Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

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wm
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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by wm » 12 Jan 2014 21:33

The 1946 census is here. It's only Poland in its new borders, but there are Poles, Germans and "others" there.
5.8 is an upper estimate, without those in the West (1.5 million, between '45 and '47 0.8 returned) and those held in the USSR.
s1.jpg
s2.jpg
In 1939 the Polish Government estimated the total population at 36.2 million in '42, and 38.3 in '47 (J. Rakowski Polityka inwestycyjna i planowanie inwestycji, Warsaw 1939).
So the '46 number is derived from those, and assuming the pre-war Poles at 68,9% of the population.
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Cerdic
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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Cerdic » 12 Jan 2014 21:39

wm, thankyou for these statistics.

The 1939 forecast of growth must assume pre-war growth rates in population. Lukas mentions somewhere in Did the children cry? that the wartime birthrate was significantly lower than that of the pre-war, so the number you give for "missing" must include a certain amount of Poles who were never born at all.

What do you think are the flaws in the analysis provided by the article I linked to?

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by wm » 12 Jan 2014 22:02

Well, I wonder then what those people were doing at that time.
There was nothing to do, on the streets Germans, criminals and who knows who else, newspapers boring, radios confiscated, rather loose morals because of the war.
Maybe the birth rate was depressed, but some kind of proof would be nice.

And, as the peasants were the majority of the population - the first years of the war were kind to them because of the bumper crops and prices increases, and all that after the pre-war crippling deflation.
They had no reason to hold back.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Cerdic » 13 Jan 2014 17:38

wm, I will reread Lukas' book and try to find the passage I'm referring to. From a quick google search, a Polish website refers to modern Polish birthrate being as low as during WWII http://www.wbj.pl/article-63741-polish- ... evels.html

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 13 Jan 2014 17:54

Hi Peter K.,

The war reparations issue also clouded a real estimation of Yugoslav losses. Almost immediately the war was over and before a proper accounting could be made, the Yugoslavs claimed to have suffered 1,700,000 dead. No revision was ever made based on hard facts.

However, counts made separately by Serb and Croat researchers in the early 1990s both put Yugoslav fatalities at just over a million.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by David Thompson » 13 Jan 2014 23:49

Sid -- Let's keep this discussion on Polish losses. Feel free to start a new topic on those of Yugoslavia.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Davey Boy » 14 Jan 2014 14:34

I'm primarily interested in the people who died as a result of the war, as opposed to those who weren't born.

So would an estimate of over 2 million Poles (ie. Catholics of Slavic descent) and almost 3 million Polish Jews be correct?

Also, would it be correct to say that more than 4/5 of these people were killed by Germans, and the rest by the Soviets?

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Cerdic » 14 Jan 2014 16:41

Davey
I'm primarily interested in the people who died as a result of the war, as opposed to those who weren't born
This is fair enough - however, births which would have happened (but didn't because of wartime conditions) do factor into a demographic estimate of how many people died in the war, following on from wm's post here: http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1846263

Surely 1/5 (about a million) deaths caused by the Soviets would be too high. According to this data, about 315,000 Poles were deported to the Soviet Union. Taking deaths during and after this deportation, and military deaths vs the USSR and deaths from executions all together is probably not one million.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by wm » 14 Jan 2014 21:19

There are two methods to estimate the losses, counting the dead or counting the survivors.
The former is hard because many of the deaths are unrecorded.
The later needs the total number of births during the war. The total number of deaths unrelated to war can be estimated from pre war data - a depressed birth rate is possible, a depressed death rate is harder.

In this book they say, in Warsaw the births per year was (excluding Jews):

1938: 13104
1940: 12270
1941: 10404
1942: 8988

In 1938 there were 849873 births, 479602 deaths, 68,9% of them Poles (probably, not very reliable number).
Assuming the Warsaw numbers are representative of the entire population (not very reasonable, I think, but better than nothing), and assuming '42='43='44='45 - the number of unborn was 0.7 million.
This number should be subtracted from the 5.8 million of missing above.

As to the deaths caused by the Soviets I've seen 0.5 million deaths, and I've seen 0.5 million (and possibly up to 0.8) of killed, arrested, interned and whatever in total so it seems there is a lot of hand waving going on.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by LWD » 14 Jan 2014 21:21

If you get into birth rates you also have to be careful. Different countries have different defintions of what constitures a "live birth" and if the war impacted fetal viability do you include that?

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by wm » 15 Jan 2014 01:46

It's not worth it because the other inaccuracies dwarf that error: number of Poles before the war, after, births in 1943-45, the fact that Warsaw was very different from the countryside.
So it's only a rough estimate anyway.

Below is the number of Poles born during the WW2 and alive in 1975, earlier data was never published because those imperialist pigs could have used it in planning an attack on the peaceful Warsaw Pact:

38 421900 100%
39 418200 99
40 414800 98
41 387400 92
42 362400 86
43 364500 86
44 375900 89
45 378500 90
46 512900 122%

so the worst years were '42 and '43, only 86% of '38.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Cerdic » 15 Jan 2014 18:14

One issue that the author of my linked article doesn't take into account is German citizens in 1939 who later become regonisd as ethnic Poles in the post war. According to Peter K (who will be contributing here soon) they numbered about 1.1 million, which should be subtracted from his number of total Poles in 1950.

Other than that, I'd still not entirely sure of what mistakes the article makes. Contradictory statistics have been provided, but why they contradict eachother on the issue of wartime deaths is not clear to me yet. An explanation of where the article goes wrong would be helpful.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by wm » 15 Jan 2014 20:17

His numbers are simply wrong. For example, he says Poles 1945: P = 21.388 Mil., but the correct is 20.5, as shown above.
His 1% factor of increase/year, should be up to 2%, as shown below (the difference between the red line and the blue line):
PLprzyrostNat2.png
from: http://www.wiking.edu.pl/article.php?id=269


The fact is, in 1946 there was 2.3 million less men than women. This can't be used to calculate anything because both men and women were killed, but shows that something was wrong.
The sex ratio is never 1, but still it was a huge difference anyway.
Where those missing men were?
In the USSR? No, because entire families, both men and women were deported or not allowed to emigrate to Poland. So the sex ratio was unaffected by them.
In Germany - prisoners, slave laborers? Maybe but both men and women were arrested or enslaved.
In the West? The Polish Armed Forces in the West were 250 thousand at best.


I think only the most accurate numbers should be used, censuses, birth and death records. These below are probably the most accurate we can find:

- the last census before the WW2: 68.9% of the population was Polish
- the '39 goverment estimation (for their own use - so should be ok): 36.2 million in '42, and 38.3 in '47
so: 37.5m in '45, 25.8m of them Poles

- the 1950 census: 25.035m
- births minus deaths per year from '45 to '50: 20000 (est.), 380700, 422800, 437500, 444600, 474400
- so 22.7m Poles in 1945 (including those outside Poland, who would return and later be counted by the census)

- in 1950, there were 0.5m emigrants (the British counted them), 0.22m Poles in the USSR (we know because they returned after Stalin's death),
- the unborns were estimated from the number of Poles born during the WW2 and alive in 1975: 0.2m.

There should have been 25.8m, but in '45 only 22.7m Poles were to be found in Poland, 0.72m abroad.
- The number of missing is 2.2 million.
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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Cerdic » 18 Jan 2014 14:41

wm,
I think only the most accurate numbers should be used, censuses, birth and death records. These below are probably the most accurate we can find:

- the last census before the WW2: 68.9% of the population was Polish
- the '39 goverment estimation (for their own use - so should be ok): 36.2 million in '42, and 38.3 in '47
so: 37.5m in '45, 25.8m of them Poles

- the 1950 census: 25.035m
- births minus deaths per year from '45 to '50: 20000 (est.), 380700, 422800, 437500, 444600, 474400
- so 22.7m Poles in 1945 (including those outside Poland, who would return and later be counted by the census)

- in 1950, there were 0.5m emigrants (the British counted them), 0.22m Poles in the USSR (we know because they returned after Stalin's death),
- the unborns were estimated from the number of Poles born during the WW2 and alive in 1975: 0.2m.

There should have been 25.8m, but in '45 only 22.7m Poles were to be found in Poland, 0.72m abroad.
- The number of missing is 2.2 million.
does this take into account the pre-war and wartime German citizens who after the war were treated as ethnic Poles? If Peter K is right that they numbered about 1.1 million and these statistics dont take them into account, true number of Polish victims may be closer to 3.3 million.

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Re: Poland: ~6 million or ~10 million victims of WW2 ?

Post by Sid Guttridge » 18 Jan 2014 21:28

Hi Guys,

If one counts (or rather tries to estimate) the number of descendants not born because of the deaths of prospective parents, then the toll continues eternally as unborn grand children, great grandchildren, etc. are added in. The Third Punic (or any other historic) War would still be clocking up victims today if we did so.

Furthermore, population reproduction rates vary. So the death of one person in a stagnant population causes much less cumulative effect than the death of a person in a high reproducing population. This then would tend to value some deaths more than others.

I would suggest that each death be treated as a discrete occurrence. Individuals die, not infinite strings of their indeterminately prolific possible descendants.

Cheers,

Sid.

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