news from Russo-Ukraine Front

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ljadw
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 12:36

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Jan 2023 01:01
Tom Peters wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:30

The global economy will take years to recover.

Mad Dog

Basically the global economy has almost already replaced its need of Russian fossil fuels - which sales of supply most of the Russian governments revenues.
This is not true : Germany,by example, is still depending on Russian oil,coal and gas .
And the Russian trade with India, China and Turkey (NATO member ) is strongly increasing .
There are also no proves that the trade between Western Europe and Russia has stopped .
Only 8 per cent of the EU firms have divested from Russia and the majority of those which are still operating in Russia are German (Politico 5 days ago ).

Sid Guttridge
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Sid Guttridge » 24 Jan 2023 13:06

Hi ljadw,

Actually, Russian trade with China is pretty static.

Germany is no longer dependent on Russian gas and oil sanctions are about to come in.

Oil trade with India has increased greatly, but from a very low level. At much the same time India cancelled its order for the SU-57 aircraft. It is also paying less for its oil than the cap set by the EU and US, so Russia is not making much money out of India. Furthermore, it has no pipeline and only a limited number of tankers to carry it.

This guy is usually pretty good on the economic aspects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCkmPD4Yl4A

If Politico did say that 5 days ago, you will, of course, be putting a link up? You may be right, but on AHF we are meant to give traceable sources.

You do realise that foreign companies don't necessarily have direct control over their overseas subsidiaries? Ford's German subsidiary continued to produce vehicles for the Wehrmacht throughout WWII.

Cheers,

Sid
Last edited by Sid Guttridge on 24 Jan 2023 13:36, edited 2 times in total.

Sid Guttridge
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Sid Guttridge » 24 Jan 2023 13:24

I see that Gerasimov has dismissed the General who oversaw the withdrawal from Kherson - Mikhail Teplinsky.

While wars are not won by withdrawals, this was virtually the only successful military operation so far conducted by Russia with any skill.

Infighting must be pretty fierce at the top of the Russian Army if displays of military competence are rewarded by dismissal.

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I see that Norway's intelligence services put Russian military casualties at about 180,000 so far. As mentioned recently, the USA puts them at over 150,000.

However it ends, Russia looks unlikely to get out of this war with less than half a million casualties.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 14:12

ljadw wrote:
24 Jan 2023 12:36
This is not true : Germany,by example, is still depending on Russian oil,coal and gas .
German Gas imports from Russia:
Image

EU Oil imports from Russia:
Image

EU coal imports from Russia:
"An EU embargo on the import of Russian coal goes into effect on August 11 after a midnight deadline for the transition period agreed by bloc members four months ago"
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-coal-ex ... 81840.html
And the Russian trade with India, China and Turkey (NATO member ) is strongly increasing .
There are also no proves that the trade between Western Europe and Russia has stopped .
Only 8 per cent of the EU firms have divested from Russia and the majority of those which are still operating in Russia are German (Politico 5 days ago ).
How about you support that drivel with sources?

Gooner1
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 14:24

Oh and European gas prices are now below where they were before the Russian invasion:

Image

And gas storage in Europe at very healthy levels

Image

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 14:59

Peter89 wrote:
23 Jan 2023 23:23

Maybe. But we don't really know how many of those soldiers are Ukrainians and how many are ethnic Russians who lived in pre-2014 Ukraine.
I am more referring to the means to which they are classified- so prior to the integration of the 4 oblasts into the armed forces, they were a politically/militarily 'separate' entity and did not constitute political risk. The use of 'proxies' to do the bulk of the infantry fighting (while sparing reservists and the professional-contract cadre) was part of Russian army doctrine before the war.

Also, in official figures losses of the 1st and 2nd Army corps DPR/LPR were not tallied together until this force was rolled into the army at the end of the last year. Currently the separatists are now part of the Armed forces (target 1.35 million men) so all their data are rolled together.

However the PMCs, more significantly Wagner are not part of the Armed forces, like Western PMCs in Iraq/Afganistan. So in the US we had 'death' counts of US servicemen that always constituted a political risk that the populace was well aware of.

However American PMC deaths, which likely underreported and exceeded that of servicemen in reality, was not part of official figures and in general people did not care about them. Wagner occupies that role as well.

I'd wager the highly aggressive use of 1st and 2nd Army corps also has to do with the fact that their fates are joined with Russia. If Russia withdraws from the Donbass the Ukrainians will seek retribution against the rebel provinces.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 15:30

So in Jan 2022 there were approx. 500,000 professional-contract servicemen (army, airborne, marines) plus active reservists of the 2021 BARS program. If minimum 11,000 KIA/MIA plus 'irrecoverable' (crippled) claimed by anti-Kremlin Meduza/BBC is correct we have minimum 22,000 plus professional-contract servicemen permanently out of action. On top of this is contract expiration, which is a further outflow.

https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

The more interesting figure is not claims of Russian casualties, which are used as propaganda but real number of Ukrainian deaths. Their officials have admitted to over 31,000 KIA/MIA but this is an underclaim. Their own armed forces (army, airborne, marine and national guard) were approx 300,000 pre-war, with only half of this figure in the army/marines/airborne (150,000 men).

The attrition to the professional-contract cadre of the Ukrainians, in particular army is catastrophic and much higher in percentage than the Russian, but how much so is unknown due to the secrecy. The lack of educated soldiers and well trained formations would effect their capability to perform higher level tasks which is why they have demonstrated low offensive power despite their numerical superiority and the low tactical density of the Russians.

However this is balanced by their now extensive experience holding static positions and digging trench lines.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 15:47

To sum things up, things don't look good for the Ukrainians in this war of attrition as they are taking many multiples % higher attrition to their professional cadre than the Russians and the original cadre of professional formations were decimated in the spring. They are currently attempting to organize a new 'corps' in the West for offensive action and higher level tasks. Nevertheless their offensive power will remain a low percentage of the Russian side.

However, they have millions of people they can conscript, organize into regiments/brigades, and then use them to dig and occupy trenches. This can give them pretty good static defense power for a long time.

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 15:49

Gooner1 wrote:
24 Jan 2023 14:12
ljadw wrote:
24 Jan 2023 12:36
This is not true : Germany,by example, is still depending on Russian oil,coal and gas .
German Gas imports from Russia:
Image

EU Oil imports from Russia:
Image

EU coal imports from Russia:
"An EU embargo on the import of Russian coal goes into effect on August 11 after a midnight deadline for the transition period agreed by bloc members four months ago"
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-coal-ex ... 81840.html
And the Russian trade with India, China and Turkey (NATO member ) is strongly increasing .
There are also no proves that the trade between Western Europe and Russia has stopped .
Only 8 per cent of the EU firms have divested from Russia and the majority of those which are still operating in Russia are German (Politico 5 days ago ).
How about you support that drivel with sources?
That there is a decreased and decreasing import of Russian oil,coal and gas (this import is decreasing but has not stopped as there are a lot of indirect ways to still import coal,oil and gas from Russia ) does not mean that Germany is not depending on Russian oil,coal and gas .
Politico is a source,especially as it is fanatically anti Russian and very left wing .
On 19 January Politico eu. titled the following :
''Majority of western companies doing business as usual in Russia ,study finds . ''
And the title of the study is '' Less than 9 percent of western firms have divested from Russia .''
Authors of the study are
Simon Evenett (from the university of St Gallen )
and Nicolo Pisani .
The fact that the official boycott started only 5 months after the start of the war and the fact that the governments of the EU know that more than 90 % of the firms still continue to do business in ,with Russia and that these governments do nothing against this ,prove that Germany and most of Europe are depending on Russian oil,coal and gas .
Europe is importing this oil,coal and gas since more than 50 years and the Soviet invasions in CZ and Afghanistan changed nothing .

ljadw
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 15:51

I like also to add that the CIA (RFE/RL ) is not a reliable source .
Last edited by ljadw on 24 Jan 2023 16:00, edited 1 time in total.

ljadw
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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 16:00

Last year Italian trade with Turkey was going up by 87 % and Turkish Trade with Russia by 68 % .
Last year the Indian oil export has increased very strongly .
These are 2 examples how the sanctions are evaded massively ,as they were after the first Russian invasion in 22014 .

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by ljadw » 24 Jan 2023 16:18

From Euronews (very establishment ) : more than 550 ( 220 ) global companies are continuing ''business as usual '' in Russia .
Companies as
AstraZeneca
Bayer
Engie
Armani
ING Bank
Philips
Merck
Nestlé
Red Bull
Unilever
Yves Rocher

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 16:34

ljadw wrote:
24 Jan 2023 16:00
Last year Italian trade with Turkey was going up by 87 %
Pure bollocks.
Last year the Indian oil export has increased very strongly .
Indeed so. They buy it because it is deeply discounted "India have rejected the price cap and Russia has offered to help India build oil tankers to enable them to ship Russian oil directly to India, bypassing the sanctions. In December India was buying around one shipload of 1m bpd. During December India increased Russian oil imports, receiving a discount of USD12-15pb which is around USD7pb higher discount than in October, giving a buy price below the price cap.

"The USA believe African countries can benefit from the Price Cap by buying oil from Russia at discounted prices, saving up to USD6 billion p.a.]

Russian revenue from oil export duty reportedly fell from USD120m per week to USD47m a week after sanctions came into effect, a fall of 60%"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russ ... _price_cap

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Gooner1 » 24 Jan 2023 16:47

ljadw wrote:
24 Jan 2023 16:18
From Euronews (very establishment ) : more than 550 ( 220 ) global companies are continuing ''business as usual '' in Russia .
Companies as

Your usual half-read/half-understood blabla

AstraZeneca - halt new investments/new clinical trials
Bayer - stopping unspecified non-essential business activity
Engie - no new investments
Armani - Suspended investments
ING Bank - pause all new business
Philips - online sales still available in Russia
Merck - no further investments/clinical trial enrollment
Nestlé - halted non-essential imports/exports to Russia, stopped all advertising, and suspended all capital investment
Red Bull - suspend new investments
Unilever - stopped imports/exports and stopped all advertising and investments
Yves Rocher - uspend new investments/development

Companies totally halting Russian engagements or completely exiting Russia... 341
Companies temporarily curtailing most or nearly all operations while keeping return options open...491
Companies that are scaling back some significant business operations but continuing some others...168
Companies postponing future planned investment/development/marketing while continuing substantive business...163
Companies that are just continuing business-as-usual in Russia...226

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-10 ... ome-remain

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Re: news from Russo-Ukraine Front

Post by Cult Icon » 24 Jan 2023 18:49

EU and the 'West' is hardly "the world". More like 11% of the world population.

Russia's economic and social destiny is to be more closely aligned with Asia, middle east and africa now and to have a much more militarized society and economy.
Last edited by Cult Icon on 24 Jan 2023 19:08, edited 1 time in total.

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