Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

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Futurist
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Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by Futurist » 11 Jan 2019 00:43

Had Germany renewed its Reinsurance Treaty with Russia in 1890 and also offered Russia a formal alliance (as well as to cancel Germany's Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary) in exchange for Russian agreement to eventually partition Austria-Hungary between Germany, Russia, Italy, Serbia, and Romania, how exactly would Russia react to such a German offer?

Basically, I'm wondering as to whether there could have eventually been an alternate World War I had Kaiser Bill somehow had a personality change. Specifically, I am thinking of a WWI where Germany, Russia, Italy, Serbia, and Romania ally together to partition Austria-Hungary while Britain, France, the Austrians and Hungarians themselves, and possibly the Ottoman Empire as well try to stop the German-Russians from doing this.

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by Futurist » 11 Jan 2019 00:47

Also, obviously Kaiser Bill's personality change would have needed to include him becoming a Pan-German nationalist in Hitler's mold but without the rabid anti-Semitism. Basically, Kaiser Bill needs to view himself as a unifier of all ethnic Germans (whether Protestant or Catholic)--not as the representative of the Protestant Prussian elite.

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by Sheldrake » 11 Jan 2019 10:44

Bismarck's German Empire did not include Austria as Germany would have a majority of Catholics and Vienna would rival Berlin.

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by Terry Duncan » 11 Jan 2019 11:36

To be honest, Russia wouldn't want a discontented Magyar minority, and given the Magyars mostly controlled the wealth as well as being rather militant over their rights, the other nations would probably not relish being handed such a group either. As Sheldrake has mentioned, Austria was deliberately excluded from union with Germany in the 1866-1871 period due to the problems importing a large number of Catholics would cause for the new nation. Quite how this would stand in 1914 I don't know, it is possible the Catholic numbers would no longer be a majority, but it would still be close and the German state was not exactly the most wieldy creation or ruled by people willing or even able to change it. If the will had been there and the Junker problem been overcome, the next problem was that to renegotiate the set-up from 1871 would have allowed the other German states to question the succession to the role of Kaiser being hereditary as Wilhelm was not overly popular by then with the ruling classes. This was the reason the Germans ran out of money in the naval race, to get more money they would have needed to reset the terms for contributions to the budget. These were just some of the problems Germany had due to a political system for an 18thC monarchy trying to run a modern industrialised state.

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by South » 11 Jan 2019 11:45

Good morning Futurist,

In this era, was Trieste an Italian port city, a Hapsburg port city or an independent city-state ? ... or some other political status ?

If the French under Napoleon liked the Dalmatian Coast, Trieste was like a mini-Paris (I'm setting myself up for a fall !).

Could control of Trieste involve any influence of significance on trade routes, for example, Suez (1869) to/from Gibraltar ?

The new Italy's (not a "Republic" but a "Kingdom" as per the agreement to get the place unified,), King Victor Emmanuel II was not a member of the Roman Catholic Church. Related to this is Pope Leo (forgot number) considering moving to Trieste.

Thus, perhaps Russia would hold internal deliberations about antagonistic relationships with users of the Mediterranean trade link to the other routes.

~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

Personal Correspondence:
Salute Seniors Mazzini and Garibaldi:
If you come over here to visit, I know a place where they have real authentic Italian snow cones. It's in Little Italy, Manhattan, New York City.

Monsour Garibaldi; Didn't you already visit New York City ?

Warm regards,
Bob

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2019 13:03

Futurist wrote:
11 Jan 2019 00:43
Had Germany renewed its Reinsurance Treaty with Russia in 1890 and also offered Russia a formal alliance (as well as to cancel Germany's Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary) in exchange for Russian agreement to eventually partition Austria-Hungary between Germany, Russia, Italy, Serbia, and Romania, how exactly would Russia react to such a German offer?

Basically, I'm wondering as to whether there could have eventually been an alternate World War I had Kaiser Bill somehow had a personality change. Specifically, I am thinking of a WWI where Germany, Russia, Italy, Serbia, and Romania ally together to partition Austria-Hungary while Britain, France, the Austrians and Hungarians themselves, and possibly the Ottoman Empire as well try to stop the German-Russians from doing this.
And,why would Russia be receptive to a partition of AH ? There was no benefit for Russia in such a partition, only very big disadvantages .It would be suicidal for Russia .

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Re: Would Russia have been receptive to a partition of Austria-Hungary had Germany proposed it?

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2019 15:29

Sheldrake wrote:
11 Jan 2019 10:44
Bismarck's German Empire did not include Austria as Germany would have a majority of Catholics and Vienna would rival Berlin.
This was not the main reason : the main reason was that the annexation of Austria would result in the end of the AH empire and in the creation of a vacuum .
What would happen to Bosnia-Herzegovina, what would happen to Austrian Poland and Galicia, what would happen to the Sudeten Germans ? What about the Volksdeutsche in Romania, Hungary and Slovenia, what about South Tirol, what about the Slovenians in Austria ?

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