Decolonization without the Fall of France

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Futurist
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Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Futurist » 25 Nov 2018 00:01

If France doesn't fall in 1940, is decolonization still going to occur the same way that it occurred in real life?

For the record, I am thinking of two separate scenarios here:

1. France doesn't fall in 1940 and anti-Nazi German generals overthrow Hitler and the Nazis within a year. The two sides are then able to reach a compromise peace.

2. The scenario in #1, but with the sides being unable to reach a compromise peace and thus World War II becomes a long, drawn-out battle which ultimately results in Germany capitulating to Britain and France.

How would decolonization have proceeded in both of these scenarios?

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wm
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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by wm » 25 Nov 2018 12:29

The US supported decolonization and that wasn't going to change so it's going to happen anyway.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by maltesefalcon » 25 Nov 2018 19:02

The defeat of Belgium, France and the Netherlands certainly raised eyebrows in the colonies of these nations. However, there was also a possibility that they would simply switch one European master for another.

It was not until Japan got into the fray and bloodied the nose of Europe's armies in Asia that the attitude changed. It was seen that white European soldiers were not invincible and that Asian races could in fact have hope for self determination.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by South » 25 Nov 2018 20:13

Good afternoon Futurist,

Sidebar; Hope you're faring AOK in re the Malibu fires.

......

Re 1. "in the same way" - - - too many variables - What if Ho Chi Minh passed away without a replacement ?!

Re 2. Germany capitulating to the UK and France - exhausts France. Plus, as Wm mentioned, the US supported selected decolonization.

As an aside, do recall Arab nationalism started prior to 1940. Think of Algeria, Tunisia, French Morocco.

The French Congo couldn't withstand the upheavals.

I'll disregard the 6 small French islands offshore Newfoundland, Canada and Clipperton Island, west of Mexico. Tahiti governing the 2 French archipelago os was an exception for the benefit of both the US and Fr. New Caledonia: ditto.

Note that one of DeGaulle's first acts when declaring his new republic was to renounce and relinquish all French territorial claims in China.

Sidebar; recall the French Community of Nations, the British Commonwealth, the US' Compact of Free Association........not too much is new under the sun - except for some embroidery.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

Feet Notes:

I am now in the mood for a Lou XIII and an almond desert. I will settle for a Pastise (spelling) and something chocolate.

A French colleague of mine said that Tunis is now "more French" than Marseilles !

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Futurist » 26 Nov 2018 01:48

wm wrote:
25 Nov 2018 12:29
The US supported decolonization and that wasn't going to change so it's going to happen anyway.
Yes, the U.S. (at least nominally) opposed colonialism and supported decolonization. However, the U.S. also wasn't willing to do much to actually bring this about. For instance, when Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931, the U.S. was opposed to it but didn't take much--if any--action to actually reverse this outcome.

If France doesn't fall in 1940, the U.S. will continue with its isolationist mindset and, while condemning colonialism, probably isn't going to be very active in actually pushing other countries to abandon their colonies.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Futurist » 26 Nov 2018 01:54

South wrote:
25 Nov 2018 20:13
Good afternoon Futurist,

Sidebar; Hope you're faring AOK in re the Malibu fires.
Yeah, I'm fine. I live in Orange County, so the fires aren't that close to me. :)
......

Re 1. "in the same way" - - - too many variables - What if Ho Chi Minh passed away without a replacement ?!
I meant in the same way in the big picture of things.
Re 2. Germany capitulating to the UK and France - exhausts France. Plus, as Wm mentioned, the US supported selected decolonization.
Yes, Britain and France are going to be exhausted in the event of a long war. However, it's not a guarantee that the war will be long in this TL; after all, anti-Nazi German generals could see the writing on the wall and thus be willing to make significant concessions to bring the war to an early end.

Also, while the U.S. supported decolonization, it doesn't appear to have done much before WWII to actually bring this outcome about. For instance, President Wilson didn't complain much--if at all--about Britain's and France's colonial empires during the Versailles Peace Conference.
As an aside, do recall Arab nationalism started prior to 1940. Think of Algeria, Tunisia, French Morocco.
Yes, absolutely. Still, if Britain and France won't be exhausted, they could be in more of a position to resist--at least initially.
The French Congo couldn't withstand the upheavals.
Which upheavals are you talking about here?
I'll disregard the 6 small French islands offshore Newfoundland, Canada and Clipperton Island, west of Mexico. Tahiti governing the 2 French archipelago os was an exception for the benefit of both the US and Fr. New Caledonia: ditto.

Note that one of DeGaulle's first acts when declaring his new republic was to renounce and relinquish all French territorial claims in China.

Sidebar; recall the French Community of Nations, the British Commonwealth, the US' Compact of Free Association........not too much is new under the sun - except for some embroidery.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

Feet Notes:

I am now in the mood for a Lou XIII and an almond desert. I will settle for a Pastise (spelling) and something chocolate.

A French colleague of mine said that Tunis is now "more French" than Marseilles !
Just how much power do organizations such as the British Commonwealth actually have, though? I mean, the ex-Soviet countries have the Commonwealth of Independent States, but this Commonwealth is virtually powerless.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by South » 26 Nov 2018 09:19

Good morning Futurist,

Well received.

Glad to hear not affected by the Malibu fires.

In reply to your 2 questions:

1. French Congo and upheavals; The African continent was loaded with colonial possessions and the 2 Congos were part of this political environment.

2. Post colonial organizations eg British Commonwealth; It was economic power ie a trade bloc, inter alia / amongst other things. Look at the cabotage laws. Also, after the Treaty of Westminster, Canberra and Wellington got trade preferences.

The French Community: Ditto. France was purchasing Ivory Coast cocoa for 4 (four) times the market price........and these transactions weren't because of French benevolence.

Koror, Palau had a US postal zone (ZIP) code for many years until the veneer and charade was just too funny to maintain. The American Pacific lake, less areas west of the ten dash line and northern waters, was a US counterpart feature of our Atlantic Alliance partners.

The C.I.S. was governed by Moscow's "Near Abroad" policy. Without discussing-just as a benchmark reference- ... because it's too recent ... glance at the 2006 after-action photos of what happened at the NATO-funded port of Poti, Georgia.

Also recall the "enclaves". For example, South Ossetia, Transdniestria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Donetsk, Luhansk,... The Donetsk People's Republic.........let's hold our conference elsewhere.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Sid Guttridge » 27 Nov 2018 12:25

The war undoubtedly advanced decolonization, but it was already starting.

After WWI the victorious powers got League of Nations mandates, not new colonies. This had some practical military implications in WWII. For example, while Kenya RNVR vessels could be used anywhere and reached the Middle East and India, Tanganyika RNVR vessels could not leave their home waters. This was due to mandatory status applying in Tankanyika. In 1944 the TRNVR was disbanded.

The white Dominions had been consolidating since the 19th Century. Ireland got autonomy in 1923. The India Act began indianization of the Indian Army officer corps in the 1930s,

What WWII did was speed up the process, especially in India.

In haste,

Sid.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by wm » 27 Nov 2018 18:54

Futurist wrote:Yes, the U.S. (at least nominally) opposed colonialism and supported decolonization. However, the U.S. also wasn't willing to do much to actually bring this about. For instance, when Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931, the U.S. was opposed to it but didn't take much--if any--action to actually reverse this outcome.
What should the US have done?
The US was opposed to it, sent money, pilots, airplanes, was opposed even more till the Japanese got mad and 161,000 Americans lost their lives and 248,000 were wounded.
426,000 American casualties don't seem to be quite if any...

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by South » 27 Nov 2018 19:38

Good afternoon Sid,

Agree with the thrust of your above post.

Keep your helmet on...............however...

Did not Germany's Samoa transfer to New Zealand ? It wasn't a League mandate.

Japan's acquisition of Tsingtao, China was not a mandate.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by South » 28 Nov 2018 09:19

Good morning all,

Some more in re the Versailles' territory transfers:

For example, was Samoa a mandate or a protectorate of the British empire (via NZ) ? Lots of gallows humor involved in all this. Recall Danzig, Memel and Saar.

The Article 22 decisions were not all unanimous agreements per requirement. How do you say "a mess" auf all the languages ?!

Secretary of State Robert Lansing introduced an important point. The territorial transfers hid the/a real purpose. Without the mandates and other transfers, the relinquished territories would have been eligible (in theory, at least) to qualify as war reparations.

Summary:

Prepare for Part II: World War II.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

It's getting cold here in the land of Lord Fairfax. Let's discuss this in Southwest Africa.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Sid Guttridge » 28 Nov 2018 11:26

Hi South,

Samoa was a League of Nations Mandate to the UK, but the documentation setting it up stated that this mandate was to be exercised through New Zealand.

Tsingtao was never German territory. It was leased from China. The islands Japan acquired off Germany in the Pacific, by contrast, had been owned by Germany and became a League of Nations mandate.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by South » 28 Nov 2018 11:51

Good morning Sid,

I understand your points.

We're using different definitions.

All this is acceptable in the research of history as long as commentators explain their definitions and positions.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Futurist » 16 Jun 2019 01:20

I have a question, you guys: Do you think that India would have still gotten partitioned in either of these two scenarios?

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Re: Decolonization without the Fall of France

Post by Sid Guttridge » 17 Jun 2019 10:31

Hi Futurist,

The Muslim League adopted the Lahore Resolution calling for a separate Muslim State on 23 March 1940 - before the fall of France.

So the writing was already on the wall.

Cheers,

Sid.

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