Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#31

Post by Terry Duncan » 11 Mar 2023, 13:21

Short of looking across the ocean at each other in an angry fashion, how exactly are they going to fight? There could be some minor action in the Pacific area, but as neither side has any critical property there it is simply a side show. How can either side even project power over the Atlantic when if the other side refuses to come out and fight they will have to return home to the other side of the ocean. Shore bombardments are possible but that depends how desperate each side is to upset the rest of the world with their 'barbarism'!

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#32

Post by Asher S. » 11 Mar 2023, 20:16

Terry Duncan wrote:
11 Mar 2023, 13:21
Short of looking across the ocean at each other in an angry fashion, how exactly are they going to fight? There could be some minor action in the Pacific area, but as neither side has any critical property there it is simply a side show. How can either side even project power over the Atlantic when if the other side refuses to come out and fight they will have to return home to the other side of the ocean. Shore bombardments are possible but that depends how desperate each side is to upset the rest of the world with their 'barbarism'!
Just because neither side can pose an existential threat to the other’s homeland belies the fact that limited wars are far more common than a “total war”, Terry. It’s not necessary.

In this case it even increases the believability for me, especially in Germany’s case since this is one of the few scenarios where Germany can dramatically increase overseas holdings at another powers expense without automatically triggering an existential, European war. Both countries had been pushing for decades to expand their influence in this region and mainland Asia. The Philippines in particular are a major prize. To what extent each can deploy to the Pacific is what I’m researching at the moment, will post later on that. Anchorages and coaling are sufficient but drydocks are another concern.


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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#33

Post by Asher S. » 11 Mar 2023, 20:55

T. A. Gardner wrote:
11 Mar 2023, 01:26
Asher S. wrote:
10 Mar 2023, 23:59
Were the Tennessee class and Pennsylvania class designs qualitatively stronger than S&G? Doubtful. SMS Fürst Bismarck although lacking in speed had competitive armament and armor with the Tennessees. Then there is SMS Blücher, the most powerful armored cruiser afloat at the time.

Although the US has the advantage in armored cruisers numbers (12 to 9) in the event of a decisive fleet engagement their use is limited thanks to the existence of I. Scouting Group — which would include the battlecruisers and Blücher if the Germans repeat their WWI deployment. The armored cruisers will be stuck hugging the main US battle line, unless they want to repeat what happened to Admiral Arbuthnot, or von Spee for that matter.
With equal crews, the US ships were better, and there's 10 of them versus 2. The older German and US armored cruisers are markedly inferior.

Tennessee class: 4 x 10"/40 guns in twin turret mounts, 16 x 6"/50 guns in casemates. The later are very powerful for their size. Belt 1.5 - 5" Deck 1.5 to 4" Turrets 2.5 to 9" That's the last 5 built.

Scharnhorst / Gneisenau 8 x 8.3"/40 guns 4 in twin turrets, four in casemates, 6 x 5.9"/40 guns all in casemates. Belt 3 to 6" Decks 1.4 to 2.5" Turrets 6.7" max

I would doubt that such a war would see a Jutland-style battle, but rather more like the German Pacific Squadron or Goeben saw, where smaller units of both fleets meet at sea, particularly in the Pacific.
Even ignoring the battlecruisers for a moment:
Compared to the Tennessee class, S&G have worse turret and deck protection, and lighter main guns, and a clearly inferior secondary battery, while they also have a marginally faster speed, have more main guns, and better belt armor.

Not a clear quality difference to me, a lot of this is dependent on the range and visibility conditions among other circumstances of the action they fight. Besides, it’s unlikely that the crew would be equal in that instance, since S&G won the Kaiser’s Cup for best gunnery in the KM twice.

The Roon and Prinz Adalbert classes are competitive with the Pennsylvania class, in fact only SMS Prinz Heinrich is insufficient for fighting the modern US armored cruisers and maybe SMS Fürst Bismarck too on the basis of speed, while SMS Blücher was probably the best armored cruiser afloat at the time. I agree that the American armored cruiser force has an advantage, but a minor one.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#34

Post by nuyt » 11 Mar 2023, 22:37

So here we go, let's play.

The German High Command quickly realizes it will be very hard to fight on the other side of the world and concludes they cannot in time reinforce the Empire's Asian possessions (after all just a marine or see batallion is in Chingdao). Nevertheless the HSF is dispatched soon, together with the first and second see battalions plus a division worth of army troops, including heavy artillery. A substantial amount of extra weapons is also stowed on board. They sail with a lot of noise for Asia to fight the Yanks. Also, three more marine battalions plus an artillery unit are raised in Kiel, they will depart 6 weeks later for Asia.

Once the fleet passes Madeira the HSF turns west, quickly followed by the transport fleet. The HSF appears to be heading for Florida or the Gulf, so the Americans mass their fleet off Miami. However the HSF, shielding off the transport fleet sets course for Puerto Rico and suddenly attacks San Juan, while the marines are let loose. The Puerto Ricans revolt as they still oppose US lordship (they would declare independence IRL in 1914 in vain). Leaving some troops behind to assist the PR revolutionary guard, the German fleet sails on. Where is it going?

German diplomacy has been very active in Colombia and soon the German fleet enters Colombian waters to quickly turn west and attack Colon in the former Colombian province of Panama. A Colombian field force meanwhile moves up the isthmus towards Panama City, a German artillery regiment among them. The bulk of the German forces land at Colon and quickly take the canal construction zone. President Madero of Mexico takes notice.

While the Americans are making sense of this mess, they land again on PR, only to find a hostile population there armed with Mausers and Krupp guns. The Germans and Colombians meanwhile consolidate their position in Panama with a mixed division. The HSF with the see batalione and half the Army division however leave the area and head for Africa, where the newly formed marine units from Kiel join them soon. This force sails on to Walvisbai where it anchors to supply.
Last edited by nuyt on 12 Mar 2023, 00:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#35

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 12 Mar 2023, 00:12

I remember the historian Zinn wrote a examination of the USN gaming for a Pacific war. Those were in the context of map exercises that Zinn described. & based off the results of fleet exercises. Zinn noted the USN planning for the games & in staff preparation for War Plan ORANGE assumed the US fleet setting out from its west coast bases would lose 70% of its combat efficiency on a straight voyage to the Philippines. This was from a combination of depletion of ships stores, mechanical failure, crew fatigue/illneses, weather, losses in minor actions along the way. The assumption or estimate was based on data collected rom the squadron training time at sea and the annual fleet exercises.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#36

Post by T. A. Gardner » 13 Mar 2023, 00:46

Here's how I see the opening of this war:

There is some incident like the Samoa one that sets the war off. It is likely between US and German naval units somewhere in the Pacific. It takes a week or more for news to leak out, which is embellished heavily. In the US, yellow journalism turns it into some blood bath started by Germany. War is declared days later.

Both sides start to mobilize for a conflict. With Mexico in revolution, Germany can't try to negotiate an alliance. Instead, they begin planning an invasion of Puerto Rico and grabbing up their merchant ships to send reinforcements to colonies. The US does likewise. US arms and ammunition manufacturers turn up production and end sales to both sides in Mexico (there was a considerable arms trade going on for the revolution there).
With the National Guard being called up, and a mass draft started, the US pulls their regulars from the Mexico border and uses them to reinforce various places. A cavalry regiment is sent to the Philippines along with a convoy of ships carrying obsolescent or obsolete arms and ammunition to outfit a Philippine army of several divisions.

Samoa and Guam see troops sent as well. US forces in China are amassed to defend what little property the US has there.

Germany has to consider what they can afford to send overseas both in terms of what they can support as well as what won't weaken their defenses at home against rival powers in Europe. The US has no real concern about that, Mexico is in revolt, and Canada and the British are friendly. France and Russia are potential enemies on the other hand for Germany.

The same goes at sea. The US can unleash their fleet for operations elsewhere leaving the defense of the US to smaller craft, coast defenses, ground troops, and the vast size of the nation itself.

Neither side is prepared to go on some major offensive for months. In the US a huge army has been forming and the Navy's main job has been escorting troop convoys to various places reinforcing these. In Panama, the US has not only reinforced the canal zone, but they have pushed up completion and the canal will open by the beginning of 1913. The US has also started massive coast defense forts on both ends of the canal. While these won't be complete until around 1914 or 15, they represent a serious problem to a German invasion, while the increasing presence of US troops in the zone makes things more difficult. Within months of the war starting the US has a reinforced division of troops in Panama.

Both sides turn to commerce raiding.

The US Army uses the Mexico border area as a training ground for new units that are rotated in. This allows them to get some low intensity combat experience before being sent somewhere else.

That's the first few months of this conflict.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#37

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 13 Mar 2023, 16:42

OTL the US mobilization of 1917-1918 occurred after a three year ramp up in arms production. There were still severe delays in equipping a ary of 55 divisions. This was also after a number of modernization measures in the Army and state militias. For any war & general mobilization up into 1914 the mobilization for the Spanish American War would be the model. A look at the follow up to the Vera Cruz occupation of 1914 is another example. While the US Navy was able to cobble together a landing force out of ships companies, it took the US Army months to assemble & embark a single brigade to complete the occupation. At amore global level the politics ridden War Department required decades of reform to catch up with the US position emerging in the 1890s. Traditionally the US Army provided organized formations for landing forces and littoral operations larger than a few companies. But when the USN began taking seriously the demands of US leaders to operate in distant seas they found the Army incapable of organizing expeditionary forces in a timely manner. Im not knocking the Army here, the problem lay squarely with Congress which for several reasons did not wish to fund a Army. This triggered the USN program to convert the Marines from a interior guard into a capable base defense force & then to a full expeditionary army.

But I diregress. Any US Army/Militia mobilization previous to 1914 is going to have weak results.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#38

Post by T. A. Gardner » 15 Mar 2023, 07:47

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
13 Mar 2023, 16:42
OTL the US mobilization of 1917-1918 occurred after a three year ramp up in arms production. There were still severe delays in equipping a ary of 55 divisions. This was also after a number of modernization measures in the Army and state militias. For any war & general mobilization up into 1914 the mobilization for the Spanish American War would be the model. A look at the follow up to the Vera Cruz occupation of 1914 is another example. While the US Navy was able to cobble together a landing force out of ships companies, it took the US Army months to assemble & embark a single brigade to complete the occupation. At amore global level the politics ridden War Department required decades of reform to catch up with the US position emerging in the 1890s. Traditionally the US Army provided organized formations for landing forces and littoral operations larger than a few companies. But when the USN began taking seriously the demands of US leaders to operate in distant seas they found the Army incapable of organizing expeditionary forces in a timely manner. Im not knocking the Army here, the problem lay squarely with Congress which for several reasons did not wish to fund a Army. This triggered the USN program to convert the Marines from a interior guard into a capable base defense force & then to a full expeditionary army.

But I diregress. Any US Army/Militia mobilization previous to 1914 is going to have weak results.
Well, this goes back to what I stated. While I didn't give a firm timeline, my guess is both sides are left scrambling for months for a means to really get at the other party. The US has a chaotic mobilization while the Germans, never having engaged in an truly foreign / overseas war, are both left with issues that drag their mobilization and offensive efforts--or any efforts-- to a crawl.

The US would have the advantage of being able to reinforce existing overseas possessions compared to the Germans. The Germans have the advantage of a better mobilization system.

What you end up with is the US can more than adequately defend what they have while the Germans can't figure out a way to mount an effective offensive.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#39

Post by Asher S. » 06 Apr 2023, 08:46

An update: I still don’t have info on what slipways were available for drydock in either Tsingtao or the Philippines, but as far as floating drydocks are concerned, both the Schwimmdock at Tsingtao and the “Dewey” floating dock in Manila Bay were rated for 16.000 tons. In other words, nothing larger than a pre-dreadnought or armored cruiser can use them, which is a problem for both sides, but especially for the Germans. One source said the Dewey dock could take as high as 20.000 if pushed, which would allow some American dreadnoughts. The two look similar in size to me.
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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#40

Post by thaddeus_c » 23 May 2023, 03:00

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
08 Mar 2023, 16:21
The Germans have a difficult problem here, actually several. The technical problem is the German fleet is coal fueled & they have no major coaling stations in the Western Hemisphere. The size and location of these coaling stations has sifignificant effects on how many ships can be deployed, where, and how long they can steam about before RTB to refuel. AExamining those questions are as important as it affects both strategy and local operations.


Its certainly not impossible for Germany to obtain the necessary base/s & coal supply, tho its not very practical overnight or even in a couple months. In my version of this Reich/US war I solved it with a marriage alliance between the Reich and Spanish empires from around 1875 -1890. That gives time for a solid base structure to be developed in the western hemisphere.
this scenario supercedes the Spanish-American War? would it be possible with the Dutch empire and/or Danish empire instead?

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#41

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 23 May 2023, 17:13

thaddeus_c wrote:
23 May 2023, 03:00
... this scenario supercedes the Spanish-American War?

The Spanish American War was part of the US, or US business community expanding into Latin America & the attendant friction with Spanish development. German business was also expanding its ventures and there was friction between US business & those as well.

thaddeus_c wrote:
23 May 2023, 03:00
... would it be possible with the Dutch empire and/or Danish empire instead?
That pair had less interest in closer ties with the German Empire as I understand. Spain had economic incentives. It needed capitol & political clout. It may be the threat of becoming a German client state would be unattractive. But the alternative could be loss of empire. German capitol, and business connections might seem worth the cost. German investment in Cuba & Puerto Rico would encourage German investment in independent Caribbean & other Latin nations, increasing friction with the US.


An alliance dating from the 1870s or 80s could see the Spanish fleet being replaced with modern German made warships in the 19890s, German cruiser squadrons frequently visiting their coaling stations in Puerto Rico, or Cuba. Considering how the news paper whipped up a Spanish American War out of nearly nothing its even easier with arrogant Germans parading a fleet in front of Jingoist Yanks. This was the era of the Robber Barons, and their economics was behind much of the US foreign policy of the era.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#42

Post by thaddeus_c » 26 May 2023, 13:19

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
23 May 2023, 17:13
thaddeus_c wrote:
23 May 2023, 03:00
... this scenario supercedes the Spanish-American War?

The Spanish American War was part of the US, or US business community expanding into Latin America & the attendant friction with Spanish development. German business was also expanding its ventures and there was friction between US business & those as well.

thaddeus_c wrote:
23 May 2023, 03:00
... would it be possible with the Dutch empire and/or Danish empire instead?
That pair had less interest in closer ties with the German Empire as I understand. Spain had economic incentives. It needed capitol & political clout. It may be the threat of becoming a German client state would be unattractive. But the alternative could be loss of empire. German capitol, and business connections might seem worth the cost. German investment in Cuba & Puerto Rico would encourage German investment in independent Caribbean & other Latin nations, increasing friction with the US.


An alliance dating from the 1870s or 80s could see the Spanish fleet being replaced with modern German made warships in the 19890s, German cruiser squadrons frequently visiting their coaling stations in Puerto Rico, or Cuba. Considering how the news paper whipped up a Spanish American War out of nearly nothing its even easier with arrogant Germans parading a fleet in front of Jingoist Yanks. This was the era of the Robber Barons, and their economics was behind much of the US foreign policy of the era.
thanks for the details!

out of curiosity, what was your thinking on Portugal under this scenario? in your opinion would they be drawn into a German-Spanish sphere or follow the WWI historical track of close relations with GB?

IDK that even more (possible) bases would be needed, but that's the reason for my question.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#43

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 26 May 2023, 17:02

thaddeus_c wrote:
26 May 2023, 13:19

out of curiosity, what was your thinking on Portugal under this scenario? in your opinion would they be drawn into a German-Spanish sphere or follow the WWI historical track of close relations with GB?

IDK that even more (possible) bases would be needed, but that's the reason for my question.

I don't know much about Portuguse politics. I recall there was still a bad feeling over the era Portugal & Spain were united under one monarch. The Portuguese gentleman I was talking to about that did not have fluent English. Along with that Had a impression the Portuguese thought the Spanish were the loser cousins you did not want visiting often. Maybe thats all distorted & a expert can paint a different picture for us. I also recall there was a faction in 1930s or 40s Spain who thought Portugal should be united with Spain, by force fn necessary. During WWII Portuguese intelligence had eye on that faction & if Spain were up dating its war plans for Portugal.

Beyond all that the Portuguese had some deep and long running ties to Britain. They sold a lot a Maderia wine to the English.

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#44

Post by Huszar666 » 26 May 2023, 21:58

To make a U-turn towards the original scenario.
We forgot about an empire, that sits not far from the newly acquired American possession, does not like Americans all that much, and has hegemonical designs.
Some interesting thoughts:
1, Germany promises, let's say, half of the Philippines to that certain Empire
2, since that certain Empire is the military ally of another certain Empire (you know, the biggest one), it would be possible, that the US finds itself at war against not one, but three Great Empires. Getting a German squadron to the Far East would be child's play in that scenario. Assuming, a German squadron would be needed in the Pacific at all.

Also, it would have interesting effects on world politics and alliance-making.

(I never understood the UK. They wanted to be the big cock on the garbage pile, and tried to keep Germany small, but overlooked the more dangerous opponent across the Big Pond)

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Re: Imperial Germany and the US go to war in 1912

#45

Post by T. A. Gardner » 26 May 2023, 22:17

Asher S. wrote:
06 Apr 2023, 08:46
An update: I still don’t have info on what slipways were available for drydock in either Tsingtao or the Philippines, but as far as floating drydocks are concerned, both the Schwimmdock at Tsingtao and the “Dewey” floating dock in Manila Bay were rated for 16.000 tons. In other words, nothing larger than a pre-dreadnought or armored cruiser can use them, which is a problem for both sides, but especially for the Germans. One source said the Dewey dock could take as high as 20.000 if pushed, which would allow some American dreadnoughts. The two look similar in size to me.
The bigger difference is that the US Navy in 1912, already had a fleet train and planning in place to operate mobile advanced bases in the Pacific as part of their war planning. This started as early as 1904 based on issues the Navy had had in fighting the Spanish-American war. Roosevelt's Great White Fleet circumnavigation of 1907 to 1909 reinforced this concept and led the Navy to start building an actual fleet train for wartime use.

Thus, even in 1912, the USN has colliers, tenders, and supply ships already on hand to allow their fleet to operate far from any friendly base or harbor. The Germans had nothing like it. They didn't even really have planning in place to deal with such a situation.

This means that say, the US decides they need more troops and ships in the Pacific at Guam and the Philippines, within weeks they could have had a fleet moving accompanied by tenders, colliers, and supply ships underway. Even if all the US Army could send were a couple of regiments of troops, along with say two battleships, several cruisers, and some smaller ships, it's 100% more than Germany could manage in the same timeframe.

That would make US holdings like the Philippines or Guam quickly untakable while threatening German colonial possessions across the Pacific held by little or nothing. A reasonable US fleet train in the Philippines would give the US Navy instant access to most essential shipyard services for their fleet like machine shops, coaling, and ammunition resupply whereas the Germans would have to bring all of that with them then try to set it up ashore or source it locally and then build facilities.

At the time, Japan was friendly with the US so they could reasonably become a source of coal and other materials for US forces in the Philippines and elsewhere.

Germany would be left scrambling just to assemble a fleet and sufficient train to move ships across the Atlantic, let alone into the Pacific. If the British and French won't cooperate with Germany (a very likely case), then the Germans are much the same position as the Russians trying to send a fleet from the Baltic--although I would expect the Germans to be far, far better at operating their ships than Russia was.

The US, again I'd think would look at a quick land grab in the Pacific taking lightly held locations like Saipan and the German colonies in the SW Pacific.

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