#10
Post
by Lkefct » 28 Jul 2004, 20:39
I think it depends on what you mean by doomed? In terms of raw #'s, the odds are fairly even. Japans early offensives, they never have an overwehlming numerical superiority. They where frqnetly able to achieve tactical superiority, but attackers are frquently able to do that. Yes the Japanese also have total control of the air, but Japanese do not have a large body of tactical aircraft for ground support. It means that PoW and Repulse are doomed if they ventured into range, but ground units did not suffer greatly in terms of tactial air support. I am assuming that there is some interdiction, and ground straffing type of actions going on, but that is not a great material advantage. The Japanese have tanks, and there are few in the Allied side. But it is not like Japanese tanks are a huge, powerful battlefield dominating vehicle.
I think the biggest problem is that the japanese where highly underestimated. They where decent tacticians, and very aggressive. It helped them to overcome a great many of their faults by simply beating the British to the punch time after time. Not letting them get put in poor tactical situations, like frontal assaults, and using a good deal of manuver helped them a great deal, but again, a more aggressive, and determined opponenet could turn the tide on them, and perhaps turn the tables.
It is my understanding the Austrilians did rather well, but where not employed until too late, and by then other British divisions where depleted and demoralized.
Also, I seem to recall that the Japanese where close to the end of their own supplies. The commander was actually considering withdrawing if he had not taken Singapore if his inital assault had failed. Strong out fortifications, and a more prolonged defense down the pennisula might have gone a long way towards delaying or even repulsing the Japanese invasion. They would certainly have had to come back, as a British force in Malaya would be unacceptible if they intended to remain in Burma. But the majority of the Japanese army is tied down in garrison duty in china, so they do not have unlimited resources.