Their few battlefield support missions are typically cut short by Ukrainian air defences and they mostly operate by launching militarily ineffective missile strikes at safe stand-off distances. Like the Orc land force of evil, Ruffian navel whores and air farce only excel at killing civilians.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The DRP/LRP has been advancing against Ukrainian regular army in the spring/summer
When the Orcs still had artillery superiority the Donetsk and Luhansk Pack Rats did make some, mostly minute gains.
BTW isn't the usual English abbrev. for derps/larpers, DPR/LPR instead of DRP/LRP?
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
They have exceeded performance expectations
Source, please.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
of a force that in the spring still had a very ragtag appearance.
Nowadays there might be even twenty or so with the same uniform in publicity shots. Many also have covers on their pisspot steel helmets. Of course after the Proxy Rats' major losses there would be less need of military equipment for them.

Markus

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Yuri » 31 Oct 2022 10:23

peeved wrote:
31 Oct 2022 08:21
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The Ukrainian army is lower quality than the DRP/LRP separatist formations
If one assumes that quality means being reduced to apathetic masses of cannon-fodder, subservient to their idiotic Kremlin gremlin overlords. E.g.
In the "Eastern Human Rights Group", involved in helping the mobilized, the death toll in both republics was estimated at 30,000 people at the end of August 2022
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobilizat ... nttime-1-2 [misprint in the first paragraph on that page: 14,000 should be 140,000.]
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
when the separatists are supported by Russian artillery/ammunition supplies
Due to the Ukrainians having received superior Western artillery and munitions, especially of the guided variety, and having gotten much better at counter-battery work the Ruffian arty superiority is largely non-existent and e.g. HIMARS tend to quickly convert Orc ammo supplies into expensive fireworks.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
...and the air force.
Support of the Ruffian air farce is a nonentity most of the time. Their few battlefield support missions are typically cut short by Ukrainian air defences and they mostly operate by launching militarily ineffective missile strikes at safe stand-off distances. Like the Orc land force of evil, Ruffian navel whores and air farce only excel at killing civilians.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
The DRP/LRP has been advancing against Ukrainian regular army in the spring/summer
When the Orcs still had artillery superiority the Donetsk and Luhansk Pack Rats did make some, mostly minute gains.
BTW isn't the usual English abbrev. for derps/larpers, DPR/LPR instead of DRP/LRP?
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
They have exceeded performance expectations
Source, please.
Cult Icon wrote:
30 Oct 2022 12:39
of a force that in the spring still had a very ragtag appearance.
Nowadays there might be even twenty or so with the same uniform in publicity shots. Many also have covers on their pisspot steel helmets. Of course after the Proxy Rats' major losses there would be less need of military equipment for them.

Markus
My friend, moderate your ardor, we are very worried about your condition, You may suffocate from the righteous anger overflowing with you and this may lead to sad consequences and you will leave us forever. We will miss you so much.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by peeved » 31 Oct 2022 11:55

According to this link having been refused both basic equipment and military training, intelligent mobilised Russians offed their officer and surrendered near Kherson (apparently on 14 October):
https://en.socportal.info/en/news/pod-k ... komandira/

Markus

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